| November 1990 THE EFFECT OF ECONOMIC EVENTS ON VOTES FOR PRESIDENT: 1988 UPDATE by (2008) | |||||||||||||
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| The equation that I have developed explaining votes for president predicted the 1988 election very well, and, as will be seen, updating the equation through the 1988 election has very little effect on it. This note can thus be short. The equation continues to show a remarkable forecasting ability and structural stability across time. It will help in reading the following to have read Fair (1988) first. The estimated equation for 1916-1988, estimated by ordinary least squares, is (t-statistics are in parentheses): v-.4021 +.0053.1 +.0424.DPER (11.70) (0.34) (2.74) | |||||||||||||
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