Andrew K. Rose

JEL Classification Number: F31. (2007)

One of the luxuries of academic life is the ability to ignore problems that cannot be easily solved. Since I get to choose the focus of my research, I try to choose interesting and important...

Andrew Rose, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz, Charles Wyplosz

Speculative attacks tend to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass “contagiously ” from one country to another. The paper provides a survey of the theoretical...

the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade: A MetaAnalysis (2004)

Do we really know that the WTO increases trade (2004)

Twenty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 443 point estimates of the effect. This paper is a quantitative attempt to summarize the current state...

I Thank Kyle Bagwell, Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, Rob Feenstra, Jeff Frankel, Hans Genberg, ...

Harrison for data assistance; and the HKMA, the MAS and Princeton University for hospitality and helpful seminar feedback. Asher Isaac and an EASE 13 paper by David Li and Changqi Wu inspired me. The...

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (2003)

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (2003)

http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/03_15.pdf

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade? (2003)

http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/03_15.pdf

Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality (2003)

http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/03_15.pdf

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade (2002)

We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country’s environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of...

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade (2002)

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade (2002)

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade (2002)

http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/02_18.pdf

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade (2002)

http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/02_18.pdf

given to the source. Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality (2002)

http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/02_18.pdf

Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose, Edward Parson, Rob Stavins, M. Scott Taylor, Geoffrey Williamson, ...

International Economics seminars, all three at Harvard. Frankel would also like to acknowledge support from the Savitz Family Fund for Environmental and Natural Resource Policy. The views expressed...

Putting Things in Order: Patterns of Trade Dynamics and Growth Robert C. Feenstra and Andrew K. Rose* (2000)

May Draft Comments, Robert C. Feenstra, Robert C. Feenstra, Andrew K. Rose, Andrew K. Rose

We develop a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using dis-aggregated American imports data. We find strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent with...

Using The Gravity Equation To Differentiate Among Alternative Theories Of Trade (1999)

James A. Markusen, Robert C. Feenstra, Robert C. Feenstra, Professor James, R. Markusen, Andrew K. Rose, ...

One of the most enduring results of empirical international economics is that a simple gravity equation explains a great deal about the data on bilateral trade flows. This is consistent with several...

Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods (1998)

James A. Markusen, Robert C. Feenstra, Robert C. Feenstra, Professor James, R. Markusen, Andrew K. Rose, ...

This paper argues that the theoretical foundations for the gravity equation are general, while the empirical performance of the gravity equation is specific to the type of goods examined. Most...

Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?, European Economic Review 41 (1997)

Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose, Andrew K. Rose

Yes. A country’s suitability for EMU entry depends on the intensity of trade with EMU members, and the extent to which its business cycles are correlated with those of other members. But both...

JEL Classification Number: F34. (1997)

Barry Eichengreen, Andrew Rose, Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose

We analyze banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than one hundred developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are...

Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates (1995)

Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose

We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory...

DYNAMIC PERSISTENCE OF INDUSTRY TRADE BALANCES: HOW PERVASIVE IS THE PRODUCT CYCLE? (1995)

GAGNON, JOSEPH E., ROSE, ANDREW K.

Size Really Doesn't Matter: In Search of a National Scale Effect

Explaining Forward Exchange Bias .... Intra-day

I search for a 'scale' effect in countries. I use a panel data set that includes 200 countries over forty years and link the population of a country to a host of economic and social phenomena. Using...

Lyons, Richard K, Rose, Andrew K

Intra-day interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This...

Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System

Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K, Wyplosz, Charles

This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange...

Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal

Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K, Wyplosz, Charles

This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behaviour, especially in monetary policy....

The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion

Offshore financial centers: parasites or symbionts?

As communication costs fall, foreign embassies and consulates have lost much of their role in decision-making and information-gathering. Accordingly, foreign services are increasingly marketing...

This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries....

Cities and Countries

Understanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods

If one ranks cities by population, the rank of a city is inversely related to its size, a well-documented phenomenon known as Zipf's Law. Further, the growth rate of a city's population is...

Feenstra, Robert, Markusen, James R., Rose, Andrew K

This paper argues that the theoretical foundations for the gravity equation are general, while the empirical performance of the gravity equation is specific to the type of goods examined. Most...

Empirical research on nominal exchange rates

Frankel, Jeffrey A., Rose, Andrew K., G. M. Grossman, K. Rogoff

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Darvas, Zsolt, Rose, Andrew K, Szapáry, György

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is,...

Offshore Financial Centers: Parasites or Symbionts?

Andrew K. Rose, Mark Spiegel

This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries....

Estimating the Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution: Exploiting Idiosyncratic Risk

Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy

This paper develops a simple but general methodology to estimate the expected intertemporal marginal rate of substitution or "EMRS", using only data on asset prices and returns. Our empirical...

Antonio Fatas, Ilian Mihov, Andrew K. Rose

We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms: exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation...

Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: A systematic exploitation of idiosyncratic risk

Flood, Robert P., Rose, Andrew K.

Financial Integration: A New Methodology And An Illustration

An empirical exploration of exchange-rate target-zones

This paper develops a simple methodology to test for asset integration, and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique relies on estimating and comparing expected risk-free...

Flood, Robert P., Rose, Andrew K., Mathieson, Donald J.

PUTTING THINGS IN ORDER: PATTERNS OF TRADE DYNAMICS AND GROWTH

Robert C. Feenstra, Andrew K. Rose

We develop a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using dis-aggregated American imports data. We find strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent with...

One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, György Szapáry

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is,...

Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

A NEW APPROACH TO ASSET INTEGRATION: METHODOLOGY AND MYSTERY

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of...

A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Bretton Woods, Reversed

This paper develops a new methodology to test financial market integration. Our technique is based on an intertemporal asset-pricing model, and relies on estimating and comparing expected discount...

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defense in the 1990s

A stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s. A large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by...

Offshore Financial Centres: Parasites or Symbionts?

Interest rate policy , Exchange rates , Financial crisis , Developed countries , Developing countries , Economic models ,

This paper analyses the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behaviour in source countries....

Cities and Countries

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

If one ranks cities by population, the rank of a city is inversely related to its size, a well-documented phenomenon known as Zipf's Law. Further, the growth rate of a city's population is...

Zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, György Szapáry

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is,...

Checking Out: Exits from Currency Unions

Speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates: an empirical exploration with special reference to the European Monetary System

This paper studies the characteristics of departures from monetary unions. During the post-war period, almost seventy distinct countries or territories have left a currency union, while over sixty...

Exchange rate instability: determinants and predictability

This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange...

Richard A. Meese, Andrew K. Rose

The paper is concerned with exchange rate instability, by which we mean large changes in exchange rates. The paper has two objectives. First, we search for plausible determinants of currency crashes....

Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate

Andrew K. Rose, Saktiandi Supaat

We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing...

Contagious Currency Crises

Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K, Wyplosz, Charles

This paper is concerned with the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tend to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass ‘contagiously’ from one country to...

Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises

Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K

We analyse banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than 100 developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are strongly...

Well-Being in the Small and in the Large

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Is it better to live in a big county than a small country? In this paper I examine whether economic and social conditions vary systematically with the population of a country. Economics provides a...

Zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, GyÃ¶rgy SzapÃ¡ry

Using a panel of 21 OECD countries and 40 years of annual data, we find that countries with similar government budget positions tend to have business cycles that fluctuate more closely. That is,...

A Stable International Monetary System Emerges: Inflation Targeting is Bretton Woods, Reversed

Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market

A stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s. A large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by...

East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union

macroeconomics, Job Switching, Job Satisfaction, U.S. Labor Market

George A. Akerlof, Andrew K. Rose, Janet L. Yellen, Helga Hessenius

macroeconomics, East Germany, currency union

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade

National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union

IMF; sovereignty; trade policy

Andrew K. Rose, Eric Van Wincoop

Nonlinear, Nonparametric, Nonessential Exchange Rate Estimation.

Meese, Richard A, Rose, Andrew K

European exchange rate credibility before the fall: the case of sterling

Are all devaluations alike?

European Monetary System (Organization) ; Foreign exchange rates

Dynamic measures of competitiveness: are the geese still flying in formation?

Foreign exchange - Law and legislation

How do currency crises spread?

Competition ; Japan ; International trade ; East Asia

Is there a case for an Asian Monetary Fund?

Foreign exchange rates ; Asia ; Mexico ; International trade ; European Monetary System (Organization) ; Financial crises - Asia ; Financial crises - Mexico

Do currency unions increase trade? A "gravity" approach

Money ; Asia ; Monetary policy ; East Asia

Are exchange rates macroeconomic phenomena?

Trade ; Money

Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence

This paper argues that macroeconomic variables are relatively unimportant determinants of exchange rates. The argument hinges on the fact that bilateral exchange rate volatility differs widely across...

A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number...

Offshore financial centers: parasites or symbionts?

One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with...

Non-economic engagement and international exchange: the case of environmental treaties

This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries....

Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria.

We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...

After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency...

Currency Unions and International Integration.

This paper addresses the issue of whether regimes of fixed exchange rates are a mechanism for shifting volatility inter-temporally. Using a panel of data covering twenty industrialized countries from...

Rose, Andrew K, Engel, Charles

This paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc Zone). We empirically explore different features of currency unions, and compare them to...

Fixing exchange rates A virtual quest for fundamentals

Flood, Robert P., Rose, Andrew K.

Is there a J-curve?

Rose, Andrew K., Yellen, Janet L.

Contagion and trade: Why are currency crises regional?

Glick, Reuven, Rose, Andrew K.

Explaining exchange rate volatility: an empirical analysis of 'the holy trinity' of monetary independence, fixed exchange rates, and capital mobility

An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs

Ostry, Jonathan D., Rose, Andrew K.

A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade *

Andrew K. Rose, T. D. Stanley

Thirty-four recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of this effect. This paper uses meta-analysis to combine, explain, and to...

One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade

Currency unions and trade: the effect is large

A Review of Some of the Economic Contributions of Robert A. Mundell, Winner of the 1999 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics.

The impact of a common currency on trade can be grossly mismeasured if countries that belong to currency unions are systematically different from those that do not, and if the relationship between...

Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate during the EMS, 1979-93.

Rose, Andrew K, Svensson, Lars E O

Expected rates of devaluation for the French franc/Deutsche mark exchange rate during the EMS are estimated using the 'drift adjustment' method. Exchange rates within the band display strong mean...

The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion

California agriculture and an emerging Mexico

As communication costs fall, foreign embassies and consulates have lost much of their role in decision-making and information-gathering. Accordingly, foreign services are increasingly marketing...

Feenstra, Robert C., Rose, Andrew K.

Explaining Forward Exchange Bias . . . Intraday.

Lyons, Richard K, Rose, Andrew K

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This...

Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes

Mihov, Ilian, Rose, Andrew K

We compare the duration and performance of different monetary regimes, especially the contrast between countries those that fix exchange rates and those that target inflation. Inflation targeting is...

East Germany in from the Cold: The Economic Aftermath of Currency Union

George A. Akerlof, Andrew K. Rose, Janet L. Yellen, Helga Hessenius

macroeconomics, East Germany, currency union

Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis

macroeconomics, Job Switching, Job Satisfaction, U.S. Labor Market

Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade? Reply

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in the 1990s...

Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy

ANTONIO FATÁS, ILIAN MIHOV, ANDREW K. ROSE

We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit "de jure" quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms: exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation...

Using the gravity equation to differentiate among alternative theories of trade

Robert C. Feenstra, James R. Markusen, Andrew K. Rose

The simple gravity equation explains a great deal about the data on bilateral trade flows and is consistent with several theoretical models of trade. We argue that alternative theories nevertheless...

Job Switching and Job Satisfaction in the U.S. Labor Market

Honey, the Currency Union Effect on Trade Hasn't Blown Up

macroeconomics, Job Switching, Job Satisfaction, U.S. Labor Market

Quantitative goals for monetary policy.

Antonio Fatás, Ilian Mihov, Andrew K. Rose

We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms - exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation...

A stable international monetary system emerges: Inflation targeting is Bretton Woods, reversed

Fertility and the Real Exchange Rate

Rose, Andrew K, Supaat, Saktiandi

We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically a country experiencing...

International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility

Quantitative Goals for Monetary Policy

This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are further from major locations of...

Fatás, Antonio, Mihov, Ilian, Rose, Andrew K

We study empirically the macroeconomic effects of an explicit de jure quantitative goal for monetary policy. Quantitative goals take three forms: exchange rates, money growth rates, and inflation...

Why Has Trade Grown Faster than Income?

Well-Being in the Small and in the Large

Trade of the OECD countries has grown faster than income during the postwar period. This paper tests a number of different hypotheses for the observed growth in the trade/income ratio. For small open...

Why so Glum? The Meese-Rogoff Methodology Meets the Stock Market

Is it better to live in a big country than a small one? In this paper, I examine whether economic and social conditions vary systematically with the population of a country. Economics provides a...

International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility

This paper applies the Meese-Rogoff (1983a) methodology to the stock market. We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of various time-series and fundamentals-based models of aggregate stock...

An Empirical Assessment of Non-linearities in Models of Exchange Rate Determination.

This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are further from major locations of...

Meese, Richard A, Rose, Andrew K

This paper examines the empirical relation between nominal exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals for five major OECD countries between 1974 and 1987. Five theoretical models of exchange rate...

Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?

Size really doesn't matter: In search of a national scale effect

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements - the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and...

Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence

Glick, Reuven, Rose, Andrew K.

Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?

European exchange rate credibility before the fall

Rose, Andrew K., Svensson, Lars E. O.

Domestic savings and intra-national capital flows

Bayoumi, Tamim A., Rose, Andrew K.

Do WTO members have more liberal trade policy?

Empirical exchange rate models

Engel, Charles, Rogers, John H., Rose, Andrew K.

Intranational Economics and International Economics

Bacchetta, Philippe, Rose, Andrew K., Van Wincoop, Eric

Introduction to the symposium on the Japanese economic slump of the 1990s

Kashyap, Anil, Rose, Andrew K.

The Journal of International Economics at Fifty: A Retrospective1

Feenstra, Robert C., Rose, Andrew K.

Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment

A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries

The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?

Sterling's ERM credibility : Did the dog bark in the night?

Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries

Okun's ladder reexamined

Four paradoxes in GNP

Forward implications of a simple stochastic asset market model

Testing for 'news' in foreign exchange markets

Inter-market efficiency and the foreign exchange market

Selody, Jack G., Rose, Andrew K.

Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS

Rose, Andrew K, Svensson, Lars E O

An empirical model of time-varying realignment in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest rate differentials and...

A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis: The Interest Rate Defence in the 1990s

Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean-reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years. The...

A Gravity Model of International Lending: Trade, Default and Credit

This Paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for twenty-three developing and developed countries through the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in...

Noise trading and exchange rate regimes

One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with...

Olivier Jeanne, Andrew K Rose

Both the literature and new empirical evidence show that exchange rate regimes differ primarily by the noisiness of the exchange rate, not by measurable macroeconomic fundamentals. This motivates a...

Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics.

Contagion and trade: why are currency crises regional?

Tariffs and the macroeconomy: evidence from the USA

Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above...

Andrew K. Rose, Jonathan D. Ostry

Tariff ; Balance of trade ; Foreign exchange rates

An empirical assessment of non-linearities in models of exchange rate determination

Richard A. Meese, Andrew K. Rose

Foreign exchange rates

Why hasn't trade grown faster than income? Inter-industry trade over the past century

Joseph E. Gagnon, Andrew K. Rose

Income ; International trade

Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones

Robert P. Flood, Andrew K. Rose, Donald J. Mathieson

European Economic Community ; Foreign exchange rates

Why has trade grown faster than income?

Expected and predicted realignments: the FF/DM exchange rate during the EMS

Income ; International trade

Andrew K. Rose, Lars E.O. Svensson

European Monetary System (Organization) ; Foreign exchange rates

How pervasive is the product cycle? The empirical dynamics of American and Japanese trade flows

Joseph E. Gagnon, Andrew K. Rose

International trade ; Japan

Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange...

Waiting for work

Exchange rate instability: determinants and predictability

Labor supply ; Unemployment

Richard A. Meese, Andrew K. Rose

Foreign exchange ; Money

One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade

Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency

This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors...

Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals

Everyone studying EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU...

European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall

Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. The volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as money and output, does not change very much across exchange rate regimes, however. This...

Rose, Andrew K, Svensson, Lars E O

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analysed for European exchange rates using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find...

Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity

Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle

This paper uses a panel of data from 22 countries between 1967 and 1992 to explore the trade-off between the `Holy Trinity' of fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility....

After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-temporal Volatility Trade-offs?

Regressions of ex-post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high interest rate currency tends to appreciate - the `forward discount...

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators

This paper addresses the issue of whether regimes of fixed exchange rates are a mechanism for shifting volatility inter-temporally. Using a panel of data covering 20 industrialized countries from...

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971–92 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that...

Putting Things in Order: Patterns of Trade Dynamics and Macroeconomics

A country’s suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity or trade with other potential members of the currency...

Feenstra, Robert, Rose, Andrew K

This paper develops a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using disaggregated US imports data. It finds strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent...

Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility Without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics

Contagion and Trade: Why are Currency Crises Regional

Exchange rate regimes differ primarily by the activity of the exchange rate, not observable macroeconomic ‘fundamentals’. Fixed exchange rates are typically stable and floating exchange rates are...

Glick, Reuven, Rose, Andrew K

Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above...

Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes

Jeanne, Olivier, Rose, Andrew K

Both the literature and new empirical evidence show that exchange rate regimes differ primarily by the noisiness of the exchange rate, not by measurable macroeconomic fundamentals. This motivates a...

One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade

An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. The panel data set used includes bilateral observations for five years...

Currency Unions and International Integration

Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency...

Engel, Charles M, Rose, Andrew K

This Paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc zone and the East Caribbean Currency Area). We empirically explore different features of...

Do Monetary Handcuffs Restrain Leviathan? Fiscal Policy in Extreme Exchange Rate Regimes

Fatás, Antonio, Rose, Andrew K

This Paper is an empirical study of fiscal policy in countries with extreme monetary regimes. We study members of multilateral currency unions, dollarized countries that officially use the money of...

Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence

Glick, Reuven, Rose, Andrew K

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering over 230 countries from 1948-97. During this sample over one hundred...

One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

This Paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors...

Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?

This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and...

Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?

This Paper uses 67 measures of trade policy and trade liberalization to ask if membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)...

A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade

This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of three multilateral organizations intended to increase trade: 1) the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the Generalized...

Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

34 recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of the effect. This Paper is a quantitative attempt to summarize the current state of...

Estimating the Expected Marginal Rate of Substitution: Exploiting Idiosyncratic Risk

This Paper develops a simple new methodology to test for asset integration and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique is tightly based on a general intertemporal...

The Foreign Service and Foreign Trade: Embassies as Export Promotion

This Paper develops a simple but general methodology to estimate the expected intertemporal marginal rate of substitution or ‘EMRS’, using only data on asset prices and returns. Our empirical...

An Alternative Approach to the American Demand for Money.

As communication costs fall, foreign embassies and consulates have lost much of their role in decision-making and information-gathering. Accordingly, foreign services are increasingly marketing...

Noise Trading And Exchange Rate Regimes

Olivier Jeanne, Andrew K. Rose

Policy-makers often justify their choice of fixed exchange rate regimes as a shelter against nonfundamental influences in the foreign exchange market. This paper proposes a framework, based on...

Putting Things In Order: Trade Dynamics And Product Cycles

Robert C. Feenstra, Andrew K. Rose

We develop a procedure to rank-order objects using censored panel data sets. We illustrate this by ranking countries and commodities using disaggregated American import data and find evidence that...

Fixes: Of the Forward Discount Puzzle.

Exchange Market Efficiency: A Semi-strong Test Using Multiple Markets and Daily Data.

Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high-interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the 'forward discount...

Rose, Andrew K, Selody, Jack G

Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality

Uncovered Interest Parity in Crisis

We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of the...

An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

This paper tests for uncovered interest parity (UIP) using daily data for 23 developing and developed countries during the crisis-strewn 1990s. We find that UIP works better on average in the 1990s...

Robert P. Flood, Donald J. Mathieson, Andrew K. Rose

Exchange rates , Target zones , European Monetary System , Interest rates , Economic models ,

Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

Dynamic Persistence of Industry Trade Balances: How Pervasive Is the Product Cycle?

This paper develops a simple methodology to test for asset integration, and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique relies on estimating and comparing expected risk-free...

Gagnon, Joseph E, Rose, Andrew K

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral data for six countries, disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. The purpose of the paper is to...

Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes

Mihov, Ilian, Rose, Andrew K.

We compare the duration and performance of different monetary regimes, especially the contrast between countries those that fix exchange rates and those that target inflation. Inflation targeting is...

Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income

We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...

Frankel, Jeffrey, Rose, Andrew K.

Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions and currency boards stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates income. This paper estimates the...

Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality

Frankel, Jeffrey, Rose, Andrew K.

We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of the...

International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility

One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade

This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are further from major locations of...

Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?

This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors...

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and...

Waiting for Work

An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

This paper explains upward job mobility and observed patterns of unemployment by skill as an economy recovers from a recession. Skilled unemployment is due to rational waiting by workers looking for...

Robert P. Flood, Andrew K. Rose, Donald J. Mathieson

In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for...

How Pervasive is the Product Cycle? The Empirical Dynamics of American and Japanese Trade Flows

Joseph E. Gagnon, Andrew K. Rose

This paper looks for dynamic patterns in international trade flows using comprehensive multilateral American and Japanese data disaggregated to the four-digit SITC level. Little evidence is found of...

European Exchange Rate Credibility Before the Fall

Andrew K. Rose, Lars E.O. Svensson

Realignment expectations which measure exchange rate credibility are analyzed for European exchange rates, using daily financial data since the inception of the EMS. It is difficult to find...

Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals

Exchange Rate Volatility, Monetary Policy, and Capital Mobility: Empirical Evidence on the Holy Trinity

Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. But the volatility of macroeconomic variables such as money and output does not change very much across exchange rate regimes. This...

A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates

This paper uses a panel of data from twenty-two countries between 1967 and 1992 to explore the tradeoff between the 'Holy Trinity' of fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital...

Speculative Attacks on Pegged Exchange Rates: An Empirical Exploration with Special Reference to the European Monetary System

We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory...

Fixes: Of The Forward Discount Puzzle

This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange...

Explaining Forward Exchange Bias..Intraday

Regressions of ex post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high- interest rate currency tends to appreciate, the `forward discount...

Richard K. Lyons, Andrew K. Rose

Intraday interest rates are zero. Consequently, a foreign exchange dealer can short a vulnerable currency in the morning, close this position in the afternoon, and never face an interest cost. This...

A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries

After the Deluge: Do Fixed Exchange Rates Allow Inter-Temporal Volatility Tradeoffs?

Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean- reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years....

Expected and Predicted Realignments: The FF/DM Exchange Rate During the EMS

This paper addresses the issue of whether regimes of fixed exchange rates are a mechanism for shifting volatility inter- temporally. Using a panel of data covering twenty industrialized countries...

Andrew K. Rose, Lars E.O. Svensson

An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and...

Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators

Contagious Currency Crises

We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange...

The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria

This paper is concerned with the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tends to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass contagiously from one country to another....

Putting Things in Order: Patterns of Trade Dynamics and Growth

A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency...

Robert C. Feenstra, Andrew K. Rose

We develop a procedure to rank-order countries and commodities using dis-aggregated American imports data. We find strong evidence that both countries and commodities can be ranked, consistent with...

Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises

Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose

We analyze banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than one hundred developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are...

Undertstanding the Home Market Effect and the Gravity Equation: The Role of Differentiating Goods

Robert C. Feenstra, James A. Markusen, Andrew K. Rose

This paper argues that the theoretical foundations for the gravity equation are general, while the empirical performance of the gravity equation is specific to the type of goods examined. Most...

Contagion and Trade: Why Are Currency Crises Regional?

Risks to Lenders and Borrowers in International Capital Markets

Currency crises tend to be regional; they affect countries in geographic proximity. This suggests that patterns of international trade are important in understanding how currency crises spread, above...

Benjamin E. Hermalin, Andrew K. Rose

This paper provides a framework for understanding the risks to borrowers and lenders in capital markets. We begin with a description of a capital markets in a domestic context. This allows us to...

Noise Trading and Exchange Rate Regimes

Olivier Jeanne, Andrew K. Rose

Both the literature and new empirical evidence show that exchange rate regimes differ primarily by the noisiness of the exchange rate, not be measurable macroeconomic fundamentals. This motivates a...

One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade

Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output

A gravity model is used to assess the separate effects of exchange rate volatility and currency unions on international trade. The panel data set used includes bilateral observations for five years...

Currency Unions and International Integration

Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency...

Andrew K. Rose, Charles Engel

This paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc zone and the East Caribbean Currency Area). We empirically explore different features of...

Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence

One Reason Countries Pay their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number...

Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality

This paper estimates the effect of sovereign debt renegotiation on international trade. Sovereign default may be associated with a subsequent decline in international trade either because creditors...

Do We Really Know that the WTO Increases Trade?

What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? Some have observed an apparent positive correlation between openness to trade and measures of environmental quality....

A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default and Credit

This paper estimates the effect on international trade of multilateral trade agreements: the World Trade Organization (WTO), its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and...

Do WTO Members have More Liberal Trade Policy?

One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with...

Financial Integration: A New Methodology and an Illustration

This paper uses 68 measures of trade policy and trade liberalization to ask if membership in theWorld Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) is...

Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?

This paper develops a simple new methodology to test for asset integration and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique is tightly based on a general intertemporal...

Size Really Doesn't Matter: In Search of a National Scale Effect

I examine the hypothesis that membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) has increased the stability and predictability of...

Monetary Policy under Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, NBER-EASE, Volume 15

I search for a %u201Cscale%u201D effect in countries. I use a panel data set that includes 200 countries over forty years and link the population of a country to a host of economic and social...

International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17)

Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16

Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 18

International Seminar on Macroeconomics

Andrew K. Rose, Guido Tabellini

Growth and Productivity in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 13

International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17)

International Trade in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 14

Fertility and the real exchange rate

Andrew K. Rose, Saktiandi Supaat, Jacob Braude

We use a quinquennial data set covering 87 countries between 1975 and 2005 to investigate empirically the relationship between fertility and the real effective exchange rate. Theoretically, a country...

Noneconomic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties

ANDREW K. ROSE, MARK M. SPIEGEL

We examine the role of noneconomic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...

The Olympic Effect

Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible...

The Olympic effect

Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible...

The Olympic Effect

Front matter, International Trade in East Asia

Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible...

Does It Pay to Defend against a Speculative Attack?

Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose

Introduction to "Financial Sector Development in the Pacific Rim, East Asia Seminar on Economics Volume 18"

Introduction to "Growth and Productivity in East Asia, NBER-East Asia Seminar on Economics, Volume 13"

Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal

Front matter, acknowledgments

List of Contributors, Indexes

Fiscal Divergence and Business Cycle Synchronization: Irresponsibility is Idiosyncratic

Zsolt Darvas, Andrew K. Rose, Gyorgy Szapary

Contagious Currency Crises: Channels of Conveyance

Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose

Front matter, Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim

Introduction

Risks to Lenders and Borrowers in International Capital Markets

Benjamin Hermalin, Andrew K. Rose, Peter M. Garber, Andrew Crockett, David W. Mullins, Jr

Introduction to EASE-15: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim

Front matter, acknowledgments, table of contents

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

Inflation Targeting and Business Cycle Synchronization

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of...

Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning

Inflation targeting seems to have a small but positive effect on the synchronization of business cycles; countries that target inflation seem to have cycles that move slightly more closely with...

International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of...

Rose, Andrew K., Spiegel, Mark M.

This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are farther from major locations of...

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a crosssection of 107...

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of...

Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: International Linkages and American Exposure

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85...

Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?

This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85...

Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: international linkages and American exposure

The enormity of the current financial collapse raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted. This is the second of two Economic Letters on the topic. This Letter examines research...