| Study Contract: B4-3040/2001/325703/MAR/E.1 for the DG Environment Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways: Executive summary (2003) | |||||||||||||
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| (Note: this text is based on the executive summary of the Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways Policymakers Summary) The long-term objective of the European Union climate policy is to prevent global mean temperature rising by more than 2°C over pre-industrial levels. Without policy induced constraints this target will be missed by a substantial margin. According to model-based estimates and projections, if no further action to control emissions is taken concentrations of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere may increase from 425 parts per million volume (ppmv) CO2-equivalent today to 935 ppmv CO2-equivalent in 2100. This could cause global temperature to rise by more than 3°C by 2100. To explore the implications of the EU climate target, two constrained global emission profiles have been developed. They correspond to stabilising the total greenhouse gas concentration at levels of 550 and 650 ppmv in CO2 equivalent, for the set of six greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol. These profiles are hereafter referred to as S550e and S650e. The range of the temperature rise associated with these two emission profiles depends on the uncertainty about the ‘climate sensitivity ’ parameter, which is defined as the global average temperature rise resulting from doubling CO2 concentrations. The Intergovernmental | |||||||||||||
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