Comments and Discussion (2009)
Kathryn M. Dominguez, Carmen M. Reinhart
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity - 2008, 2
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Thank Vincent Reinhart
The first major financial crisis of the 21 st century involves esoteric instruments, unaware regulators, and skittish investors. It also follows a well-trodden path laid down by centuries of...
Comments welcome. FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability (2007)
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
International Monetary Fund Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a...
Comments welcome. FDI to Africa: The Role of Price Stability and Currency Instability (2007)
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
International Monetary Fund Africa lags behind other regions in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). In some circumstances, there are obvious explanations for the absence of FDI, such as a...
Financial Crises in Asia and Latin America: Then and Now (2007)
Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart
The devaluation of the Thai Baht on July 2, 1997 set off waves of turbulence in currency and equity markets that surpassed the “Tequila ” effects in the wake of the 1994 devaluation of the...
CAPITAL CONTROLS DURING FINANCIAL CRISES: (2007)
Hali J. Edison, Hali J. Edison, Carmen M. Reinhart, Carmen M. Reinhart
NOTE: International Finance Discussion Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References to International Finance Discussion Papers (other than an...
Capital Controls: Myth and Reality, A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls (2005)
Magud, Nicolas, Reinhart, Carmen M., Rogoff, Kenneth S.
45 p.
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion (2005)
Broner, Fernando, Gelos, R. Gaston, Reinhart, Carmen M.
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors risk aversion and behavior. This...
Comments and Discussion (2004)
Caballero, Ricardo J., Reinhart, Carmen M.
Brookings Trade Forum - 2003
Reinhart, Carmen M., Rogoff, Kenneth S., Savastano, Miguel A.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity - 2003, 1
Financial Liberalisation: The African Experience (2003)
Reinhart, Carmen M., Tokatlidis, Ioannis
Almost a decade after their initiation, financial reforms appear to have had little effect on the economies of Sub‐Saharan Africa. Whether the blame falls on their initial design or on the...
A Reinterpretation, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Jel No. F
The authors wish to thank Vincent Reinhart and Miguel Savastano and participants at Harvard’s Canada-US Economic and Monetary Integration Conference for useful comments and suggestions and...
Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings (2002)
Sovereign credit ratings play an important part in determining countries' access to international capital markets and the terms of that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect that...
Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Raymond Reinhart, Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent Raymond Reinhart
Jane Cooley provided excellent research assistance. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Calvo, Guillermo A., Reinhart, Carmen M.
In recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering toll on their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates-- “soft...
Calvo, Guillermo A., Reinhart, Carmen M.
In recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering toll on their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates-- “soft...
When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options (1999)
Calvo, Guillermo A., Reinhart, Carmen M.
In this paper we present evidence that capital account reversals have become more severe for emerging markets. Because policy options are limited in the midst of a capital market crisis and because...
When Capital Inflows Come to a Sudden Stop: Consequences and Policy Options (1999)
Calvo, Guillermo A., Reinhart, Carmen M.
In this paper we present evidence that capital account reversals have become more severe for emerging markets. Because policy options are limited in the midst of a capital market crisis and because...
Este volumen reúne estudios con evidencias que confirman la relación entre ahorro y crecimiento económico, pero no en el sentido de causa-efecto. De hecho, las experiencias latinoamericanas
Este volumen reúne estudios con evidencias que confirman la relación entre ahorro y crecimiento económico, pero no en el sentido de causa-efecto. De hecho, las experiencias latinoamericanas
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK (1997)
The World Bank, Carmen M. Reinhart
This article presents results suggesting that sovereign credit ratings systematically fail to predict currency crises but do considerably better in predicting defaults. Downgrades in credit ratings...
Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s (1996)
A. Calvo, Leonardo Leiderman, Carmen M. Reinhart
Half a decade has passed since the resurgence of international capital flows to many developing countries. About US$460 billion of foreign capital has flowed to developing countries in Asia and Latin...
THE CAPITAL INFLOWS PROBLEM: CONCEPTS AND ISSUES (1994)
CALVO, GUILLERMO A., LEIDERMAN, LEONARDO, REINHART, CARMEN M.
Since 1990, capital has flowed from industrial countries to developing regions like Latin America and parts of Asia. Most countries welcome reentry into international capital markets. However,...
Serial Default and the "Paradox" of Rich to Poor Capital Flows
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
Lucas (1990) argued that it was a paradox that more capital does not flow from rich countries to poor countries. He rejected the standard explanation of expropriation risk and argued that paucity of...
Capital Controls: An Evaluation
Nicholas Magud, Carmen M. Reinhart
The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is not unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls;...
Capital Controls: An Evaluation
Nicolas Magud, Carmen M. Reinhart
The literature on capital controls has (at least) four very serious apples-to-oranges problems: (i) There is no unified theoretical framework to analyze the macroeconomic consequences of controls;...
The demand for money in developing countries: Assessing the role of financial innovation
Arrau, Patricio, De Gregorio, Jose, Reinhart, Carmen M., Wickham, Peter
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Miguel A. Savastano
This paper introduces the concept of "debt intolerance," which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging market economies experience at levels of indebtedness that would seem manageable by...
The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion
Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart, Carlos A. Vegh
Over the last 20 years, some financial events, such as devaluations or defaults, have triggered an immediate adverse chain reaction in other countries--which we call fast and furious contagion. Yet,...
Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s.
Calvo, Guillermo A, Leiderman, Leonardo, Reinhart, Carmen M
Half a decade has passed since the resurgence of international capital flows to many developing countries and history has, once again, shown that foreign investment is prone to repeated booms and...
Leading indicators of currency crises
Kaminsky, Graciela, Lizondo, Saul, Reinhart, Carmen M.
The authors examine the empirical evidence on currency crises and propose a specific early-warning system. This system involves monitoring the evolution of several indicators that tend to exhibit...
On the Use of Reserve Requirements in Dealing with Capital Flow Problems.
Reinhart, Carmen M, Reinhart, Vincent R
In recent years, many developing countries have intervened in foreign exchange markets to offset to some extent the effect on their economies of large capital flows. Often changes in reserve...
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Miguel A. Savastano
This paper introduces the concept of "debt intolerance," which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging market economies experience at levels of indebtedness that would seem manageable by...
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Miguel A. Savastano
This paper introduces the concept of "debt intolerance," which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging market economies experience at levels of indebtedness that would seem manageable by...
The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems
Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart
In the wake of the Mexican and Asian currency turmoil, the subject of financial crises have come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper analyzes the links between banking and...
The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems
Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart
In the wake of the ERM and Mexican currency crises, the subject of balance-of-payments crises has come to the forefront of academic and policy discussions. This paper focuses on the potential links...
Capital controls during financial crises: the case of Malaysia and Thailand
Hali J. Edison, Carmen M. Reinhart
This study examines the impact capital controls had in Malaysia (1998-1999) and Thailand (1997). We aim to assess the extent to which the capital controls were effective in delivering the outcomes...
Too much of a good thing: the macroeconomic effects of taxing capital inflows
Carmen M. Reinhart, R. Todd Smith
Capital movements
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined...
Guillermo A. Calvo, Carmen M. Reinhart
Many emerging market countries have suffered financial crises. One view blames soft pegs for these crises. Adherents of this view suggest that countries move to corner solutions-hard pegs or floating...
Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings
Sovereign credit ratings play an important part in determining countries' access to international capital markets and the terms of that access. In principle, there is no reason to expect that...
When in Peril, Retrench: Testing the Portfolio Channel of Contagion
Fernando Broner, R. Gaston Gelos, Carmen M. Reinhart
One plausible mechanism through which financial market shocks may propagate across countries is through the impact that past gains and losses may have on investors’ risk aversion and behavior. This...
The Capital Inflows Problem: Concepts and Issues.
Calvo, Guillermo A, Leiderman, Leonardo, Reinhart, Carmen M
Since 1990, capital has flowed from industrial countries to developing regions like Latin America and parts of Asia. Most countries welcome reentry into international capital markets. However,...
Financial Liberalisation: The African Experience
Carmen M. Reinhart, Ioannis Tokatlidis
Almost a decade after their initiation, financial reforms appear to have had little effect on the economies of Sub-Saharan Africa. Whether the blame falls on their initial design or on the partial...
Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present
Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart
A considerable literature has examined the causes, consequences, and policy responses to surges in international capital flows. A related strand of papers has attempted to catalog current account...
Guillermo A. Calvo, Carmen M. Reinhart
In recent years, many countries have suffered severe financial crises, producing a staggering toll on their economies, particularly in emerging markets. One view blames fixed exchange rates-- soft...
Guillermo A. Calvo, Carmen M. Reinhart
The Asian crisis took place against a background of exchange rate regimes that were characterized as soft pegs. This has led many analysts to conclude that the peg did it' and that emerging markets...
Temporary Controls on Capital Inflows
Carmen M. Reinhart, R. Todd Smith
During the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features: they were asymmetric, in that they were designed principally to discourage capital inflows,...
What Hurts Most? G-3 Exchange Rate or Interest Rate Volatility
Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart
With many emerging market currencies tied to the U.S. dollar either implicitly or explicitly, movements in the exchange values of the currencies of major countries have the potential to influence the...
Financial Markets in Times of Stress
Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart
In this paper, we examine which markets are most synchronized internationally and exhibit the greater extent of comovement. We focus on daily data for four asset markets: bonds, equities, foreign...
Default, Currency Crises and Sovereign Credit Ratings
Sovereign credit ratings play an important role in determining the terms and the extent to which countries have access to international capital markets. In principle, there is no reason why changes...
The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on...
Twin Fallacies About Exchange Rate Policy in Emerging Markets
Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart
Two assertions about exchange rate regimes circulate with some frequency in policy circles. The first, the hypothesis of the excluded middle, holds that authorities must either choose perfectly...
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Miguel A. Savastano
This paper introduces the concept of debt intolerance,' which manifests itself in the extreme duress many emerging markets experience at debt levels that would seem manageable by advanced country...
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Miguel A. Savastano
Dollarization, in a broad sense, is increasingly a defining characteristic of many emerging market economies. How important is this trend quantitatively and how important is it for the conduct of...
When it Rains, it Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies
Graciela L. Kaminsky, Carmen M. Reinhart, Carlos A. Vegh
Based on a sample of 104 countries, we document four key stylized facts regarding the interaction between capital flows, fiscal policy, and monetary policy. First, net capital inflows are procyclical...
Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
Is the 2007-2008 U.S. sub-prime mortgage financial crisis truly a new and different phenomena? Our examination of the longer historical record finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels to...
Capital Inflows and Reserve Accumulation: The Recent Evidence
Carmen M. Reinhart, Vincent R. Reinhart
Over the past decade, policymakers in many emerging market economies have opted to limit fluctuations of the value of their domestic currencies relative to the U.S. dollar. A simple interest-parity...
This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
This paper offers a "panoramic" analysis of the history of financial crises dating from England’s fourteenth-century default to the current United States sub-prime financial crisis. Our study...
The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
There is a rich scholarly literature on sovereign default on external debt. Comparatively little is known about sovereign defaults on domestic debt. Even today, cross-country data on domestic public...
Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
The historical frequency of banking crises is quite similar in high- and middle-to-low-income countries, with quantitative and qualitative parallels in both the run-ups and the aftermath. We...
The Aftermath of Financial Crises
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
This paper examines the depth and duration of the slump that invariably follows severe financial crises, which tend to be protracted affairs. We find that asset market collapses are deep and...
FLUCTUACIONES DEL PRODUCTO Y CHOQUE MONETARIOS: EVIDENCIA COLOMBIANA
CARMEN M REINHART, VINCENT R REINHART
Usando información anual para Colombia en los últimos treinta años y una batería nueva de técnicas econométricas, evaluamos dos teorías opuestas que explican las fluctuaciones económicas: la...
LA TASA DE CAMBIO REAL COMO META DE POLÍTICA TEORÍA Y EVIDENCIA
CARMEN M REINHART, GUILLERMO A CALVO, CARLOS VEGH
Este trabajo presenta un análisis teórica y empírico de las políticas dirigidas a alcanzar un nivel más depreciado de la tasa de cambio real. Un modelo de optimización intertempolar sugiere...
THE CAPITAL INFLOWS PROBLEM: CONCEPTS AND ISSUES
GUILLERMO A. CALVO, LEONARDO LEIDERMAN, CARMEN M. REINHART
"Since 1990, capital has flowed from industrial countries to developing regions like Latin America and parts of Asia. Most countries welcome reentry into international capital markets. However,...
Money, Crises, and Transition: Essays in Honor of Guillermo A. Calvo
Carmen M. Reinhart, Carlos A. Végh, Andrés Velasco
Guillermo Calvo, one of the most influential macroeconomists of the last thirty years, has made pathbreaking contributions in such areas as time-inconsistency, lack of credibility, stabilization,...
Is the 2007 U.S. Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison
Carmen M. Reinhart, Kenneth S. Rogoff
Is the 2007-2008 U.S. sub-prime mortgage financial crisis truly a new and different phenomena? Our examination of the longer historical record finds stunning qualitative and quantitative parallels to...