Understanding West German Economic Growth in the 1950s (2008)
Eichengreen, Barry, Ritschl, Albrecht
We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent literature has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimizing the importance...
Understanding West German Economic Growth in the 1950s (2008)
Eichengreen, Barry, Ritschl, Albrecht
We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent literature has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimizing the importance...
Comments and Discussion (2008)
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity - 2008, 1
2001), ‘Flight to quality: investor risk tolerance and the spread of emerging market crises (2008)
Flight To Quality, Barry Eichengreen, Galina Hale, Ashoka Mody
INTRODUCTION The financial crises of the 1990s have raised new concerns about the operation of international financial markets. Prominent among these are worries about sharp changes in investor...
Kee-hong Bae, G. Andrew Karolyi, René M. Stulz, Thank Tom Santner, Mark Berliner, Bob Leone, ...
A new approach to measuring financial contagion
Marc Busch, William R. Clark, Benjamin J. Cohen, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffry Frieden, Stephen Krasner, ...
for very helpful comments.
JEL Classification Number: F31. (2007)
Andrew Rose, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz, Charles Wyplosz
Speculative attacks tend to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass “contagiously ” from one country to another. The paper provides a survey of the theoretical...
1. Introduction The Future of Global Financial Markets 1 (2006)
Forecasting is always difficult, especially when it involves the future. More than
The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets (2005)
Eichengreen, Barry, Kletzer, Kenneth, Mody, Ashoka
The IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows to emerging markets by providing public monitoring and emergency finance. In analyzing its role we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do...
How China is Reorganizing the World Economy (2005)
Barry Eichengreen And, Barry Eichengreen, Hui Tong, Bank Of England
This paper contains the views of the authors and should not be thought to represent those of the Bank of England. Executive Summary China's emergence is clearly one of the most important forces...
2005), “Is china’s FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?” NBER Working Paper no.11335 (2005)
Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, Hui Tong, Hui Tong, ...
We analyze how China's emergence as a destination for foreign direct investment is affecting the ability of other countries to attract FDI. We do so using an approach that accounts for the...
Do we really know that the WTO increases trade (2004)
Richard Baldwin, Barry Eichengreen, Rob Feenstra, Jeff Frankel, Hans Genberg, ...
Harrison for data assistance; and the HKMA, the MAS and Princeton University for hospitality and helpful seminar feedback. Asher Isaac and an EASE 13 paper by David Li and Changqi Wu inspired me. The...
Institutions for Fiscal Stability (2004)
This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability and Growth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental causes of...
The Accession Economies' Rocky Road to the Euro (2003)
Now that the decision has been taken to admit to the European Union eight of what were once called the transition economies, attention has naturally turned to whether these countries should also join...
Institutions for Fiscal Stability (2003)
This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability and Growth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental causes of...
The Euro Through a Glass Darkly (2003)
On January 1st, Europe's monetary union will celebrate its fifth anniversary. Congratulations are not exactly pouring in. For going on two years, growth in the countries of the Euro Area has been...
Crisis Resolution: Next Steps (2003)
Eichengreen, Barry, Kletzer, Kenneth, Mody, Ashoka
At the spring 2003 meetings of the IMF and World Bank it was decided to push ahead with the contractual approach to smoothing the process of sovereign debt restructuring by encouraging the more...
Why Has There Been Less Financial Integration In Asia Than In Europe? (2003)
Eichengreen, Barry, Park, Yung Chul
This paper inquires into the causes of the contrasting experiences between Asia and Europe and asks what they bode for the future. It poses questions like: Is the contrast explicable in terms of the...
Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They are Not the Same and Why it (2003)
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza, ...
The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of
1. Introduction Whither Europe? 1 (2003)
Introduction Where I live, on the West Coast of the United States, and teach, at the University of California, Europe seems far away. Geographically we are closer to Latin America and Asia....
Prepared For The, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee, Barry Eichengreen
proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental problems for fiscal policy --- public enterprises that are too big to fail, unfunded public pension...
Barry Eichengreen Revised, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee, Barry Eichengreen
This paper reviews the controversy over Europe's Stability and Growth Pact and offers a proposal for its reform. It argues that Europe would be best served by focusing on the fundamental causes...
Working Paper PEIF-13 The Accession Economies ’ Rocky Road to the Euro by (2003)
Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee, Barry Eichengreen
Now that the decision has been taken to admit to the European Union eight of what were once called the transition economies, attention has naturally turned to whether these countries should also join...
Lessons of the Euro for the Rest of the World (2002)
Europe's single currency is widely invoked as a potential solution to the monetary and exchange rate problems of other regions, including Asia, Latin America, North America and even Africa. This...
The Enlargement Challenge: Can Monetary Union be Made to Work in an EU of 25 Members? (2002)
This lecture considers how Europe's monetary union will evolve in the next five to ten years. It concentrates on what is likely to be the most important change in that period, namely, the increasing...
Lessons of the Euro for the Rest of the World 1 (2002)
Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, George C. Pardee, Political Science, Barry Eichengreen
Europe’s single currency is widely invoked as a potential solution to the monetary and exchange rate problems of other regions, including Asia, Latin America, North America and even Africa. This...
Still Fettered After All These Years 1 (2002)
Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen, Jel No. F, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen
The last decade has seen an outpouring of scholarship on the economics of the Great Depression. If there is anything approaching a consensus, it is a synthetic view which admits a role both for...
Eichengreen, Barry, Ghironi, Fabio
We speculate about how Europe's monetary union will evolve in the next five to ten years. We concentrate on what is likely to be the most important change in that period, namely, the increased number...
Is the Crisis Problem Growing More Severe (2001)
Michael Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel
The crisis problem is one of the dominant macroeconomic features of our age. Its prominence suggests questions like the following: Are crises growing more frequent? Are they becoming more disruptive?...
Capital Account Liberalization: What Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us? (2001)
Capital account liberalization, it is fair to say, remains one of the most controversial and least understood policies of our day. One reason is that different theoretical perspectives have very...
Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence (2000)
Eichengreen, Barry, Arteta, Carlos
The existing empirical literature on banking crises has not produced agreement on their causes. Using a sample of 75 emerging markets in 1975-1997, we attempt to determine what we know about banking...
Would Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs? An Update and Additional Results (2000)
Eichengreen, Barry, Mody, Ashoka
This paper updates earlier findings concerning the impact of collective-action clauses on borrowing costs. It has been argued that only in recent quarters have investors focused on the presence of...
Traducción de: Toward a new international financial architecture
Ilker Domaç, Maria Soledad, Martinez Peria, Carlos Serrano, Data On, Barry Eichengreen, ...
This paper empirically investigates the linkages between banking crises and exchange rate regimes, using a comprehensive data set including developed and developing countries over the last two...
Prepared For The, Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
This paper is a modest contribution to the evidence on this subject. After reviewing proposals for changing the way that capital flows are governed ex post and ex ante, we provide evidence on the...
Do Collective Action Clauses Raise (2000)
Borrowing Costs Barry, Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
this paper are not necessarily those of the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund
“Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies” (2000)
Morris Goldstein, Dennis Weatherstone, Senior Fellow, Mark Allen, Caroline Atkinson, C. Fred Bergsten, ...
Williamson, and Yukio Yoshimura for helpful comments on an earlier draft, and to Trond Augdal for superb research assistance. I also want to thank Stanley Fischer and his colleagues at the IMF for...
Eichengreen, Barry, Ghironi, Fabio
This paper studies the impact of changes in the extent to which fiscal policy is distortionary on the short-run macroeconomic tradeoffs facing fiscal policymakers in an era of budget equilibrium. It...
Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility (1999)
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann
Introduction If one positive thing can be said about the Asian crisis and subsequent discussions of how to strengthen the international financial architecture, it is that they breathed new life into...
Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency? (1998)
The issue of whether Mercosur needs closer macroeconomic policy harmonization, and in particular an exchange-rate stabilization agreement or even a single currency is discussed. Three views are...
International Economic Policy in the Wake of the Asian Crisis (1998)
The Asian crisis was the third financial crisis of the 1990s. Even more than its predecessors it raised questions about the international community's approach to crisis prevention and crisis...
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
This paper is a substantial revision of National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 6408, originally produced for the NBER Conference on Capital Flows to Emerging Markets. We have taken...
Is There a Missing Link? (1998)
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody, Anne Jansen
assemble the data, to Ananda Chanda and Freyan Panthaki for research assistance, and to Adam Posen and two anonymous referees for exceptionally helpful comments. Barry Eichengreen thanks the Research...
European Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation (1997)
Eichengreen, Barry, Ghironi, Fabio
In this paper we describe some of the opportunities and perils for international monetary cooperation associated with EMU. Our approach brings together two strands in the literature; one concerned...
The Baring Crisis in a Mexican Mirror (1997)
Conventional wisdom has it that the Mexican crisis of 1994-95 was "the first financial crisis of the 21st century." In this paper I argue that it may be better understood as the last financial crisis...
JEL Classification Number: F34. (1997)
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew Rose, Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose
We analyze banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than one hundred developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are...
Eichengreen, Barry, Bayoumi, Tamim
This conference is one sign of increased interest in collective or cooperative exchange rate arrangements for East Asian countries. A more concrete indication is the announcement in November 1995 by...
Eichengreen argues that recent developments in financial theory provide rigorous microeconomic foundations for the fragile, volatile and crisis-prone forms of market behavior identified in Charles...
EMU: An Outsider's Perspective (1996)
This talk was presented at the Finlay-O'Brien Lecture, delivered at University College, Dublin, October 7, 1996. One of the themes is that the economics profession knows little about EMU's benefits...
Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries (1996)
Eichengreen, Barry, Bayoumi, Tamim
In this paper we develop a procedure for applying the core implications of the theory of optimum currency areas to cross-country data. We demonstrate that these implications find strong empirical...
On the Links Between Monetary and Political Integration (1996)
The connection between monetary integration and political integration is probably the most contentious aspect of the Maastricht process. In this paper I suggest that relationship between monetary and...
Saving Europe's Automatic Stabilizers (1996)
European policy makers have repeatedly suggested that fiscal-policy coordination and fiscal federalism will play key roles in Europe's monetary union. This paper warns that this hope is misplaced....
FINANCING INFRASTRUCTURE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: LESSONS FROM THE RAILWAY AGE (1995)
In recent years suggestions for reforming the provision and financing of infrastructure services in developing countries have focused on private participation. This alternative to public financing is...
THE INTERWAR DEBT CRISIS AND ITS AFTERMATH (1990)
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
This article analyzes the sovereign defaults of the 1930s and reports nine major findings. (1) There is little evidence that financial markets of the 1930s were unsophisticated or that banks have a...
Settling Defaults in the Era of Bond Finance (1989)
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
Comparisons of the debt crises of the 1930s and 1980s emphasize the greater incidence of default and the greater ease of restructuring half a century ago. The difficulty developing-country debtors...
DID INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORCES CAUSE THE GREAT DEPRESSION? (1988)
Tih spaper reviews and assesses international explanations for the depth and duration of the Great Depression. Many of the conclusions are negative. The U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 came too...
Juvenile Unemployment in 20th Century Britain: The Emergence of a Problem (1987)
During the 1980's youth unemployment rates have persistently exceeded unemployment rates for adults, in Britain as in other OECD countries. In the interwar period, youth unemployment rates in Britain...
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K, Wyplosz, Charles
This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange...
Is There a Safe Passage to EMU? Evidence on Capital Controls and a Proposal
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K, Wyplosz, Charles
This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behaviour, especially in monetary policy....
Is China's FDI Coming at the Expense of Other Countries?
We analyze how China's emergence as a destination for foreign direct investment is affecting the ability of other countries to attract FDI. We do so using an approach that accounts for the...
Sterling's Past, Dollar's Future: Historical Perspectives on Reserve Currency Competition
This paper provides an historical perspective on reserve currency competition and on the prospects of the dollar as an international currency. It questions the conventional wisdom that competition...
The Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes
The international monetary system has passed through a succession of phases characterized alternatively by the dominance of fixed and flexible exchange rates. How are these repeated shifts between...
Dealing with debt : the 1930's and the 1980's
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
The debt crisis of the 1930's illustrated the difficulty of global plans for resolving the debt crisis and underscored the importance of market-based debt-reduction schemes. The crisis of the 1980's...
Would collective action clauses raise borrowing costs? - an update and additional results
Eichengreen, Barry, Mody, Ashoka
It is easy to say that the International Monetary Fund should not resort to financial rescue for countries in crisis; this is hard to do when there is no alternative. That is where collective action...
The international monetary system in the last and next 20 years
Barry Eichengreen, Raul Razo-Garcia
"The last two decades have seen far-reaching changes in the structure of the international monetary system. Europe moved from the European Monetary System to the euro. China adopted a dollar peg and...
Bond Markets as Conduits for Capital Flows: How Does Asia Compare?
Barry Eichengreen, Pipat Luengnaruemitchai
We use data on the extent to which residents of one country hold the bonds of issuers resident in another as a measure of financial integration or interrelatedness, asking how Asia compares with...
Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?
The accumulation of international reserves by emerging markets raises the question of how to best utilize these funds. This paper explores two routes through which the pooling of reserves could...
What to Do with the Chiang Mai Initiative
An important instance of regional cooperation in Asia is the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) for swap lines and credits agreed to by the ASEAN+3 countries in May 2000. This agreement reflects the desire...
The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets
Barry Eichengreen, Kenneth Kletzer, Ashoka Mody
The IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows to emerging markets by providing public monitoring and emergency finance. In analyzing its role we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do...
Sudden Stops and IMF-Supported Programs
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, Ashoka Mody
Could a high-access, quick-disbursing %u201Cinsurance facility%u201D in the IMF help to reduce the incidence of sharp interruptions in capital flows (%u201Csudden stops%u201D)? We contribute to the...
Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending
Over the past century, the world economy has passed through a succession of phases characterized by very different levels of international capital flows. This paper asks what accounts for these...
Costs and Benefits of Monetary Union
This paper analyses the costs and benefits of European monetary unification. The benefits take the form of the reduction in exchange risk, equalization of interest rates, decline in relative price...
Relaxing the External Constraint: Europe in the 1930s
This paper documents the effects of exchange rates and the external constraint during the interwar years. In the absence of international policy coordination, exchange rate depreciation is shown to...
Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?
An optimum currency area is an economic unit composed of regions affected symmetrically by disturbances and between which labour and other factors of production flow freely. The symmetrical nature of...
The Political Economy of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff
Economic histories of the interwar years view the Great Depression and the Smoot Hawley Tariff as inextricably bound up with one another. They assign a central role to the Depression in explaining...
The Anatomy of Financial Crises
Barry Eichengreen, Richard Portes
A financial crisis is a disturbance to financial markets. associated typically with falling asset prices and insolvency among debtors and intermediaries, which spreads through the financial system,...
The Economic Consequences of the Franc Poincare
Barry Eichengreen, Charles Wyplosz
In this paper we reassess the cyclical performance of the French economy in the 1920s, focusing in particular on the period 1926-1931 and on France's resistance to the Great Depression. France...
Til Debt Do Us Part: The U.S. Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920-1955
This paper analyzes U.S. experience with foreign lending in the half-century from 1920. A first question raised by this experience is what ignited the process of U.S. foreign lending. I conclude that...
Trade Deficits in the Long Run
This paper provides an historical perspective on the recent behavior of the U.S. trade deficit. Judged by U.S. historical experience, the trade deficit has reached what is now unprecedented levels....
Savings Promotion, Investment Promotion, and International Competitive- ness
Lawrence H. Goulder, Barry Eichengreen
In an open economy, savings- and investment-promoting policies may have very different effects on the capital account and on the viability of export-oriented and import-competing industries. The...
Dealing With Debt: The 1930s and the 1980s
Barry Eichengreen, Richard Portes
This paper analyzes the sovereign defaults of the 1930s and their implications for the debt crisis of the 1980s. It reports nine major findings. There is little evidence that financial markets have...
International Monetary Instability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?
This paper reaueses the history of the international monetary system between the wars. It confirms the generality of several widely held interpretationsl of recent experience with floating exchange...
Tamim Bayoumi, Barry Eichengreen
We use time-series methods to estimate a simple aggregate-supply aggregate-demand model in order to analyze the comparative performance of fixed- and flexible-exchange-rate systems and test competing...
Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-Industry Effects
Lawrence H. Goulder, Barry Eichengreen
This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the effects of unilateral reductions by the U.S. in tariffs and "voluntary" export restraints (VER's). We consider 50...
Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability
Historical evidence reveals no monocausal explanation for banking crises, including one which would emphasize the maintenance of a currency peg. To some extent this follows from the standard textbook...
Reforming Budgetary Institutions in Latin America: The Case for a National Fiscal Council
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, Jürgen Von Hagen
Latin America's economies have made tremendous improvements in recent years. Following the lost decade of the 1980s, economic growth has resumed. But the fruits of this progress remain to be...
Transatlantic Trade-Offs in the Age of Balanced Budgets and European Monetary Union
Barry Eichengreen, Fabio Ghironi
We develop a model of monetary and fiscal policies appropriate for considering U.S.-European policy interactions in an era of near-balanced budgets and European monetary union. We study the...
Trends and Cycles in Foreign Lending
Over the past century, the world economy has passed through a succession of phases characterized by very different levels of internstionsl capital flows. This paper asks whar accounrs for these...
The Great Depression as a credit boom gone wrong
Barry Eichengreen, Kris Mitchener
The experience of the 1990s renewed economists' interest in the role of credit in macroeconomic fluctuations. The locus classicus of the credit-boom view of economic cycles is the expansion of the...
Barry Eichengreen, David Leblang
The relationship between democracy and globalisation has been the focus of substantial policy and academic debate. Some argue that democracy and globalisation go hand in hand suggesting that...
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz
This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange...
International Policy Coordination in Historical Perspective: A View from the Interwar Years
This paper examines the international financial relations of the interwar period to see what light this experience sheds on current concerns over international policy coordination. The analysis...
From Survey to Sample: Labor Market Data for Interwar London
Eichengreen, Barry, Freiwald, Susan
Economists engaged in theoretical and empirical work are divided over the extent to which labour market outcomes should be characterized as equilibrium or disequilibrium phenomena. To a remarkable...
Debt and Default in the 1930s: Causes and Consequences
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
This paper analyzes the 'debt crisis' of the 1930s to see what light this historical experience sheds on recent difficulties in international capital markets. We first consider patterns of overseas...
Unemployment in Interwar Britain: New Evidence from London
This paper reassesses the pattern of unemployment in interwar Britain from a microeconomic perspective. A 10 per cent sample of some 27,000 case record cards completed in 1929-31 as part of the New...
The Anatomy of Financial Crises
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
A financial crisis is a disturbance to financial markets, associated typically with falling asset prices and insolvency among debtors and intermediaries, which spreads through the financial system,...
The Economic Consequences of the Franc Poincare
Eichengreen, Barry, Wyplosz, Charles
Following the fiscal stabilisation of 1926 and the accompanying return of the French franc to the Gold Standard, France enjoyed several years of fast growth and remained immune to the effects of the...
Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System
Specialists in international relations have argued that international regimes operate smoothly and exhibit stability only when dominated by a single, exceptionally powerful national economy. In...
Juvenile Unemployment in Interwar Britain: The Emergence of a Problem
During the 1980s youth unemployment rates have persistently exceeded unemployment rates for adults, in Britain as in other OECD countries. In the interwar period, youth unemployment rates in Britain...
Unemployment in Interwar Britain: Dole or Doldrums?
Several controversial recent studies seek to explain Britain's high interwar unemployment rate as a consequence of the generosity of her unemployment insurance system. All of these studies are based...
Till Debt Do Us Part: The US Capital Market and Foreign Lending, 1920-1955
This paper analyzes United States experience with foreign lending in the half-century from 1920. A first question raised by this experience is what triggered the process of United States foreign...
Resolving Debt Crises: An Historical Perspective
Two general approaches have been offered for dealing with the developing country debt crisis: the first proposes continued reliance on case-by-case negotiation, while the second involves global plans...
Settling Defaults in the Era of Bond Finance
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
We scrutinize two strands of received wisdom about debt crises: that which draws a strong contrast between the 1930s and 1980s in extent of default and ease of settlement, and that which attributes...
Foreign Lending in the Interwar Years: The Bondholders' Perspective
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
This paper revises and extends our previous (1986) analysis of rates of return on sterling and dollar foreign loans of the 1920s. It analyzes a larger sample of 250 dollar bonds and 125 sterling...
Dealing with Debt: The 1930s and the 1980s
Eichengreen, Barry, Portes, Richard
This paper summarizes and extends the conclusions of a series of papers on the interwar experience of sovereign borrowing, default and debt readjustment. In explaining the incidence and extent of...
The Gold Standard Since Alec Ford
This paper surveys studies of the classical Gold Standard published subsequent to Alec Ford's The Gold Standard 1880-1914: Britain and Argentina in 1962. Contributions tend either to emphasize stock...
International Monetary Stability Between the Wars: Structural Flaws or Misguided Policies?
This paper examines the international monetary system between the Wars. It confirms the generality of several widely held interpretations of recent experience with floating exchange rates. There is a...
The Comparative Performance of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: Interwar Evidence
This paper examines three interwar exchange rate regimes: the free float of the early 1920s, the fixed rates of 1927-31 and the managed float of the early 1930s. Nominal rates were considerably more...
The Capital Levy in Theory and Practice
This paper shows how in theory, if the contingencies in response to which it is imposed are fully anticipated, independently verifiable and not under government control, then saving and investment...
The Interwar Economy in a European Mirror
This paper surveys the economic history of Britain during the interwar years. It contrasts developments in Britain with developments elsewhere in Europe and asks in what respects was British...
Important questions concerning the structure and operation of a European Central Bank remain unanswered. Although there exists no precedent for the process of institution-building in which the...
Halting Inflation in Italy and France After World War II
Casella, Alessandra, Eichengreen, Barry
In the aftermath of World War II, Italy and France experienced high inflation. The two countries enacted remarkably similar economic policy measures, but stabilization came at different times: for...
The Marshall Plan: Economic Effects and Implications for Eastern Europe and the Former USSR
Eichengreen, Barry, Uzan, Marc
This paper is a first attempt to evaluate the economic effects of the Marshall Plan. We find that US aid had a significant impact on Europe's recovery from World War II. The recipients of large...
The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program
DeLong, J Bradford, Eichengreen, Barry
The post-World War II reconstruction of Western Europe was one of the greatest economic and foreign policy successes of this century. `Folk wisdom' assigns much of the credit to the Marshall Plan,...
Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
Recent proposals for enlarging the European Community to include the EFTA countries raise the question of whether the new members should participate in a European Monetary Union. In part, the issue...
Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
Data on output and prices for eleven EC member nations are analysed using a VAR decomposition to extract information on underlying aggregate supply and demand disturbances. The coherence of the...
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
We use time-series methods to estimate a simple aggregate supply and demand model in order to analyse the comparative performance of fixed and flexible exchange rate systems and test competing...
A Payments Mechanism for the Former Soviet Union: Is the EPU a Relevant Precedent?
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the trade of its successor states has spiralled downward. The European Payments Union of the 1950s is frequently invoked as a model for solving this problem....
The Endogeneity of Exchange Rate Regimes
The international monetary system has passed through a succession of phases characterized alternatively by the dominance of fixed and flexible exchange rates. How are these repeated shifts between...
Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs and the Disintegration of World Trade in the 1930s
Eichengreen, Barry, Irwin, Douglas
The dramatic implosion and regionalization of international trade during the 1930s has often been blamed on the trade and foreign exchange policies that emerged in the interwar period. We provide new...
Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?
Casella, Alessandra, Eichengreen, Barry
This paper studies the effect of foreign aid on economic stabilization. Following Alesina and Drazen (1991), we model the delay in stabilizing as the result of a distributional struggle: reforms are...
Institutions and Economic Growth: Europe After World War II
European economic growth in the quarter of a century that ended in 1973 outstripped growth in any period of comparable length before or since. The elements of Europe's growth miracle -- wage...
Restraining Yourself: Fiscal Rules and Stabilization
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
State budgets in the United States played a significant macroeconomic role in the 1970s and 1980s, and the level of cyclical responsiveness was affected by the severity of statutory and...
The Geography of the Gold Standard
Eichengreen, Barry, Flandreau, Marc
In this paper we chart the geography of the gold standard. We highlight the late date of the move to gold and the variety of transition strategies. Whether a country with a currency convertible into...
European Monetary Unification: The Challenges Ahead
Eichengreen, Barry, Ghironi, Fabio
This paper reviews the problems that must be resolved at the Intergovernmental Conference in 1996 to clear the way for European Monetary Union: locking in Germany's commitment to the project, and...
Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Federalism, Fiscal Restrictions and the No-Bailout Rule
Eichengreen, Barry, Von Hagen, Jürgen
Avocates of formal fiscal restraints on the member states of the European Monetary Union often argue that US experience proves that a monetary union needs such constraints to guarantee the stability...
The Stability of the Gold Standard and the Evolution of the International Monetary System
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
This paper examines some popular explanations for the smooth operation of the pre-1914 gold standard. We find that the rapid adjustment of economies to underlying disturbances played an important...
Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
This paper considers the impact on trade of preferential arrangements in Europe since the 1950s. Using a first difference version of the gravity model, we find that the EEC and EFTA altered the...
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K, Wyplosz, Charles
This paper is concerned with the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tend to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass ‘contagiously’ from one country to...
Operationalizing the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
Recent years have seen a wave of empirical studies attempting to give empirical content to the theory of optimum currency areas as a way of marshalling evidence on the costs and benefits of EMU. This...
How Will Transatlantic Policy Interactions Change with the Advent of EMU?
Eichengreen, Barry, Ghironi, Fabio
This paper analyses US–European policy interactions under different assumptions about the policy-making regime and the nature of the fiscal environment, contrasting the standard Keynesian case with...
Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System
Bordo, Michael D, Eichengreen, Barry
In this paper we speculate about the evolution of the international monetary system in the last two-thirds of the twentieth century absent the Great Depression, but present the major post-Depression...
Winning the War, Losing the Peace? Britain's Post-War Recovery in a West German Mirror
Eichengreen, Barry, Ritschl, Albrecht
This paper places Anglo-German growth after World War II in a long-term comparative perspective. Reviewing explanations of why post-war Germany is more dynamic than Britain, we evaluate arguments...
Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew K
We analyse banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than 100 developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are strongly...
Currency Crisis and Unemployment: Sterling in 1931
Eichengreen, Barry, Jeanne, Olivier
This paper studies the role of unemployment in sterling’s inter-war experience. According to most narrative accounts, the proximate cause of the 1931 sterling crisis was a high and rising...
The External Sector, the State and Development in Eastern Europe
Eichengreen, Barry, Kohl, Richard
The countries of Central and Eastern Europe have displayed widely disparate trade performance since the beginning of the transition. The Czech Republic and Hungary have had some success moving into...
Exchange Rate Volatility and Intervention: Implications of the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
We show that the variables pointed to by the theory of optimum currency areas (OCAs) help to explain patterns of exchange rate variability and intervention across countries. But OCA considerations...
Would Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?
Eichengreen, Barry, Mody, Ashoka
We examine the implications for borrowing costs of including collective-action clauses in loan contracts. For a sample of some 2,000 international bonds, we compare the spreads on bonds subject to UK...
On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry, Mauro, Paolo
This paper analyses the extent to which ASEAN may be suitable for a regional monetary arrangement. On the economic front, we review evidence on patterns of trade, economic shocks, the extent of...
The Bail-In Problem: Systematic Goals, Ad Hoc Means
Eichengreen, Barry, Ruehl, Christoph
In this paper we analyse the recent efforts of the international financial institutions to limit the moral hazard created by their assistance to crisis countries. We question the wisdom of the...
This Paper reconsiders the 1992/3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that...
Greek Banking at the Dawn of the New Millennium
Eichengreen, Barry, Gibson, Heather D
?In this Paper we analyse the current state, past performance, and future prospects of the Greek banking system. Greek banking is in a period of rapid transformation, reflecting the impact of...
When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More Than it Hurts?
Arteta, Carlos, Eichengreen, Barry, Wyplosz, Charles
In this Paper we reconsider the evidence on capital account liberalization and growth. While we find indications of a positive association, the effects vary with time, with how capital account...
Is Aggregation a Problem for Sovereign Debt Restructuring?
Eichengreen, Barry, Mody, Ashoka
Reform of the mechanisms and procedures through which problems of sovereign debt sustainability are resolved is at the centre of the effort to make the international financial system less crisis...
The Monetary Consequences of A Free Trade Area of the Americas
Eichengreen, Barry, Taylor, Alan M
How will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can...
Debt Instruments and Policies in the New Millennium: New Markets and New Opportunities
Eduardo Borensztein, Barry Eichengreen, Ugo Panizza
Spreads on sovereign bonds are at an all-time low, at least since the current era of emerging economy bond markets began in the 1990s. This paper examines the current state of the international and...
The IMF in a world of private capital markets
Barry Eichengreen, Kenneth Kletzer, Ashoka Mody
The IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows to emerging markets by providing public monitoring and emergency finance. In analyzing its role we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do...
Financing infrastructure in developing countries : lessons from the Railway Age
Arguments for financing infrastructure development through government subsidies and foreign borrowing meet with increasing skepticism. Numerous"white elephants"subsidized by governments have...
Eichengreen, Barry, Mody, Ashoka
Academics pay little attention to international bank lending, focusing instead on rapidly growing market segments such as the international bond market and derivative credit instruments. The authors...
Kicking the Habit: Moving from Pegged Rates to Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility.
Why do governments find it so difficult to move from pegged exchange rates to greater exchange rate flexibility? The author first establishes that there is a problem to be solved: that there are...
Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilisation?
Casella, Alessandra, Eichengreen, Barry
This paper studies the effect of foreign aid on economic stabilization. Following Alberto Alesina and Allan Drazen (1991), the authors model the delay in stabilizing as the result of a distributional...
Bayoumi, Tamim, Eichengreen, Barry
The authors analyze the comparative macroeconomic performance of the Bretton Woods System of pegged exchange rates and the post-Bretton Woods float. The change in volatility of prices and output...
Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods
An influential school of thought views the current international monetary and financial system as Bretton Woods reborn. Today, like 40 years ago, the international monetary system is composed of a...
Conducting the international orchestra: Bank of England leadership under the classical gold standard
Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests.
Eichengreen, Barry, Rose, Andrew, Wyplosz, Charles
The authors address the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tends to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass 'contagiously' from one country to another. The paper...
Interest Rates in the North and Capital Flows to the South: Is There a Missing Link?
Eichengreen, Barry, Mody, Ashoka
Qualitative accounts have long emphasized the level of interest rates in the advanced industrial countries as a determinant of capital flows to emerging markets and spreads on external debt....
The Regulator's Dilemma: Hedge Funds in the International Financial Architecture.
This paper considers the role of hedge funds in international financial markets, with a focus on market manipulation, the issue of concern to smaller countries, and systemic stability, the issue of...
Blocs, Zones and Bands: International Monetary History in Light of Recent Theoretical Developments.
Eichengreen, Barry, Flandreau, Marc
Trends in international finance in recent decades have inspired considerable research on bloc- and band-based international monetary arrangements. From this literature has emerged models providing...
Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?
The crises of the 1990s convinced many observers that intermediate exchange rate arrangements are fragile and crisis prone. But advising emerging markets to abandon the exchange rate as an anchor for...
Money, Finance and Demography: The Consequences of Ageing
Ignazio Visco, Barry Eichengreen, Gilles Mourre, Declan Costello, Giuseppe Carone, Nuria Diez Guardia, ...
China, Asia, and the World Economy: The Implications of an Emerging Asian Core and Periphery
A growing body of evidence suggests that China's emergence is having differential effects on Asia's advanced and developing countries. The region's advanced countries are benefiting from the...
Insurance Underwriter or Financial Development Fund: What Role for Reserve Pooling in Latin America?
The accumulation of international reserves by emerging markets raises the question of how to best utilize these funds. This paper explores two routes through which the pooling of reserves could...
The impact of late nineteenth-century unions on labor earnings and hours: Iowa in 1894.
This paper presents an analysis of data on male workers taken from an 1894 survey of the Iowa labor market. Consistent with the results of earlier research by Paul Douglas, the author finds evidence...
The impact of late nineteenth-century unions on labor earnings and hours: Iowa in 1894.
This paper presents an analysis of data on male workers taken from an 1894 survey of the Iowa labor market. Consistent with the results of earlier research by Paul Douglas, the author finds evidence...
Chinese Currency Controversies
This Paper reviews the controversy over China’s exchange rate regime. Placing the issue in the context of the literature on exit strategies, it argues that now is the best time for China to exit...
Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Korea: Assessments and Policy Issues
This Paper considers monetary and exchange rate policy in Korea since the financial crisis of 1997-98. The Bank of Korea has adopted much of the apparatus of inflation targeting, with a band for...
Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects.
Lawrence H. Goulder, Barry Eichengreen
A computable general equilibrium model is used to examine effects of removing U.S. tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade. The model differs from traditional disaggregated trade models in its...
The thesis of this paper is that there is no historical precedent for Europe’s monetary union (EMU). While it is possible to point to similar historical experiences, the most obvious of which were...
Exchange Rates and Cohesion: Historical Perspectives and Political-Economy Considerations
BARRY EICHENGREEN, DAVID LEBLANG
We consider the political economy of exchange rate choice and its implications for economic growth from an historical perspective. Previous studies have tended to find only a weak association between...
Productivity Growth, the New Economy, and Catching Up
The paper offers some reflections on the convergence of productivity in the United States and Europe, which essentially stopped in the 1990s. It argues that the barriers preventing further...
Peter Isard's recent book (Globalization and the International Financial System: What's Wrong and What Can be Done?, Cambridge University Press, 2005) provides a thoughtful and balanced review of the...
This paper provides new empirical evidence relevant to the debate over the desirability of reforms to the way that financial markets and the international community deal with sovereign debt crises....
Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence
Barry Eichengreen, Carlos Arteta
The existing empirical literature on banking crises has not produced agreement on their causes. Using a sample of 75 emerging markets in 1975-1997, we attempt to determine what we know about banking...
Would Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs? An Update and Additional Results
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
This paper updates earlier findings concerning the impact of collective-action clauses on borrowing costs. It has been argued that only in recent quarters have investors focused on the presence of...
Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?
The issue of whether Mercosur needs closer macroeconomic policy harmonization, and in particular an exchange-rate stabilization agreement or even a single currency is discussed. Three views are...
International Economic Policy in the Wake of the Asian Crisis
The Asian crisis was the third financial crisis of the 1990s. Even more than its predecessors it raised questions about the international community's approach to crisis prevention and crisis...
European Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation
Barry Eichengreen, Fabio Ghironi
In this paper we describe some of the opportunities and perils for international monetary cooperation associated with EMU. Our approach brings together two strands in the literature; one concerned...
The Baring Crisis in a Mexican Mirror
Conventional wisdom has it that the Mexican crisis of 1994-95 was "the first financial crisis of the 21st century." In this paper I argue that it may be better understood as the last financial crisis...
Barry Eichengreen, Tamim Bayoumi
This conference is one sign of increased interest in collective or cooperative exchange rate arrangements for East Asian countries. A more concrete indication is the announcement in November 1995 by...
Eichengreen argues that recent developments in financial theory provide rigorous microeconomic foundations for the fragile, volatile and crisis-prone forms of market behavior identified in Charles...
EMU: An Outsider's Perspective
This talk was presented at the Finlay-O'Brien Lecture, delivered at University College, Dublin, October 7, 1996. One of the themes is that the economics profession knows little about EMU's benefits...
Ever Closer to Heaven? An Optimum-Currency-Area Index for European Countries
Barry Eichengreen, Tamim Bayoumi
In this paper we develop a procedure for applying the core implications of the theory of optimum currency areas to cross-country data. We demonstrate that these implications find strong empirical...
On the Links Between Monetary and Political Integration
The connection between monetary integration and political integration is probably the most contentious aspect of the Maastricht process. In this paper I suggest that relationship between monetary and...
Saving Europe's Automatic Stabilizers
European policy makers have repeatedly suggested that fiscal-policy coordination and fiscal federalism will play key roles in Europe's monetary union. This paper warns that this hope is misplaced....
European Monetary Unification and International Monetary Cooperation
Barry Eichengreen, Fabio Ghironi
In this paper we describe some of the opportunities and perils for international monetary cooperation associated with EMU. Our approach brings together two strands in the literature; one concerned...
The Baring Crisis in a Mexican Mirror
Conventional wisdom has it that the Mexican crisis of 1994-95 was "the first financial crisis of the 21st century." In this paper I argue that it may be better understood as the last financial crisis...
International Economic Policy in the Wake of the Asian Crisis
The Asian crisis was the third financial crisis of the 1990s. Even more than its predecessors it raised questions about the international community’s approach to crisis prevention and crisis...
Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?
The issue of whether Mercosur needs closer macroeconomic policy harmonization, and in particular an exchange-rate stabilization agreement or even a single currency is discussed. Three views are...
Would Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs? An Update and Additional Results
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
This paper updates earlier findings concerning the impact of collective-action clauses on borrowing costs. It has been argued that only in recent quarters have investors focused on the presence of...
Saving Europe's Automatic Stabilizers
European policy makers have repeatedly suggested that fiscal- policy coordination and fiscal federalism will play key roles in Europe's monetary union. This paper warns that this hope is misplaced....
Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence
Barry Eichengreen, Carlos Arteta
The existing empirical literature on banking crises has not produced agreement on their causes. Using a sample of 75 emerging markets in 1975-1997, we attempt to determine what we know about banking...
Do Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
We compare launch spreads on emerging-market bonds subject to UK governing law, which typically include collective action clauses, with spreads on bonds subject to US law, which do not....
Is our Current International Economic Environment Unusually Crisis Prone?
Michael Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, David Gruen, Luke Gower
currency crisis; banking crisis; twin crisis; comparison of performance of crisis economies
Stock Market Volatility and Monetary Policy: What the Historical Record Shows
Barry Eichengreen, Hui Tong, Anthony Richards, Tim Robinson
equity prices; monetary policy; stock market volatility
Capital account liberalization and growth: was Mr. Mahathir right?
Barry Eichengreen, David Leblang
Much ink has been spilled over the connections between capital account liberalization and growth. One reason that previous studies have been inconclusive, we show, is their failure to account for the...
Barry Eichengreen, Kenneth Kletzer, Ashoka Mody
At the April 2003 meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committees, it was decided to further encourage the contractual approach to smoothing the process of sovereign debt restructuring...
Global imbalances and the lessons of Bretton Woods
Bretton Woods Agreements Act ; Economic development - Pacific Basin
Managing financial crises in emerging markets
Barry Eichengreen, Richard Portes
International Monetary Fund ; International finance
Exchange rates and financial fragility
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann
Foreign exchange rates ; Financial markets
Greenspan, Alan ; Interest rates ; Deficit financing
Barry Eichengreen, Fabio Ghironi
We speculate about how Europe's monetary union will evolve in the next five to ten years. We concentrate on what is likely to be the most important change in that period, namely, the increased number...
Barry Eichengreen, Fabio Ghironi
This paper studies the impact of changes in the extent to which fiscal policy is distortionary on the short-run macroeconomic tradeoffs facing fiscal policymakers in an era of budget equilibrium. It...
Unemployment and Underemployment in Historical Perspective: Introduction
Eichengreen, unemployment, underemployment,
The Impact of Unions in the 1890's: The Case of the New Hampshire Shoe Industry
Steven Maddox, Barry Eichengreen
Maddox, Eichengreen, New Hampshire, shoe industry, unions ,
Interwar Unemployment in International Perspective
Eichengreen, Hatton, unemployment, international perspective,
Juvenile Unemployment in 20th Century Britain: The Emergence of a Problem
During the 1980's youth unemployment rates have persistently exceeded unemployment rates for adults, in Britain as in other OECD countries. In the interwar period, youth unemployment rates in Britain...
Barry Eichengreen, Kenneth Kletzer, Ashoka Mody
At the spring 2003 meetings of the IMF and World Bank it was decided to push ahead with the contractual approach to smoothing the process of sovereign debt restructuring by encouraging the more...
Implicit in the debate over dollarization are two very different views of sequencing of policy measures. One view is that dollarization, to work smoothly and yield more benefits than costs, must wait...
Financing Infrastructure in Developing Countries: Lessons from the Railway Age.
This paper considers the role of infrastructure investment in the economic development of the regions of overseas European settlement in the 19th century. Its premise is that the pattern of...
Unemployment and the Structure of Labor Markets: The Long View.
Understanding the causes of high unemployment requires first understanding the structure of labor markets. This is an historical agenda, since it is only over time that there is significant variation...
Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency?
This is the keynote address for the IPEA conference "ALCA and MERCOSUL: The Brazilian Economy and the Processes of Subregional and Hemispheric Integration." It discusses the issue of whether Mercosur...
International Economic Policy in the Wake of the Asian Crisis.
This paper discusses the policy challenges posed by the Asian crisis. It starts in Section 1 by reconsidering the controversy over capital mobility. Even before the crisis struck, the IMF was on...
Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability.
In this paper I consider the connections between the exchange rate and the financial system, focusing on the implications of international monetary arrangements for the stability of the banking...
This paper assesses the legacy of the Marshall Plan on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of General George Marshall's historic commencement address at Harvard University. I suggest that the...
The Next Tsunami? Preparing for a Disorderly Correction of Global Imbalances
This paper makes the case that Asian countries should start preparing now for a disorderly correction of global imbalances. It points to six measures they should take: allowing their currencies to...
Institutions and Economic Performance: Evidence from the Labour Market.
Eichengreen, Barry, Iversen, Torben
We analyse the institutional determinants of economic performance, taking European labour-market institutions as a case in point. European economic growth after the Second World War was based on...
European Monetary Unification: A Tour d'Horizon.
This article takes stock of the literature and debate over European monetary unification. In contrast to other papers, where it is argued that the issues and prospects remain shrouded in uncertainty,...
Unemployment in Interwar Britain: Dole or Doldrums?
Several controversial recent studies seek to explain interwar Britain's high unemployment rate in terms of the generosity of her unemployment-insurance system. All of these studies are macroeconomic...
China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries
Barry Eichengreen, Yeongseop Rhee, Hui Tong
China, Asian Countries, exports, gravity model,
The Economic Impact of European Integration
Boltho, Andrea, Eichengreen, Barry
Economic integration, from the European Payments Union and the European Coal and Steel Community to the Common Market, the European Monetary System, the Single Market, and the euro, is one of the...
Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?
Alexander Swoboda is one of the originators of the bipolar view that capital mobility creates pressure for countries to abandon intermediate exchange rate arrangements in favor of greater flexibility...
Eichengreen, Barry, Flandreau, Marc
We present new evidence on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves in the 1920s and 1930s. Contrary to the presumption that the pound sterling continued to dominate the U.S. dollar in...
Exchange Rate Regimes and Capital Mobility: How Much of the Swoboda Thesis Survives?
Alexander Swoboda is one of the originators of the bipolar view that capital mobility creates pressure for countries to abandon intermediate exchange rate arrangements in favor of greater flexibility...
Global Imbalances and the Asian Economies: Implications for Regional Cooperation
This paper asks how Asia should prepare for the disorderly correction of global imbalances. It recommends tightening monetary policy and allowing Asian currencies to appreciate as a way of achieving...
Why Dones't Asia have the biger bond markets
Barry Eichengreen, Pipat Luengnaruemitchai
Asia¡¦s underdeveloped bond markets and dependence on bank finance have been topics of concern since the crisis of 1997-98. In this paper we document that the slow development of Asian bond markets...
Introduction to The European Economy since 1945: Coordinated Capitalism and Beyond
In 1945, many Europeans still heated with coal, cooled their food with ice, and lacked indoor plumbing. Today, things could hardly be more different. Over the second half of the twentieth century,...
Barry Eichengreen, Marc Flandreau
We present new evidence on the currency composition of foreign exchange reserves in the 1920s and 1930s. Contrary to the presumption that the pound sterling continued to dominate the U.S. dollar in...
The Gold-Exchange Standard and the Great Depression
A number of explanations for the severity of the Great Depression focus on the malfunctioning of the international monetary system. One such explanation emphasizes the deflationary monetary...
International Competition in the Products of U.S. Basic Industries
This paper provides an overview of recent trends in the U.S. basic industries. It first documents the dramatic fall in their shares of domestic employment and global production. It then considers...
The Comparative Performance of Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes : Interwar Evidence
This paper reports evidence on the characteristics of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. It contrasts experience under three interwar exchange rate regimes: the free float of the early 1920s,...
Hegemonic Stability Theories of the International Monetary System
Specialists in international relations have argued that international regimes operate smoothly and exhibit stability only when dominated by a single, exceptionally powerful national economy. In...
Before the Accord: U.S. Monetary-Financial Policy 1945-51
Barry Eichengreen, Peter Garber
Thia paper analyzes U.S. monetary-financial policy in the period leading up to the Treasury-Fed Accord. We model policy as an implicit target zone for the price level and an explicit zone for...
The Impact of Permanent and Temporary Import Surcharges on the U.S. Trade Deficit
Barry Eichengreen, Lawrence H. Goulder
This paper uses analytical and simulation models to study the impact of temporary and permanent import surcharges on the U.S. balance of trade. The analytical model of a two-country, two-commodity,...
Relaxing the External Constraint: Europe in the 1930s
This paper documents the effects of exchange rates and the external constraint during the interwar years. In the absence of international policy coordination, exchange rate depreciation is shown to...
Resolving Debt Crises: An Historical Perspective
Two general approaches have been offered for dealing with the developing country debt crisis: continued reliance on case-by-case negotiation, versus global plans for fundamentally restructuring the...
Is Europe an Optimum Currency Area?
An optimum currency area is an economic unit composed of regions affected symmetrically by disturbances and between which labor and other factors of production flow freely. The symmetrical nature of...
Important questions concerning the structure and operation of a European central bank remain to be answered. Although there exists no precedent for the process of institution-building in which the...
Halting Inflation in Italy and France After World War II
Alessandra Casella, Barry Eichengreen
In the aftermath of World War II, Italy and France experienced high inflation. The two countries enacted remarkably similar economic policy measures, but stabilization came at different times: for...
The Capital Levy in Theory and Practice
A capital levy is a one-time tax on all wealth holders with the goal of retiring public debt. This paper reconsiders the historical debate over the capital levy in a contingent capital taxation...
The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Program
The post-World War II reconstruction of Western Europe was one of the greatest economic policy and foreign policy successes of this century. "Folk wisdom" assigns a major role in successful...
Shocking Aspects of European Monetary Unification
Tamim Bayoumi, Barry Eichengreen
Data on output and prices for 11 EC member nations are analyzed to extract information on underlying aggregate supply and demand disturbances using a VAR decomposition. The coherence of the...
Is There a Conflict Between EC Enlargement and European Monetary Unification?
Tamim Bayoumi, Barry Eichengreen
Recent proposals for enlarging the European Community to include the EFTA countries raise the question of whether the new members should participate in a European Monetary Union. In part, the issue...
Three Perspectives on the Bretton Woods System
The twenty years that have passed since the collapse of the Bretton Woods System provide sufficient distance to safely assess the operation of the post-World War II international monetary system....
Trade Blocs, Currency Blocs and the Disintegration of World Trade in the 1930s
Barry Eichengreen, Douglas A. Irwin
The dramatic implosion and regionalization of international trade during the 1930s has often been blamed on the trade and foreign exchange policies that emerged in the interwar period. We provide new...
Can Foreign Aid Accelerate Stabilization?
Alessandra Casella, Barry Eichengreen
This paper studies the effect of foreign aid on economic stabilization. Following Alesina and Drazen (1991), we model the delay in stabilizing as the result of a distributional struggle: reforms are...
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz
This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange...
Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence From the Evolution of the EC and EFTA
Tamim Bayoumi, Barry Eichengreen
This paper considers the impact on trade of preferential arrangements in Europe since the 1950s. Using a first difference version of the gravity model, we find that the EC and EFTA altered the...
Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Is There a Tradeoff between Federalism and Budgetary Restrictions?
Barry Eichengreen, Jurgen Von Hagen
The Maastricht Treaty on Europe Union features an Excessive Deficit Procedure limiting the freedom to borrow of governments participating in the European monetary union. One justification is to...
The Role of History in Bilateral Trade Flows
Barry Eichengreen, Douglas A. Irwin
This paper investigates the theory and evidence that history plays a role in shaping the direction of international trade. Because there are reasons to anticipate a positive correlation between the...
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose, Charles Wyplosz
This paper is concerned with the fact that the incidence of speculative attacks tends to be temporally correlated; that is, currency crises appear to pass contagiously from one country to another....
Implications of the Great Depression for the Development of the International Monetary System
Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen
In this paper we speculate about the evolution of the international monetary system in the last 2/3 of the 20th century absent the Great Depression but present the major post-Depression political and...
The Gold Standard and the Great Depression
Barry Eichengreen, Peter Temin
This paper, written primarily for historians, attempts to explain why political leaders and central bankers continued to adhere to the gold standard as the Great Depression intensified. We do not...
Staying Afloat When the Wind Shifts: External Factors and Emerging-Market Banking Crises
Barry Eichengreen, Andrew K. Rose
We analyze banking crises using a panel of macroeconomic and financial data for more than one hundred developing countries from 1975 through 1992. We find that banking crises in emerging markets are...
What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
In this paper we analyze data on nearly 1,000 developing-country bonds issued in the years 1991-96 the recent episode of heavy reliance on bonded debt. We analyze both the issue decision of debtors...
The Rise and Fall of a Barbarous Relic: The Role of Gold in the International Monetary SYstem
Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen
In this paper we analyze the changing role of gold in the international monetary system, in particular the persistence of gold holdings by monetary authorities for 20 years following the breakdown of...
Currency Crisis and Unemployment: Sterling in 1931
Barry Eichengreen, Olivier Jeanne
This paper studies the role of unemployment in sterling's interwar experience. According to most narrative accounts, the proximate cause of the 1931 sterling crisis was a high and rising unemployment...
Was There Really an Earlier Period of International Financial Integration Comparable to Today?
Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, Jongwoo Kim
In this paper we reconsider the international market integration, starting at high levels in the late nineteenth century, collapsing between the wars, and recovering gradually after 1945 to reach...
Does Mercosur Need a Single Currency
The possibility of a single currency for the Mercosur countries was raised by Argentine President Menem in December 1997 and again at the regional summit this past June. This paper argues that...
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
This paper analyzes the determinants of spreads on syndicated bank lending to emerging markets, treating the loan-extension and pricing decisions as jointly determined. Compared to the bond market,...
Is Globalization Today Really Different than Globalization a Hunderd Years Ago?
Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, Douglas A. Irwin
This paper pursues the comparison of economic integration today and pre 1914 for trade as well as finance, primarily for the United States but also with reference to the wider world. We establish the...
Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann
In this paper we analyze three views of the relationship between the exchange rate and financial fragility: (1) the moral hazard hypothesis, according to which pegged exchange rates offer implicit...
Would Collective Action Clauses Raise Borrowing Costs?
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody
We examine the implications for borrowing costs of including collective-action clauses in loan contracts. For a sample of some 2,000 international bonds, we compare the spreads on bonds subject to UK...
From Benign Neglect to Malignant Preoccupation: U.S. Balance-of-Payments Policy in the 1960s
U.S. balance-of-payments problems in the 1960s remain poorly understood. In this paper I argue that they had two aspects. On the one hand there was a problem of real overvaluation, evident in the...
The Bail-In Problem: Systematic Goals, Ad Hoc Means
Barry Eichengreen, Christof Ruehl
In this paper we analyze the recent efforts of the international financial institutions to limit the moral hazard created by their assistance to crisis countries. We question the wisdom of the...
This paper reconsiders the 1992-3 crisis in the European Monetary System in light of its emerging market successors. That episode was a predecessor of the Mexican and Asian crises in the sense that...
J. Bradford DeLong, Barry Eichengreen
We review and analyze the monetary and financial policies of the Clinton administration with a focus on the strong dollar policy, the Mexican rescue, the response to the Asian crisis, and the debate...
When Does Capital Account Liberalization Help More than It Hurts?
Carlos Arteta, Barry Eichengreen, Charles Wyplosz
In this paper we reconsider the evidence on capital account liberalization and growth. While we find indications of a positive association, the effects vary with time, with how capital account...
Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization
Barry Eichengreen, Michael D. Bordo
We consider the operation of international capital markets in two periods of globalization, before 1914 and after 1971, with a focus on the crisis problem. We explore the idea that the incidence of...
Still Fettered After All These Years
The last decade has seen an outpouring of scholarship on the economics of the Great Depression. If there is anything approaching a consensus, it is a synthetic view which admits a role both for...
Capital Account Liberalization and Growth: Was Mr. Mahathir Right?
Barry Eichengreen, David Leblang
Much ink has been spilled over the connections between capital account liberalization and growth. One reason that previous studies have been inconclusive, we show, is their failure to account for the...
The Monetary Consequences of a Free Trade Area of the Americas
Barry Eichengreen, Alan M. Taylor
How will free trade affect monetary policy and exchange rate regime choices in the Americas? While the European Union illustrates how the creation of an integrated market in goods and services can...
Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters
Barry Eichengreen, Ricardo Hausmann, Ugo Panizza
Recent years have seen the development of a large literature on balance sheet factors in emerging-market financial crises. In this paper we discuss three concepts widely used in this literature. Two...
Barry Eichengreen, Kenneth Kletzer
At the April 2003 meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committees, it was decided to further encourage the contractual approach to smoothing the process of sovereign debt restructuring...
Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods
An influential school of thought views the current international monetary and financial system as Bretton Woods reborn. Today, like 40 years ago, the international system is composed of a core, which...
Why Doesn't Asia Have Bigger Bond Markets?
Barry Eichengreen, Pipat Luengnaruemitchai
Asia's underdeveloped bond markets and dependence on bank finance have been topics of concern since the crisis of 1997-8. In this paper we document that the slow development of Asian bond markets is...
The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries
Barry Eichengreen, Yeongseop Rhee, Hui Tong
We analyze the impact of China's growth on the exports of other Asian countries. Our innovation is to distinguish the increase in China's demand for imports from its increased penetration of export...
Barry Eichengreen, Mariko Hatase
We explore the parallels between Japanese currency policy after World War II and Chinese currency policy today. After two decades of pegging at 360 yen, Japan decoupled from the dollar on August 1971...
Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?
Barry Eichengreen, Muge Adalet
Using panel data and case studies, we analyze the pre-1970 history of international capital flows and current account reversals. Considering a sample of emerging markets and advanced economies with...
The connections between globalization and democracy are a classic question in international political economy and a topic much debated in foreign policy circles. While the analytical literature is...
Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why, and with What Effects?
N. Nergiz Dincer, Barry Eichengreen
Greater transparency in central bank operations is the most dramatic change in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years. In this paper we present new information on its extent and effects. We...
The possibility that the euro area might break up was being raised even before the single currency existed. These scenarios were then lent new life five or six years on, when appreciation of the euro...
The thesis of this paper is that there is no historical precedent for Europe's monetary union (EMU). While it is possible to point to similar historical experiences, the most obvious of which were in...
International Economic Policy: Was There a Bush Doctrine?
Barry Eichengreen, Douglas A. Irwin
While many political scientists and diplomatic historians see the Bush presidency as a distinctive epoch in American foreign policy, we argue that there was no Bush Doctrine in foreign economic...
The IMF in a World of Private Capital Markets
The IMF attempts to stabilize private capital flows to emerging markets by providing public monitoring and emergency finance. In analyzing its role we contrast cases where banks and bondholders do...
Should there be a coordinated response to the problem of global imbalances? Can there be one?
This paper analyzes the options for international policy coordination in order to redress the global imbalances. The case for policy coordination rests on a number of assumptions such as the...
Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?
Barry Eichengreen, Katharina Steiner
We ask whether Poland is at risk of the boom-bust problem that has afflicted economies around the time of euro adoption. Our answer, inevitably, is mixed. On the one hand the fact that Poland is an...
BARRY EICHENGREEN, DAVID LEBLANG
The relationship between democracy and globalization has been a subject of both scholarly and policy debate. Some argue that the two go hand in hand - that unrestricted international transactions...
The International Debt Crisis in Historical Perspective
Barry Eichengreen, Peter H. Lindert
This anatomy of financial crises shows that the worldwide debt crisis of the 1980s was not unprecedented and was even forecast by many. Eichengreen and Lindert bring together original studies that...
The implications of capital mobility for growth and stability are some of the most contentious and least understood contemporary issues in economics. In this book, Barry Eichengreen discusses...
Bretton Woods and the Great Inflation
Michael D. Bordo, Barry Eichengreen
In this paper we show that the acceleration of inflation in the United States after 1965 reflected a shift in perceived responsibility for managing the country's international financial position....
Understanding West German Economic Growth in the 1950s
Barry Eichengreen, Albrecht Ritschl
We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent litera- ture has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimiz- ing the...
Is Poland at Risk of a Boom-and-Bust Cycle in the Run-Up to Euro Adoption?
Eichengreen, Barry, Steiner, Katharina
We ask whether Poland is at risk of the boom-bust problem that has afflicted economies around the time of euro adoption. Our answer, inevitably, is mixed. On the one hand the fact that Poland is an...
The paper traces the development of Keynes's views of free trade and protection and their relationship to British economic policy from 1922 to 1946.
Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s
Eichengreen, Barry, Sachs, Jeffrey
Currency depreciation in the 1930s is almost universally dismissed or condemned. This paper advances a different interpretation of these policies. It documents first that depreciation benefited the...
The Earnings of Skilled and Unskilled Immigrants at the End of the Nineteenth Century
Eichengreen, Barry, Gemery, Henry A.
Most historical studies of immigration in nineteenth-century America have failed to distinguish among the labor-market experiences of different immigrant groups. Using a sample of some 4000 wage...
Central Bank Transparency: Causes, Consequences and Updates
Nergiz Dincer, Barry Eichengreen
We present updated estimates of central bank for 100 countries up through 2006 and use them to analyze both the determinants and consequences of monetary policy transparency in an integrated...
DID INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC FORCES CAUSE THE GREAT DEPRESSION?
This paper reviews and assesses international explanations for the depth and duration of the Great Depression. Many of the conclusions are negative. The U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 came too...
Two Waves of Service-Sector Growth
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta
The positive association between the service sector share of output and per capita income is one of the best-known regularities in all of growth and development economics. Yet there is less than...
Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods
In Global Imbalances and the Lessons of Bretton Woods, Barry Eichengreen takes issue with the argument that today's international financial system is largely analogous to the Bretton Woods System of...
Bond Markets in Latin America: On the Verge of a Big Bang?
Eduardo Borensztein, Kevin Cowan, Barry Eichengreen, Ugo Panizza
Developing local bond markets is high on the policy agenda of Latin America. Bond markets are an essential component of a well-functioning financial market. Facilitating the efforts of public and...
The Two Waves of Service-Sector Growth
This paper will hopefully provide an important methodological tool for all researchers who may be attempting to analyze and explain the growth of the service sector and its share in the Indian GDP...
The Two Waves of Service Sector Growth
Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta
The positive association between the service sector share of output and per capita income is one of the best-known regularities in all of growth and development economics. Yet there is less than...
How the Subprime Crisis Went Global: Evidence from Bank Credit Default Swap Spreads
Barry Eichengreen, Ashoka Mody, Milan Nedeljkovic, Lucio Sarno
How did the Subprime Crisis, a problem in a small corner of U.S. financial markets, affect the entire global banking system? To shed light on this question we use principal components analysis to...
Capital account liberalization, financial development and industry growth: a synthetic view
Eichengreen, Barry, Gullapalli, Rachita, Panizza, Ugo
This paper synthesizes previous studies analyzing the effects of capital account liberalization on industry growth while controlling for financial crises, domestic financial development and the...
The Slide to Protectionism in the Great Depression: Who Succumbed and Why?
Barry Eichengreen, Douglas A. Irwin
The Great Depression was marked by protectionist trade policies and the breakdown of the multilateral trading system. But contrary to the presumption that all countries scrambled to raise trade...
Origins and Responses to the Current Crisis
Finanzmarktkrise, Internationaler Finanzmarkt, Kapitalmarktliberalisierung, Regulierung, Welt, Financial crisis, International financial market, Financial liberalization, Regulation, World
The Future of the European Growth and Stability Pact
Barry Eichengreen, Lucas D. Papademos
Konvergenzkriterie, Finanzpolitik, Institutionelle Infrastruktur, Internationale wirtschaftspolitische Koordination, Europische Wirtschafts- und Whrungsunion, EU-Staaten, Convergence criteria, Fiscal...
Internationaler Finanzmarkt, Internationales Whrungssystem, Welt, International financial market, International monetary system, World
Understanding West German economic growth in the 1950s.
Barry Eichengreen, Albrecht Ritschl
We evaluate explanations for why Germany grew so quickly in the 1950s. The recent literature has emphasized convergence, structural change and institutional shake-up while minimizing the importance...
Modern Perspectives on the Gold Standard
Bayoumi,Tamim, Eichengreen,Barry, Taylor,Mark P.
Currency crises in Europe and Mexico during the 1990s provided stark reminders of the importance and the fragility of international financial markets. These experiences led some commentators to...
Modern Perspectives on the Gold Standard
Bayoumi,Tamim, Eichengreen,Barry, Taylor,Mark P.
Currency crises in Europe and Mexico during the 1990s provided stark reminders of the importance and the fragility of international financial markets. These experiences led some commentators to...
Corporate governance reform in emerging markets: How much, why, and with what effects?
Ananchotikul, Sudarat, Eichengreen, Barry
This paper extends previous measures of the quality of corporate governance for a cross section of emerging markets. We find that there have been significant improvements in a wide range of countries...