Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates (2009)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates (2009)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates (2009)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues (2008)
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues (2008)
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Towards pervasive computing in health care – A literature review (2008)
Orwat, Carsten, Graefe, Andreas, Faulwasser, Timm
Abstract Background The evolving concepts of pervasive computing, ubiquitous computing and ambient intelligence are increasingly influencing health care and medicine. Summarizing published research,...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe
The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten,...
Prediction Markets – Defining Events and Motivating Participation
Andreas extends Carol Gebert’s discussion of the hurdles to implementation of prediction markets (issue 9) with his thoughts on defining the prediction event and the often delicate issue of the...
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán
At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and...
Andreas Graefe, Christof Weinhardt
While prediction markets have become increasingly popular to forecast the near-term future, the literature provides little evidence on how they perform for long-term problems. For assessing the...
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....