Dowan Kwon, Stephanie Watts-sussman, Fred Collopy, Steven Roach First
The role of IT in the creation of business value has been considered from various perspectives, such as strategic alignment, sustained advantage, and infrastructure capability. In this paper, we try...
The Design of an Interactive and Dynamic Representation of the Firm (2008)
Julia Grant, Lin Zhao, Fred Collopy
Interpretation and audit of financial information is a significant undertaking that must rest on a fuller understanding of the firm and its operations. A pictorial representation of firm activity...
Despite increasing applications of arti®cial neural networks (NNs) to forecasting over the past decade, opinions regarding their contribution are mixed. Evaluating research in this area has been di...
Lin Zhao, Fred Collopy, Miles Kennedy
The results from applying neural networks to business forecasting have been mixed. Among the most encouraging efforts is that of Hill, O’Connor and Remus (1996). In that study, neural networks...
Designing Tailorable Technologies (2008)
This paper provides principles for designing tailorable technologies. Tailorable technologies are technologies that are modified by end users in the context of their use and are around us as desktop...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed...
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred, Yokum, J. Thomas
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a time series in the future. Contrary to the common assumption for extrapolation, time series are not always...
The Design of an Interactive and Dynamic Representation of the Firm (2005)
Julia Grant, Lin Zhao, Fred Collopy
Interpretation and audit of financial information is a significant undertaking that must rest on a fuller understanding of the firm and its operations. A pictorial representation of firm activity...
Designing Tailorable Technologies (2004)
This paper provides principles for designing tailorable technologies. Tailorable technologies are technologies that are modified by end users in the context of their use and are around us as desktop...
Lin Zhao, Fred Collopy, Miles Kennedy
The results from applying neural networks to business forecasting have been mixed. Among the most encouraging efforts is that of Hill, OConnor and Remus (1996). In that study, neural networks...
Dowan Kwon, Stephanie Watts-Sussman, Fred Collopy
The role of IT in the creation of business value has been considered from various perspectives, such as strategic alignment, sustained advantage, and infrastructure capability. In this paper, we try...
Improvisational Lumia: Painting along with Musicians (2001)
Leonardo - Volume 34, Number 4, August 2001
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces (2001)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend...
Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting (2001)
Adya, Monica, Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott, Kennedy, Miles
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time...
Assessing Research Performance: Implications for Selection and Motivation (2001)
An examination of a sample of 67 studies on research performance and productivity published between 1974 and 1998 identified two main perspectives named: evaluative approach and explanatory approach....
An Application of Rule-based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge (2000)
Adya, Monica, Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott, Kennedy, Miles
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and. . . (1997)
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
to maximize shareholder wealth. However, managers often do not explicitly pursue the maximization of profits (Mueller 1992). Instead, they frequently make decisions so as to perform well relative to...
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation (1997)
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, Willam M. Epstein, Richard H. Franke, Raymond Hubbard, ...
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
We examine how competitor-oriented objectives and the availability of competitor oriented information can affect managerial decisions and the profitability of firms. Using a variety of evidence...
The profitability of winning (1994)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
Introduction: Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: "The marketplace...
Collopy, Fred, Adya, Monica, Armstrong, J. Scott
Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We believe this has value to information systems (IS) researchers. To demonstrate, we used a widely cited...
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory...
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time Series Extrapolation (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select...
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation (1993)
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select...
Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities (1992)
Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for...
Error Measures for Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons (1992)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct...
Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons (1992)
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
: This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct...
Expert Opinions About Extrapolation And The Mystery Of The Overlooked Discontinuities (1992)
Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, The Weatherhead School, J. Scott, Armstrong The, Wharton School
: We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for...
Toward computer-aided forecasting systems: gathering, coding, and validating the knowledge (1989)
Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott
Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to make forecasts. The sessions with the experts yielded rules about when various extrapolation methods...
Fildes, Robert, Bretschneider, Stuart, Collopy, Fred, Lawrence, Michael, Stewart, Doug, Winklhofer, Heidi, ...
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting
Adya, Monica, Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott, Kennedy, Miles
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge
Adya, Monica, Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred, Kennedy, Miles
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces.
Armstrong, J Scott, Collopy, Fred
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend...
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select...
This paper examines the feasibility of rule -based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We...
Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability
Managers are often advised, 'beat your competitors,' which sometimes contrasts with the advice, 'do the best for your firm.' This may lead managers to focus on comparative measures such as market...
Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: “The marketplace is a...