Gerd Gigerenzer, Wolfgang Gaissmaier, Elke Kurz-milcke, Lisa M. Schwartz, Steven Woloshin
SUMMARY Many doctors, patients, journalists, and politicians alike do not understand what health statistics mean or draw wrong conclusions without noticing. Collective statistical illiteracy refers...
toward an evolutionarily rigorous cognitive science (2009)
Leda Cosmides, John Tooby B, Martin Daly, Mike Gazzaniga, Gerd Gigerenzer, Steve Pinker, ...
Cognitive psychology has an opportunity to turn itself into a theoretically rigorous discipline in which a powerful set of theories organize observations and suggest focused new hypotheses. This...
© 2001 Elsevier Science. Decision Making: Nonrational Theories (2009)
The term “nonrational ” denotes a heterogeneous class of theories of decision making designed to overcome problems with traditional “rational ” theories. Nonrational theories have been...
Legal concerns trigger prostate-specific antigen testing (2009)
Steurer, Johan, Held, Ulrike, Schmidt, Mathias, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Tag, Brigitte, Bachman, Lucas M.
Decisioni intuitive, quando si sceglie senza pensarci troppo, Gerd Gigerenzer. . - Milano. NALUAF00001079, Cortina. NAEDAF001008. 2009.
Incidencia del aprendizaje grupal en los procesos de adquisición de información (2009)
García-Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Frecuentemente, basamos nuestras decisiones en diversas claves con distinto poder predictivo. Para obtener una precisión elevada en dichas decisiones, es crucial el orden en que exploramos las...
Public Knowledge of Benefits of Breast and Prostate Cancer Screening in Europe (2009)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Mata, Jutta, Frank, Ronald
Making informed decisions about breast and prostate cancer screening requires knowledge of its benefits. However, country-specific information on public knowledge of the benefits of screening is...
Glaub keiner Statistik, die du nicht verstanden hast (2009)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Gaissmaier, Wolfgang, Kurz-Milcke, Elke, Schwartz, Lisa M., Woloshin, Steven
Does imitation benefit cue order learning? (2009)
García-Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Incidencia del aprendizaje grupal en los procesos de adquisición de información (2009)
García-Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Domain-Specifi c Reasoning: Social Contracts, Cheating, and Perspective Change (2008)
Abstract. What counts as human rationality: reasoning processes that embody content-independent formal theories, such as propositional logic, or reasoning processes that are well designed for solving...
How to Learn Good Cue Orders: When Social Learning Benefits Simple Heuristics (2008)
Rocio Garcia-retamero, Masanori Takezawa, Gerd Gigerenzer
Take The Best (TTB) is a simple one-reason decisionmaking strategy that searches through cues in the order of cue validities. Interestingly, this heuristic performs comparably to, or even better...
Was Bernoulli Wrong? On Intuitions about Sample Size (2008)
Peter Sedlmeier, Gerd Gigerenzer
Recently we proposed an explanation for the apparently inconsistent result that people sometimes take account of sample size and sometimes do not: Human intuitions conform to the `empirical law of...
© 2004 MIT Press. Striking a Blow for Sanity in Theories of Rationality (2008)
I took the title of this chapter from an email Herbert A. Simon sent me in May 1999. In this email, he wrote a statement for the back cover of Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart in which he...
1 Law and Heuristics An Interdisciplinary Venture (2008)
Christoph Engel, Gerd Gigerenzer
complained that the “lawyer and the judge and the juryman are sure that they do not need the experimental psychologist.…They go on thinking that their legal instinct and their common sense...
Below is the unedited draft of: (2008)
Peter M. Todd, Gerd Gigerenzer
This is the unedited précis of a book that is being accorded BBS multiple book review (Copyright 1999: Cambridge University Press U.K./U.S..) The précis is for inspection only, to help prospective...
Consistency versus accuracy of beliefs: Economists surveyed about PSA (2008)
Nathan Berg, Guido Biele, Gerd Gigerenzer
Abstract: We surveyed 133 attendees at the 2006 meeting of the American Economic Association (AEA) about their beliefs and behavior regarding the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) test for prostate...
Scientifi c inquiry can be viewed as “an ocean, continuous everywhere and without a break or division, ” in Leibniz’s words (1690/1951, p. 73). Hans Reichenbach nonetheless divided this ocean...
John Woods, Wcr Ls, Gerd Gigerenzer
“While man’s desires and aspirations stir, He cannot choose but to err.” Johan Wolfgang von Goethe “I think, therefore I err.”
Ulrich Hoffrage, Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer
With the benefi t of feedback about the outcome of an event, people’s recalled judgments are typically closer to the outcome of the event than their original judgments were. It has been suggested...
Specifi c Attentional Dysfunction in Adults Following Early Start of Cannabis Use (2008)
Hannelore Ehrenreich, Thomas Rinn, Hanns J. Kunert, Manfred R. Moeller, Wolfgang Poser, Lothar Schilling, ...
Abstract. Rationale and objective: The present study tested the hypothesis that chronic interference by cannabis with endogenous cannabinoid systems during peripubertal development causes specifi c...
Individual decision making and the evolutionary roots of institutions (2008)
McElreath, Richard, Boyd, Robert, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Glöckner, Andreas, Hammerstein, Peter, Kurzban, Robert, ...
One-reason decision making (2008)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Martignon, Laura, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Rieskamp, Jörg, Czerlinksi, Jean, Goldstein, Daniel G.
Cognitive illusions reconsidered (2008)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hertwig, Ralph, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Sedlmeier, Peter
The recognition heuristic : A fast and frugal way to investment choice? (2008)
Ortmann, Andreas, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Borges, Bernhard, Goldstein, Daniel G.
Comunicación grupal y estrategias de toma de decisiones (2008)
García-Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
En nuestro entorno, frecuentemente hacemos inferencias sobre los acontecimientos. Muchas de estas inferencias no se realizan individualmente: En ocasiones, tomamos decisiones colectivas o...
Investment decisions : From Homo oeconomicus to Homo heuristicus (2008)
Monti, Marco, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Martignon, Laura, Berg, Nathan
Comunicación grupal y estrategias de toma de decisiones (2008)
García-Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Do citizens have minimum medical knowledge? A survey (2007)
Bachmann, Lucas M, Gutzwiller, Florian S, Puhan, Milo A, Steurer, Johann, Steurer-Stey, Claudia, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Abstract Background Experts defined a "minimum medical knowledge" (MMK) that people need for understanding typical signs and/or risk factors of four relevant clinical conditions: myocardial...
Do citizens have minimum medical knowledge? A survey (2007)
Bachmann, Lucas M., Gutzwiller, Florian S., Puhan, Milo A., Steurer, Johann, Steurer-Stey, Claudia, Gigerenzer, Gerd
regulate risk-taking
Why you think Milan is larger than Modena: Neural correlates of the recognition heuristic (2006)
Volz, Kirsten G., Schooler, L. J., Schubotz, Ricarda Ines, Raab, Markus, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Von Cramon, D. Yves
18
Group report : Are heuristics a problem or a solution? (2006)
Kysar, Douglas A., Ayton, Peter, Frank, Robert H., Frey, Bruno S., Gigerenzer, Gerd, Glimcher, Paul W., ...
Why you think Milan is larger than Modena : Neural correlates of the recognition heuristic (2006)
Volz, Kirsten G., Schooler, Lael J., Schubotz, Ricarda I., Raab, Markus, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Von Cramon, D. Yves
How to learn good cue orders : When social learning benefits simple heuristics (2006)
García-Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Why you think Milan is larger than Modena: Neural correlates of the recognition heuristic (2006)
Volz, Kirsten G., Schooler, Lael J., Schubotz, Ricarda I., Raab, Markus, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Von Cramon, D. Yves
Why you think Milan is larger than Modena: Neural correlates of the recognition heuristic (2006)
Volz, Kirsten G., Schooler, Lael J., Schubotz, Ricarda I., Raab, Markus, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Von Cramon, D. Yves
Why you think Milan is larger than Modena: Neural correlates of the recognition heuristic (2006)
Volz, Kirsten G., Schooler, Lael J., Schubotz, Ricarda I., Raab, Markus, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Von Cramon, D. Yves
How to Confuse with Statistics or: The Use and Misuse of Conditional Probabilities (2005)
Krämer, Walter, Gigerenzer, Gerd
This article shows by various examples how consumers of statistical information may be confused when this information is presented in terms of conditional probabilities. It also shows how this...
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hertwig, Ralph, Van Den Broeck, Eva, Fasolo, Barbara, Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V.
Fasolo, Barbara, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hertwig, Ralph, Van Den Broek, Eva, Katsikopoulos, Konstantinos V
Models of Ecological Rationality: The Recognition Heuristic (2002)
Daniel G. Goldstein, Gerd Gigerenzer, Max Planck
One view of heuristics is that they are imperfect versions of optimal statistical procedures considered too complicated for ordinary minds to carry out. In contrast, the authors consider heuristics...
What is the role of culture in bounded rationality? (2001)
Henrich,Joseph, Albers,Wulf, Boyd,Robert, Gigerenzer,Gerd, McCabe,Kevin A., Ockenfels,Axel, ...
Why and when do simple heuristics work? (2001)
Goldstein,Daniel Gray, Gigerenzer,Gerd, Hogarth,Robin M., Kacelnik,Alex, Kareev,Yaakov, Klein,Gary, ...
What is the role of culture in bounded rationality? (2001)
Henrich, Joseph, Albers, Wulf, Boyd, Robert, Gigerenzer, Gerd, McCabe, Kevin A., Ockenfels, Axel, ...
Why and when do simple heuristics work? (2001)
Goldstein, Daniel Gray, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hogarth, Robin M., Kacelnik, Alex, Kareev, Yaakov, Klein, Gary, ...
Group Report: Why and When Do Simple Heuristics Works? (2001)
SCHLAG, Karl H., GOLDSTEIN, Darra, GIGERENZER, Gerd, HOGART, Robert, KACELNIK, A., KAREEV, Y., ...
Group Report: Why and When Do Simple Heuristics Works? (2001)
SCHLAG, Karl H., GOLDSTEIN, Darra, GIGERENZER, Gerd, HOGART, Robert, KACELNIK, A., KAREEV, Y., ...
Communicating statistical information (2000)
Hoffrage,Ulrich, Lindsey,Samuel, Hertwig,Ralph, Gigerenzer,Gerd
Communicating statistical information (2000)
Hoffrage, Ulrich, Lindsey, Samuel, Hertwig, Ralph, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Gigerenzer,Gerd, Hoffrage,Ulrich
Experts' and laypeople's reasoning in Bayesian-type problems can be improved by representing information in frequency formats rather than in probabilities. This thesis opens up important applications...
Can ignorance beat the stock market? (1999)
Borges,B., Goldstein,Daniel G., Ortmann,Andreas, Gigerenzer,Gerd
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hoffrage, Ulrich
Experts' and laypeople's reasoning in Bayesian-type problems can be improved by representing information in frequency formats rather than in probabilities. This thesis opens up important applications...
Das Reich des Zufalls : Wissen zwischen Wahrscheinlichkeiten, Häufigkeiten und Unschärfen (1999)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Swijtink, Zeno G., Porter, Theodore, Daston, Lorraine, Beatty, John, Krüger, Lorenz
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Rösler, Frank, Spada, Hans, Amelang, Manfred, Bierhoff, Hans Werner, Ferstl, Roman, ...
Can ignorance beat the stock market? (1999)
Borges, B., Goldstein, Daniel G., Ortmann, Andreas, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Das Reich des Zufalls : Wissen zwischen Wahrscheinlichkeiten, Häufigkeiten und Unschärfen (1999)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Swijtink, Zeno G., Porter, Theodore, Daston, Lorraine, Beatty, John, Krüger, Lorenz
Specific attentional dysfunctions in adults following early start of cannabis use (1999)
Ehrenreich, Hannelore, Rinn, Thomas, Kunert, Hanns J., Moeller, Manfred R., Poser, Wolfgang, Schilling, Lothar, ...
The ‘Conjunction Fallacy’ Revisited: How Intelligent Inferences Look Like Reasoning Errors (1999)
Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer
Findings in recent research on the `conjunction fallacy ' have been taken as evidence that our minds are not designed to work by the rules of probability. This conclusion springs from the idea...
Overcoming difficulties in Bayesian reasoning: A reply to Lewis and Keren (1999)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage
Bayesian reasoning can be improved by representing information in frequency formats rather than in probabilities. This thesis opens up applications in medicine, law, statistics education, and other...
Chase,Valerie M., Hertwig,Ralph, Gigerenzer,Gerd
The classical view that equates rationality with adherence to the laws of probability theory and logic has driven much research on human inference. Recently, an increasing number of researchers have...
AIDS counselling for low-risk clients (1998)
Gigerenzer,Gerd, Hoffrage,Ulrich, Ebert,A.
This study addresses the counselling of heterosexual men with low-risk behaviour who, voluntarily or involuntarily, take an HIV test. If such a man tests positive, the chance that he is infected can...
Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences (1998)
Hoffrage,Ulrich, Gigerenzer,Gerd
Purpose. To test whether physicians diagnostic inferences can be improved by communicating information using natural frequencies instead of probabilities. Whereas probabilities and relative...
Chase, Valerie M., Hertwig, Ralph, Gigerenzer, Gerd
The classical view that equates rationality with adherence to the laws of probability theory and logic has driven much research on human inference. Recently, an increasing number of researchers have...
AIDS counselling for low-risk clients (1998)
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Ebert, A.
This study addresses the counselling of heterosexual men with low-risk behaviour who, voluntarily or involuntarily, take an HIV test. If such a man tests positive, the chance that he is infected can...
Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences (1998)
Hoffrage, Ulrich, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Purpose. To test whether physicians diagnostic inferences can be improved by communicating information using natural frequencies instead of probabilities. Whereas probabilities and relative...
R. Hertwig, Cognition Max, Valerie M. Chase, Ralph Hertwig, Gerd Gigerenzer
The classical view that equates rationality with adherence to the laws of probability theory and logic has driven much research on inference. Recently, an increasing number of researchers have begun...
AIDS counselling for low-risk clients (1998)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoff Rage, Axel Ebert
Abstract. Th is study addresses the counselling of heterosexual men with low-risk behaviour who, voluntarily or involuntarily, take a HIV test. If such a man tests positive, the chance that he is...
Surrogates for theories (1998)
Abstract. I first discuss several strategies that serve as surrogates for theories in psychology: one-word explanation, redescription, drawing vague dichotomies, and data fitting. I then identify two...
Using natural frequencies to improve diagnostic inferences (1998)
Ulrich Hoffrage, Gerd Gigerenzer
Purpose. To test whether physicians ’ diagnostic inferences can be improved by communicating information using natural frequencies instead of probabilities. Whereas probabilities and relative...
Intuitions about sample size: The empirical law of large numbers (1997)
Sedlmeier, P., Gigerenzer, Gerd
10
Rationality in reasoning: The problem of deductive competence - Commentary (1997)
Hertwig, Ralph, Ortmann, Andreas, Gigerenzer, Gerd
16
Deductive competence: A desert devoid of content and context (1997)
Hertwig, Ralph, Ortmann, Andreas, Gigerenzer, Gerd
16
The reiteration effect in hindsight bias (1997)
Hertwig, Ralph, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hoffrage, Ulrich
104
Bounded rationality: Models of fast and frugal inference (1997)
Humans and other animals need to make inferences about their environment under constraints of limited time, knowledge, and computational capacities. However, most theories of inductive inferences...
Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality (1996)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel G. Goldstein
Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In contrast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped with unlimited time,...
Reasoning the fast and frugal way: Models of bounded rationality (1996)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Daniel G. Goldstein
Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In con-trast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped with un-limited...
How do we tell an association from a rule? Comment on Sloman (1996)
S. A. Sloman’s (1996) intriguing argument for separate associative and rule-based reasoning systems is unfortunately damaged by a certain amount of slack in the distinction he makes between these...
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats (1995)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage
Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive algorithms. However, any claim...
Discovery in cognitive psychology: New tools inspire new theories (1992)
Scientifi c tools—measurement and calculation instruments, techniques of inference—straddle the line between the context of discovery and the context of justifi cation. In discovery, new...
Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence (1991)
Gerd Gigerenzer, Ulrich Hoffrage, Heinz Kleinbölting
Research on people’s confidence in their general knowledge has to date produced two fairly stable effects, many inconsistent results, and no comprehensive theory. We propose such a comprehensive...
From tools to theories: A heuristic of discovery in cognitive psychology (1991)
The study of scientific discovery—where do new ideas come from?—has long been denigrated by philosophers as irrelevant to analyzing the growth of scientific knowledge. In particular, little is...
Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Edwards, Adrian
Bad presentation of medical statistics such as the risks associated with a particular intervention can lead to patients making poor decisions on treatment. Particularly confusing are single event...
Simple tools for understanding risks: from innumeracy to insight
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Edwards, Adrian
Bad presentation of medical statistics such as the risks associated with a particular intervention can lead to patients making poor decisions on treatment. Particularly confusing are single event...
Rationality: Why social context matters
Rationality is commonly identified with axioms and rules, such as consistency, which are defined without reference to context, but are imposed in all contexts. In this chapter, I focus on the social...
Do citizens have minimum medical knowledge? A survey
Bachmann, Lucas M, Gutzwiller, Florian S, Puhan, Milo A, Steurer, Johann, Steurer-Stey, Claudia, Gigerenzer, Gerd
Psychology Implies Paternalism? Bounded Rationality may Reduce the Rationale to Regulate Risk-Taking
Improving medical decision making
Barton, Adrien, Gaissmaier, Wolfgang, Galesic, Mirta, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Mata, Jutta, Straubinger, Nils, ...
One-reason decision-making: Modeling violations of expected utility theory
Konstantinos Katsikopoulos, Gerd Gigerenzer
Decision making, EVT, EUT, St. Petersburg Paradox,
Bounded Rationality: Models of Fast and Frugal Inference
I specify general criteria for models of bounded rationality and discuss specific models for satisficing inference. The task of these fast and frugal algorithms is to infer unknown features of their...
Cognitive illusions reconsidered
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hertwig, Ralph, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Sedlmeier, Peter
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Martignon, Laura, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Rieskamp, Joerg, Czerlinski, Jean, Goldstein, Dan G.
Representations of uncertainty and change: Three case studies with experts
Kurz, Elke, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hoffrage, Ulrich
[from the conclusion section:] In this chapter, we have argued (i) that the calculi of uncertainty and change provide multiple representations, which bridge the past and present, (ii) that the choice...
Hindsight Bias: A By-product of Knowledge Updating
Hoffrage, Ulrich, Hertwig, Ralph, Gigerenzer, Gerd
After feedback, peopleãs recollections of judgments they made earlier differ systematically from their actual original judgments: Their recollection judgments are typically closer to the truth than...
Intransitivity of fast and frugal heuristics
Lages, Martin, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Gigerenzer, Gerd
How to derive and predict intransitivities from fast and frugal heuristics, such as Take The Best, Minimalist, and Take The Last? It is specified in analytical terms under which conditions these...
Rationality the Fast and Frugal Way: Introduction
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Todd, Peter M., Charles R. Plott, Vernon L. Smith
The Recognition Heuristic and the Less-Is-More Effect
Goldstein, Daniel G., Gigerenzer, Gerd, Charles R. Plott, Vernon L. Smith
The Recognition Heuristic: A Fast and Frugal Way to Investment Choice?
Ortmann, Andreas, Gigerenzer, Gerd, Borges, Bernhard, Goldstein, Daniel G., Charles R. Plott, Vernon L. Smith
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Martignon, Laura, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Rieskamp, Jörg, Czerlinski, Jean, Goldstein, Daniel G., ...
Cognitive Illusions Reconsidered
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Hertwig, Ralph, Hoffrage, Ulrich, Sedlmeier, Peter, Charles R. Plott, Vernon L. Smith
Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox
Gerd Gigerenzer, Reinhard Selten
In a complex and uncertain world, humans and animals make decisions under the constraints of limited knowledge, resources, and time. Yet models of rational decision making in economics, cognitive...
Gerd Gigerenzer, Christoph Engel
In recent decades, the economists' concept of rational choice has dominated legal reasoning. And yet, in practical terms, neither the lawbreakers the law addresses nor officers of the law behave as...
Public Knowledge of Benefits of Breast and Prostate Cancer Screening in Europe
Gigerenzer, Gerd, Mata, Jutta, Frank, Ronald
Making informed decisions about breast and prostate cancer screening requires knowledge of its benefits. However, country-specific information on public knowledge of the benefits of screening is...
Incidencia del aprendizaje grupal en los procesos de adquisición de información
García Retamero, Rocío, Takezawa, Masanori, Gigerenzer, Gerd
En: Psicothema Oviedo 2009, v. 21, n. 3 ; p. 369-375