Daniel Kahneman, Mark W. Riepe
Decision theorist Howard Raiffa [1968] introduces useful distinctions among three approaches to the analysis of decisions. Normative analysis is concerned with the rational solution to the decision...
Foundations of Behavioral and Experimental Economics: (2009)
Until recently, economics was widely regarded as a non-experimental science that had to rely on observation of real-world economies rather than controlled laboratory experiments. Many commentators...
School of Environmental Sciences, (2008)
Ian J. Bateman, Daniel Kahneman, Alistair Munro, Chris Starmer, Robert Sugden, Ian J. Bateman, ...
University of Warwick, for comments on earlier versions of this paper. This research was
Extensional Versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment (2008)
Martin L. Hoffman, Amos Tversky, Daniel Kahneman
mtribution represented.
Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, Daniel Kahneman
1974, 1983, 2002) published a series of remarkable experiments documenting significant deviations from Bayesian theory of judgment under uncertainty. While KT’s heuristics and biases program has...
Worry and the Illusion of Safety: Evidence from a Real-Objects Experiment * (2007)
Christian Schade, Howard Kunreuther, John Elster, Karen Gedenk, Il-horn Hann, Jack Hershey, ...
Evidence from a Real-Objects Experiment We analyze the impact of an individual’s tendency to worry on willingness to pay (WTP) for a protective measure. We report on the results of a controlled...
1 Evaluation by Moments: Past and Future (2007)
D. Kahneman, A. Tversky (eds, Daniel Kahneman, Daniel Kahneman
The judgments with which this chapter is concerned are common in daily life. We often have the occasion to evaluate the pleasantness or awfulness of incidents in people’s lives; most of us have...
Consistency and Heterogeneity of Individual Behavior under Uncertainty ∗ (2007)
Syngjoo Choi, Raymond Fisman, Shachar Kariv, Jim Andreoni, Dan Ariely, Liran Einav, ...
NYU ∗ Some of the results reported here were previously distributed in a paper titled “Substantive
John A. Rizzo, Richard J. Zeckhauser, John A. Rizzo, Carol Chetkovich, Suzanne Cooper, David Cutler, ...
Why do female physicians earn less than their male counterparts? Data from the Young Physicians Survey yields an answer. Young male and female physicians respond differently to the reference incomes...
John A. Rizzo, Richard J. Zeckhauser, John A. Rizzo, Carol Chetkovich, Suzanne Cooper, David Cutler, ...
Why do female physicians earn less than their male counterparts? Data from the Young Physicians Survey yields an answer. Young male and female physicians respond differently to the reference incomes...
Variants of Uncertainty (2004)
Kahneman, Daniel, Tversky, Amos
In contrast to formal theories of judgment and decision, which employ a single notion of probability, psychological analyses of responses to uncertainty reveal a wide variety of processes and...
La labor considerada por el Comité del Nobel fue realizada conjuntamente con Amos Tversky (1937-1996) durante una larga e inusual colaboración muy estrecha. Juntos, exploramos la psicología de las...
Interdependent security (2003)
Geoffrey Heal, Mark Broadie, David Croson, Ido Erev, Victor Goldberg, Jay Hamilton, ...
Do firms have adequate incentives to invest in protection against a risk whose magnitude depends in the actions of others? This paper characterizes the Nash equilibria for this type of interaction...
Causal Schemata in Judgments under Uncertainty. (2002)
In contrast to the normative theory of evidence, where the impact of data is determined solely by their informativeness, this paper develops the thesis that the impact of evidence on intuitive...
Prospect Theory. An Analysis of Decision Making Under Risk. (2002)
The theoretical basis of decision analysis is utility theory, which describes the principles upon which people wish to base their decisions. This article questions the validity of utility theory and...
Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures. (2002)
This paper presents an approach to elicitation and correction of intuitive forecasts, which attempts to retain the valid component of intuitive judgments while correcting some biases to which they...
The Framing of Decisions and the Rationality of Choice. (2002)
The psychological principles that govern individual decision making produce predictable reversals of preferences when the same decision problem is framed in different ways. Inconsistencies are...
Evidential Impact of Base Rates. (2002)
Research on intuitive judgment shows that base rate data are often neglected or underweighted in individual predictions. Some evidential variables that control the impact of base rate information are...
Judgments of and by Representativeness. (2002)
The concept of representativeness and the conditions in which it can be used to explain intuitive predictions and probability judgments are discussed. Four cases of representativeness are...
The Simulation Heuristic. (2002)
The mental processes by which people construct scenarios, or examples, resemble the running of the simulation model. Mental simulation appears to be used to make predictions, assess probabilities and...
On the Study of Statistical Intuitions. (2002)
The study of intuitions and errors in judgment under uncertainty is complicated by several factors: discrepancies between acceptance and application of normative rules; effects of content on the...
Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions. (2002)
Alternative descriptions of a decision problem often give rise to different preferences, contrary to the principle of invariance that underlies the rational theory of choice. Violations of this...
The work cited by the Nobel committee was done jointly with the late Amos Tversky (1937–1996) during a long and unusually close collaboration. Together, we explored the psychology of intuitive...
Good Day Sunshine: Stock Returns and the Weather (2001)
David Hirshleifer, Tyler Shumway, Michael Cooper, Joshua Coval, Bud Gibson, ...
Psychological evidence and casual intuition predict that sunny weather is associated with upbeat mood. This paper examines the relation between morning sunshine at a country's leading stock...
Dan Ariely, Daniel Kahneman, George Loewenstein
Loewenstein wrote a response. But we were afraid that the two pieces exaggerated our differences and failed to represent our considerable areas of agreement. The purpose of this commentary is to...
Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. (1998)
The paper describes three heuristics, or mental operations, that are employed in judgment under uncertainty. The first is an assessment of representativeness or similarity which is usually performed...
External versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment. (1998)
Perhaps the simplest and the most basic qualitative law of probability is the conjunction rule: the probability of a conjunction P (A&B) cannot exceed the probabilities of its constituents, P(A)...
Norms and the Perception of Events. (1998)
Much of the first year of the project was spent in developing experimental techniques for the study of the implications of norm theory. The particular focus of the research was the idea of attribute...
Norms and Perception of Events. (1998)
In the second year of the grant I continued three projects initiated in the first year, and began two new lines of research. A study of contingent coding in normality judgements yielded disappointing...
Norms and the Perception of Events. (1998)
The major effort of the research reported here has been been directed to understanding multiple representations in thinking and processes of comparison in different domains. Five distinct projects...
Norms and the Perception of Events. (1998)
The research was described in detail in preceding technical reports. This final report draws extensively on earlier ones', but it is somewhat selective, focusing on the more important and/or...
Daniel Kahneman, Eugene Higgins, Mark W. Riepe
this article 11 to 15 Not too bad. 6 to 10 Lots of improvement needed. 21
Happiness and Economic Performance (1997)
Danny Blanchflower, Andrew Clark, Rafael Di Tella, Antonia Sachtleben, ...
were also received during presentations at Durham University and the London
Wouldn't It Be Nice? Predicting Future Feelings (1997)
George Loewenstein, David Schkade, We Thank Diener, Daniel Kahneman
ly on the accuracy of the prediction; errors in predicting feelings are measured in units of divorce, dropout, career burnout and consumer dissatisfaction. The accuracy of people's predictions...
HOW THE SCOPE AND METHOD OF PUBLIC FUNDING AFFECT WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR PUBLIC GOODS (1994)
GREEN, DONALD PHILIP, KAHNEMAN, DANIEL, KUNREUTHER, HOWARD
This article examines the sensitivity of survey measures of willingness to pay for public goods. Visitors to a science museum in San Francisco were asked to provide estimates of their willingness to...
Teoría prospectiva: un análisis de la decisión bajo riesgo (1987)
Tversky, Amos, Kahneman, Daniel
This article presents a criticism of the theory of expected utility as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and presents the prospective theory as an alternative model. The choices...
Ê�ÎÁ�Ï �Æ � ��ÈÁÌ�Ä Ä��ÇÊ ÈÊÇ�Í�ÌÁÇÆ �Ê�Å�ÏÇÊà �ÓÐ�Ò � ��Ñ�Ö�Ö (1891)
Colin F. Camerer, Robin M. Hogarth, Reid Hastie, John Kagel, Daniel Kahneman
The effects of financial incentives in experiments: A review and capital-labor-production framework
Toward National Well-Being Accounts
Daniel Kahneman, Alan B. Krueger, David Schkade, Norbert Schwarz, Arthur Stone
Predictably Incoherent Judgements
Cass R. Sunstein, Daniel Kahneman, David Schkade, Ilana Ritov
When people make moral or legal judgments in isolation, they produce a pattern of outcomes that they would themselves reject, if only they could see that pattern as a whole. A major reason is that...
Testing competing models of loss aversion: an adversarial collaboration
Bateman, Ian, Kahneman, Daniel, Munro, Alistair, Starmer, Chris, Sugden, Robert
Developments in the Measurement of Subjective Well-Being
Daniel Kahneman, Alan B. Krueger
Direct reports of subjective well-being may have a useful role in the measurement of consumer preferences and social welfare, if they can be done in a credible way. Can well-being be measured by a...
Anomalies: Utility Maximization and Experienced Utility
Daniel Kahneman, Richard H. Thaler
In this column, we discuss a version of the utility maximization hypothesis that can be tested--and we find that it is false. We review empirical challenges to utility maximization, which return to...
Policy Forum: Studying Eyewitness Investigations in the Field
Schacter, Daniel L., Dawes, Robyn, Jacoby, Larry L., Kahneman, Daniel, Lempert, Richard, Roediger, Henry L., ...
This article considers methodological issues arising from recent efforts to provide field tests of eyewitness identification procedures. We focus in particular on a field study (Mecklenburg 2006)...
Making Low Probabilities Useful.
Kunreuther, Howard, Novemsky, Nathan, Kahneman, Daniel
This paper explores how people process information on low probability-high consequence negative events and what it will take to get individuals to be sensitive to the likelihood of these types of...
Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty.
Tversky, Amos, Kahneman, Daniel
We develop a new version of prospect theory that employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects. This version, called cumulative prospect theory,...
Interpretations Of Utility And Their Implications For The Valuation Of Health
The term 'utility' can be interpreted in terms of the hedonic experience of an outcome (experienced utility) or in terms of the preference or desire for that outcome (decision utility). It is this...
Experienced Utility as a Standard of Policy Evaluation
Daniel Kahneman, Robert Sugden
This paper explores the possibility of basing economic appraisal on the measurement of experienced utility (utility as hedonic experience) rather than decision utility (utility as a representation of...
Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion
Daniel Kahneman, Alan B. Krueger, David Schkade, Norbert Schwarz, Arthur A. Stone
Most people believe that they would be happier if they were richer, but survey evidence on subjective well-being is largely inconsistent with that belief. Subjective well-being is most commonly...
Would You Be Happier If You Were Richer? A Focusing Illusion
Daniel Kahneman, Alan B. Krueger, David Schkade, Norbert Schwarz, Arthur A. Stone
Most people believe that they would be happier if they were richer, but survey evidence on subjective well-being is largely inconsistent with that belief. Subjective well-being is most commonly...
A Psychological Perspective on Economics
My first exposure to the psychological assumptions of economics was in a report that Bruno Frey wrote on that subject in the early 1970's. Its first or second sentence stated that the agent of...
The Causes of Preference Reversal.
Tversky, Amos, Slovic, Paul, Kahneman, Daniel
Observed preference reversal cannot be adequately explained by violations of independence, the reduction axiom, or transitivity. The primary cause of preference reversal is the failure of procedure...
Fairness as a Constraint on Profit Seeking: Entitlements in the Market.
Kahneman, Daniel, Knetsch, Jack L, Thaler, Richard
Community standards of fairness for the setting of prices and wages were elicited by telephone surveys. In customer or labor markets it isacceptable for a firm to raise prices (or cut wages) when...
Economic Preferences or Attitude Expressions?: An Analysis of Dollar Responses to Public Issues.
Kahneman, Daniel, Ritov, Ilana, Schkade, David A
Participants in contingent valuation surveys and jurors setting punitive damages in civil trials provide answers denominated in dollars. These answers are better understood as expressions of...
Shared Outrage and Erratic Awards: The Psychology of Punitive Damages.
Kahneman, Daniel, Schkade, David, Sunstein, Cass R
An experimental study of punitive damage awards in personal injury cases was conducted, using jury-eligible respondents. There was substantial consensus on judgments of the outrageousness of a...
I was born in Tel Aviv, in what is now Israel, in 1934, while my mother was visiting her extended family there; our regular domicile was in Paris. My parents were Lithuanian Jews, who had immigrated...
The work cited by the Nobel committee was done jointly with the late Amos Tversky (1937-1996) during a long and unusually close collaboration. Together, we explored the psychology of intuitive...
Interview with the 2002 Laureates in Economics, Daniel Kahneman and Vernon L. Smith
Kahneman, Daniel, Smith, Vernon L.
Interview with the 2002 Laureates in Economics, Daniel Kahneman and Vernon L. Smith, December 12, 2002. Interviewers are Professor Karl-Gustaf Loefgren and Dr Anne-Sophie Crepin.
Back to Bentham? Explorations of Experienced Utility.
Kahneman, Daniel, Wakker, Peter P, Sarin, Rakesh
Two core meanings of 'utility' are distinguished. 'Decision utility' is the weight of an outcome in a decision. 'Experienced utility' is a hedonic quality, as in J. Bentham's usage. Experienced...
Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model.
Tversky, Amos, Kahneman, Daniel
Much experimental evidence indicates that choice depends on the status quo or reference level: changes of reference point often lead to reversals of preference. The authors present a...
Do People Want Optimal Deterrence?
Sunstein, Cass R, Schkade, David A, Kahneman, Daniel
Two studies test whether people believe in optimal deterrence. The first provides people with personal injury cases that are identical except for variations in the probability of detection and...
Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem.
Kahneman, Daniel, Knetsch, Jack L, Thaler, Richard H
Contrary to theoretical expectations, measures of willingness-to-accept greatly exceed measures of willingness-to-pay. This paper reports several experiments that demonstrate that this "endowment...
Choosing Less-Preferred Experiences for the Sake of Variety.
Ratner, Rebecca K, Kahn, Barbara E, Kahneman, Daniel
Data from several experiments show that, contrary to traditional models of variety seeking, individuals choose to switch to less-preferred options even though they enjoy those items less than they...
Referendum Contingent Valuation, Anchoring, and Willingness to Pay for Public Goods
Donald Green, Karen Jacowitz, Daniel Kahneman, Daniel McFadden
National Time Accounting: The Currency of Life
Alan B. Krueger, Daniel Kahneman, David Schkade, Norbert Schwarz, Arthur A. Stone
This monograph proposes a new approach for measuring features of society’s subjective well-being, based on time allocation and affective experience. We call this approach National Time Accounting...
National Time Accounting: The Currency of Life
Alan B. Krueger, Daniel Kahneman, David Schkade, Norbert Schwarz, Arthur A. Stone
This monograph proposes a new approach for measuring features of society’s subjective well-being, based on time allocation and affective experience. We call this approach National Time Accounting...
The Endowment Effect: Evidence of Losses Valued More than Gains
Kahneman, Daniel, Knetsch, Jack L., Thaler, Richard H., Charles R. Plott, Vernon L. Smith
Referendum contingent valuation, anchoring, and willingness to pay for public goods
Green, Donald, Jacowitz, Karen E., Kahneman, Daniel, McFadden, Daniel
This study reports on experiments that examine anchoring in single referendum questions in contingent valuation surveys on willingness to pay for public goods, and on objective estimation. Strong...