Derek W. Bunn

Submitted to Management Science manuscript Dynamic Risk Management of Electricity Contracts with Contingent Portfolio Programming (2008)

Janne Kettunen, Ahti Salo, Derek W. Bunn

Where a service provider faces substantial operational risk in meeting demand, as well as price risk in resourc-ing it from a wholesale market, conventional risk management optimization methods can...

Evaluating individual market power in electricity markets via agent-based simulation (2003)

Derek W. Bunn, Fernando S. Oliveira

1 Abstract. We use agent-based simulation in a coordination game to analyse the possibility of market power abuse in a competitive electricity market. The context of this was a real application to...

Development of a multifunctional sales response model with the diagnostic aid of artificial neural networks

Derek W. Bunn, Stefania Pantelidaki

This paper proposes an approach that models and forecasts sales through a flexible parametric response function (multifunctional), allowing for differentiated behavioural assumptions of the response...

Journal of Forecasting

Derek W. Bunn

Papers published in Journal of Forecasting

Modeling the strategic trading of electricity assets

Fernando S. Oliveira, Derek W. Bunn, London Business School

We analyze how strategic asset trading can be used to gain competitive advantage. In the case of electricity markets, companies seek to improve the value of their generating portfolios by acquiring,...

Interaction of European Carbon Trading and Energy Prices

Derek W. Bunn, Carlo Fezzi

This paper addresses the economic impact of the EU Emission Trading Scheme for carbon on wholesale electricity and gas prices. Specifically, we analyse the mutual relationships between electricity,...

Divestiture of Generation Assets in the Electricity Pool of England and Wales: A Computational Approach to Analyzing Market Power.

Day, Christopher J, Bunn, Derek W

The task of developing an adequate modeling approach to understanding strategic behavior in competitive electricity markets is still a major open research question. In this paper, we develop an...

Incentives and coordination in vertically related energy markets

Micola, Augusto Rupérez, Banal-Estañol, Albert, Bunn, Derek W.

We present an agent-based model of a multi-tier energy market. We show how reward interdependence between strategic business units within a vertically integrated firm can increase its profits in...

Crossholdings, concentration and information in capacity-constrained sealed bid-offer auctions

Micola, Augusto Ruperez, Bunn, Derek W.

We present a sequence of simulations to analyse the collusive effects of transparency and different degrees of producer crossholding in energy markets. The results suggest that (a) the functional...

Intra-day and regime-switching dynamics in electricity price formation

Karakatsani, Nektaria V., Bunn, Derek W.

This paper analyses the complex, non-linear effects of spot price drivers in wholesale electricity markets: their intra-day dynamics and transient irregularities. The context is the UK market, after...

Incentives and Coordination in Vertically Related Energy Markets

Augusto Rupérez Micola, Albert Banal Estañol, Derek W. Bunn

We present an agent-based model of a multi-tier energy market including gas shippers, electricity generators and retailers. We show how reward interdependence between strategic business units within...

Computational modelling of price formation in the electricity pool of England and Wales

Bunn, Derek W., Day, Christopher J.

This paper develops a detailed computational model of price formation in the England and Wales electricity pool, as it operated for 11 years from 1990 to 2001. It is clear that during this period,...

Forecasting electricity prices: The impact of fundamentals and time-varying coefficients

Karakatsani, Nektaria V., Bunn, Derek W.

This paper investigates the day-ahead forecasting performance of fundamental price models for electricity spot prices, intended to capture: (i) the impacts of economic, technical, strategic and risk...

A comparison of several adaptive forecasting procedures

Bunn, Derek W

There is a considerable amount of published research relevant to the selection of automatic, online, single exponential smoothing models, applicable primarily to following a stationary process of...

Model-Based Comparisons of Pool and Bilateral Markets for Electricity

John Bower, Derek W. Bunn

A variety of market mechanisms have been proposed and implemented around the world in order to create competitive electricity pools and exchanges. However, it is an open question whether pool-based...