| Harvard Economic Service (HES) issued (2008) | |||||||||||||
Abstract | |||||||||||||
| War the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long should it haue taken contemporary forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? Data assembled by the Harvard and Yale forecasters-together with modern historical data-are subjected to statistical analysis. Neither contemporary fore-casters nor modern times-series ana(vsts could have forecast the large declines in output following the Crash. James Tobin relates the following story, which was told to him and other members of | |||||||||||||
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