A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crashes and Asymmetric Policy Responses - An Overinvestment View (2009)
Hoffmann, Andreas, Schnabl, Gunther
The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant...
Monetary Policy Operations of Debtor Central Banks in MENA Countries (2007)
Schnabl, Gunther, Schobert, Franziska
The paper analyses the monetary policy operations of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We distinguish the pattern of monetary policy operations of the liquidity providing...
Schnabl, Gunther, Hoffmann, Andreas
Credit booms have globally fuelled hikes in stock, raw material and real estate markets which have culminated in the recent US subprime market crisis. We explain the global asset market booms since...
Schnabl, Gunther, Hoffmann, Andreas
We show how since the mid 1980s expansionary monetary policies in the large economies and “vagabonding liquidity” have contributed to bubbles in the new and emerging markets. Based on the...
McKinnon, Ronald, Schnabl, Gunther
China's fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan to the dollar from 1994 to July 2005, and has only allowed for a small appreciation since then. China's productivity growth has been very high relative to...
McKinnon, Ronald, Schnabl, Gunther
China's fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan to the dollar from 1994 to July 2005, and has only allowed for a small appreciation since then. China's productivity growth has been very high relative to...
McKinnon, Ronald, Schnabl, Gunther
China's fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan to the dollar from 1994 to July 2005, and has only allowed for a small appreciation since then. China's productivity growth has been very high relative to...
China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia? The problem of conflicted virtue (2005)
Rapidly growing Chinese exports are middle-tech - and increasingly high-tech - manufactured goods. China runs a huge and growing bilateral trade surplus with the United States, and the position of...
De jure versus de facto exchange rate stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe (2005)
The IMF classifications of the Central and Eastern European exchange rate arrangements are heterogeneous. While one group of countries reports tight pegs to the euro, a second group seems to have...
The changing role of the yen/dollar exchange rate for japanese monetary policy (2005)
Schnabl, Gunther, Danne, Christian
This paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate in the Bank of Japans monetary policy reaction function. In contrast to prior estimations of reaction functions based on the Taylor-rule,...
Der Druck auf die chinesische Regierung, die Wechselkursbindung des chinesischen Yuan an den US Dollar aufzugeben, ist groß. Seitdem der Dollar unter kontinuierlichem Abwertungsdruck steht, wird in...
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 24. lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 23. lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 22. lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 21. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 21. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 22. lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 23. lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 24. lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 04. February 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 20. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 19. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 18. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 17. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 17. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 18. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 19. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 20. Lesson (2005)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 21. January 2005
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 16. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 15. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 14. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 13. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 13. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 14. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 15. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 16. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 17. December 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 12. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 11. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 10. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 9. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 9. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 10. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 11. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 12. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 26. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 8. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 7. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 6. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 5. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 5. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 6. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 7. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 8. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 05. November 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 4. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 3. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 2. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 1. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 1. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 2. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 3. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Lecture European Monetary Integration, 4. Lesson (2004)
Lecture WiSe 2004-2005; Friday, 22. Oktober 2004
Paul De Grauwe, Gunther Schnabl
This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the future Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states. Based on a Balassa-Samuelson model of...
Paul De Grauwe, Gunther Schnabl
This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the future Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states. Based on a Balassa-Samuelson model of...
DE GRAUWE, Paul, SCHNABL, Gunther
http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/04_20.pdf
DE GRAUWE, Paul, SCHNABL, Gunther
http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/04_20.pdf
DE GRAUWE, Paul, SCHNABL, Gunther
http://www.iue.it/RSCAS/WP-Texts/04_20.pdf
Thesis (doctoral) - Universität, Tübingen, 1999.
Paul De Grauwe, Gunther Schnabl
This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the future Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU member states. Based on a Balassa-Samuelson model of...
Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe
Paul De Grauwe, Gunther Schnabl
This paper explores the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU candidate countries. The panel estimations for the period between 1994...
Ronald Ian McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
China keeps its exchange rate tightly fixed to the dollar. Its productivity growth and trade surplus have been high, and it continues to accumulate large dollar reserves. Many observers take this as...
Eric Hillebrand, Gunther Schnabl, Yasemin Ulu
We use realized volatility to study the influence of central bank interventions on the yen/dollar exchange rate. Realized volatility is a technical innovation that allows specifying a system of...
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
China's fixed its exchange rate at 8.28 yuan to the dollar from 1994 to July 2005, and has only allowed for a small appreciation since then. China's productivity growth has been very high relative to...
Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets
Schnabl, Gunther, Hoffmann, Andreas
We show how since the mid 1980s expansionary monetary policies in the large economies and “vagabonding liquidity” have contributed to bubbles in the new and emerging markets. Based on the...
Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery
Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, exchange rate stability at the periphery of the euro area is growing. The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate stability on growth for a...
The Evolution of the East Asian Currency Baskets – Still Undisclosed and Changing
Both before and after the Asian crisis, the dollar has been the dominant anchor and reserve currency in East Asia. Due to underdeveloped capital markets and the limited international role of their...
Schnabl, Gunther, Hoffmann, Andreas
Credit booms have globally fuelled hikes in stock, raw material and real estate markets which have culminated in the recent US subprime market crisis. We explain the global asset market booms since...
Monetary Policy Operations of Debtor Central Banks in MENA Countries
Schnabl, Gunther, Schobert, Franziska
The paper analyses the monetary policy operations of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). We distinguish the pattern of monetary policy operations of the liquidity providing...
Gunther Schnabl, Andreas Hoffmann
Credit booms have globally fuelled hikes in stock, raw material and real estate markets which have culminated in the recent US subprime market crisis. We explain the global asset market booms since...
The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Before the crisis of 1997/98, the East Asian economies-except for Japan but including China-pegged their currencies to the US dollar. To avoid further turmoil, the IMF argues that these currencies...
The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Before the 1997-98 crisis, the East Asian economies - except for Japan - informally pegged their currencies to the dollar. These soft pegs made them vulnerable to a depreciating yen, thereby...
A Role Model for China? Exchange Rate Flexibility and Monetary Policy in Japan
Gunther Schnabl, Christian Danne
Few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under flexible exchange rates. As Japan provides an important role model for China, this paper studies the role of the...
Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia
The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia. Exchange stability has been argued to affect growth negatively as it deprives countries from...
Eric Hillebrand, Gunther Schnabl
While up to the late 1990s Japanese foreign exchange intervention was fully sterilized, Japanese monetary authorities left foreign exchange intervention unsterilized when Japan entered the liquidity...
Weak Economy and Strong Currency : The Origins of the Strong Yen in the 1990s
Der Yen ist in der japanischen Rezession der 90er Jahre überraschend stark geblieben. Der Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen für den hohen Yen. Er analysiert den Einfluss von Zinsen, Preisen und...
Nominal Versus Real Convergence - EMU Entry Scenarios for the New Member States
This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the Central and Eastern European member states. Using a Balassa-Samuelson model of productivity driven...
Gunther Schnabl, Paul De Grauwe
This paper explores the conflict of real and monetary convergence during the EMU run-up of the Central and Eastern European new EU member states. Based on a Balassa-Samuelson model of productivity...
Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe
Paul De Grauwe, Gunther Schnabl
The IMF classifications of the Central and Eastern European exchange rate arrangements are heterogeneous. While one group of countries reports tight pegs to the euro, a second group seems to have...
De jure versus de facto Exchange Rate Stabilization in Central and Eastern Europe
The IMF classifications of the Central and Eastern European (CEE) exchange rate arrange-ments are heterogeneous. While one group of countries reports tight pegs to the euro, a second group seems to...
Weak Economy and Strong Currency - The Origins of the Strong Yen in the 1990s
During the 1990’s the Japanese yen proved astonishingly strong despite the persisting recession. This paper tracks the origins of the high yen. It analyses the influence of interest rates, prices...
The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Before the 1997-98 crisis, the East Asian economies—except for Japan—informally pegged their currencies to the dollar. These soft pegs made them vulnerable to a depreciating yen thereby...
The Effects of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: GARCH Estimation and Change Point Detection
Eric Hillebrand, Gunther Schnabl
We study the impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention on the volatility of the yen/dollar exchange rate since the early 1990s based on a GARCH framework. Using daily intervention data...
Although most CIS and East Asian countries are de jure classified as free floaters, they de facto pursue (tight) dollar pegs. This paper emphasizes dollar denomination of short-term and long-term...
The Changing Role of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate for Japanese Monetary Policy
Gunther Schnabl, Christian Danne
This paper studies the role of the yen/dollar exchange rate in the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy reaction function. In contrast to prior estimations of reaction functions based on the...
International Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS
In this paper, we examine the rationale for dollar and euro pegging in Russia and the CIS. We consider macroeconomic stabilization and transaction costs for international trade as rationales for...
Purchasing Power Parity: Granger Causality Tests for the Yen- Dollar Exchange Rate
The paper analyses the causality between the Japanese-US relative export prices and the yen-dollar exchange rate. It explains why the Japanese yen proved strong even during the economic slump of the...
The Russian Currency Basket: The Rising Role of the Euro for Russia’s Exchange Rate Policies
In 2005, the Bank of Russia has made three announcements that indicate an increasing role for the euro in the Russian exchange rate strategy. On February 4 2005 the Bank of Russia announced that it...
Exchange rate volatility and growth in small open economies at the EMU periphery
Since the introduction of the euro in January 1999, exchange rate stability in the periphery of the euro area is growing. The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate stability on growth for a...
A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan
DANNE, Christian, SCHNABL, Gunther
A substantial number of papers have proposed to allow for more exchange rate flexibility of the Chinese yuan. But few papers have tried to project how Chinese monetary policy will behave under...
China’s Exchange Rate Impasse and the Weak U.S. Dollar
Ronald Ian McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Since 2004, China has been backed into a situation where the renminbi is expected to go ever higher against the dollar, and this one-way bet has led to a loss of domestic monetary control. Combined...
The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Before the crisis of 1997-98, the East Asian economies ¡X except for Japan but including China ¡X pegged their currencies to the U.S. dollar. To avoid further turmoil, the IMF now argues that these...
Synchronized Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Because many authors have proposed stimulating the ailing Japanese economy by monetary expansion and yen depreciation, we explore the repercussions of depreciating the yen against the dollar on the...
China: A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? THe Problem of Conflict Virtue
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
Rapidly growing Chinese exports are middle-tech¡V¡Vand increasingly high-tech¡V¡Vmanufactured goods. China runs a huge and growing bilateral trade surplus with the United States, and the position...
Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation, and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe
Paul De Grauwe, Gunther Schnabl
The authors analyze the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in (South) Eastern and Central Europe. For the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact...
Gunther Schnabl, Andreas Hoffmann
Abstract 'Capitalism without failure is like religion without sin'. Charles Kindleberger's book Manias, Panics and Crashes points out that speculation and crises have always been present: the world...
The US Dollar and the Euro as International Currencies
Ramkishen Rajan, Jose Kiran, Carsten Hefeker, Gunther Schnabl
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
August 2002 Since the early 1980s, the smaller East Asian economies have experienced a synchronized business cycle. Before the Asian crisis of 1997-98, they pegged their exchange rates to the US...
The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
January 2003 Before the crisis of 1997-98, the East Asian economies—except for Japan but including China— pegged their currencies to the US dollar. To avoid further turmoil, the IMF now argues...
China: A Stabilizing or Deflationary Influence in East Asia? The Problem of Conflicted Virtue
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
May 2003 Rapidly growing Chinese exports are middle-tech—and increasingly high-tech—manufactured goods. China runs a huge and growing bilateral trade surplus with the United States, and the...
International Capital Markets and Informal Dollar Standards in the CIS and East Asia
Although most CIS and East Asian countries are de jure classified as free floaters, they de facto pursue (tight) dollar pegs. This paper emphasizes dollar denomination of short-term and long-term...
Eric Hillebrand, Gunther Schnabl
Exchange rate volatility, Foreign exchange intervention, Structural break, GARCH, Change points, Japan, C22, E58, F31, F33, G15, C32,
The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
China's financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving (trade) surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency....
Exchange Rate Regime and Wage Determination in Central and Eastern Europe
Gunther Schnabl, Christina Ziegler
After the eastern enlargement of the European Union due to increasing labor market integration, wage determination and monetary integration in Central and Eastern Europe have become key issues in...
China's financial conundrum and global imbalances
Ronald McKinnon, Gunther Schnabl
China's financial conundrum arises from two sources: (1) its large trade (saving) surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency....
Holger Zemanek, Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl
Low international competitiveness of a set of euro area countries, which have become evident by large current account deficits and rising risk premiums on government bonds, is one of the most...
Folgen der Finanzkrise für die globalen Wirtschaftsbeziehungen
Rolf Langhammer, Gunther Schnabl, Jürgen Matthes, K. Michael Finger, Andreas Freytag, Sebastian Voll
Holger Zemanek, Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl
Low international competitiveness of a set of euro area countries, which have become evident by large current account deficits and rising risk premiums on government bonds, is one of the most...
GLOBAL ASYMMETRIES IN MONETARY POLICY OPERATIONS: DEBTOR CENTRAL BANKS OF THE MENA REGION
GUNTHER SCHNABL, FRANZISKA SCHOBERT
We analyse the monetary policy operations of central banks in the Middle East and North Africa. We distinguish liquidity-providing central banks of large industrialized countries (creditor central...
Eurovisionen in Mittel- und Osteuropa im Zeichen der Finanzmärkte
Die jüngste Weltwirtschafts- und Finanzkrise hat die Gruppen der Euro-Skeptiker und Euro-Gegner nochmals kräftig durcheinander gewirbelt. Frühere strikte Euro-Gegner wie Dänemark und Island...
Hillebrand, Eric, Schnabl, Gunther, Ulu, Yasemin
We use realized volatility to study the influence of Japanese central bank interventions on the yen-to-dollar exchange rate. A system of equations for returns, logarithmic realized volatility, and...
Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia
Exchange rate volatility, Growth, Emerging Europe, East Asia, F31,
Real Convergence, Capital Flows, and Competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe
Ansgar Belke, Gunther Schnabl, Holger Zemanek
The paper scrutinizes the role of wages and capital flows for competitiveness in the new EU member states in the context of real convergence. For this purpose it extends the seminal Balassa-Samuelson...
A Vicious Cycle of Manias, Crashes and Asymmetric Policy Responses - An Overinvestment View
Hoffmann, Andreas, Schnabl, Gunther
The business cycles theories of Wicksell (1898), Schumpeter (1912), Mises (1912), Hayek (1929, 1935) and Minsky (1986, 1992) explain business cycles by distorted prices on capital markets, buoyant...