Abstract-A rational and popular viewpoint is that the function of scientific writing is to communicate knowledge. A study of prominent journals, however, suggests that clear communication is not...
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a (2009)
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Volume No, Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates (2009)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates (2009)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates (2009)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts (2009)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
Better forecasts of decisions in conflict situations, such as occur in business, politics, and war, can help protagonists achieve better outcomes. It is common advice to “stand in the other...
Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making (2009)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott, Soon, Willie
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and if so whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantively more accurate than those from the relevant...
Exploratory Analysis of Marketing Data: Trees vs. Regression (2008)
J. Scott Armstrong, James G. Andress
This article compares the predictive ability of models developed by two different statistical methods, tree analysis and regression analysis. Each was used in an exploratory study to develop a model...
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? (2008)
The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses. and includes commercial forecasting...
Benchmark forecasts for climate change (2008)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott, Soon, Willie
Climate is complex, uncertain, and, over horizons that are relevant for policy decisions, varies little. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we determined that for such a...
Benchmark Forecasts for Climate Change (2008)
Green, Kester C, Armstrong, J. Scott, Soon, Willie
We assessed three important criteria of forecastability--simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to many causal variables and their variable interactions. There is uncertainty...
Benchmark forecasts for climate change (2008)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J Scott, Soon, Willie
We assessed three important criteria of forecastability—simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to many causal variables and their variable interactions. There is uncertainty...
Book Review of Corporate Strategic Planning, (2008)
Noel Capon, John U. Farley, James M. Hulbert, J. Scott Armstrong
Corporate Strategic Planning (CSP) reports on an important study of planning practices and the value of those practices. Though it is a long book, nearly 500 pages, one can get almost the full...
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues (2008)
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Ability to Handle Issues (2008)
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces (2008)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Jones, Randall J., Wright, Malcolm
Prior research found that people’s assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would...
Predicting Elections from Politicians' Faces (2008)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C, Jones, Randall J, Wright, Malcolm
Prior research found that people's assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would provide...
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit (2008)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C, Soon, Willie
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports...
Checklist for Writing Management Reports (2008)
These guidelines refer to a management report written to gain acceptance for a recommended course of action. As you can see, it is no simple matter to write an effective report. The checklist...
J. Scott Armstrong, William B. Denniston, Matt M. Gordon
One hundred and fifty-one subjects were randomly divided into two groups of roughly equal size. One group was asked to respond to a decomposed version of a problem and the other group was presented...
J. Scott Armstrong, Shoil M. Greenberg
Boll weevil traps baited with a ComboLure (25 of mg grandlure + 30 mg of eugenol + 90 of mg dichlorvos [DDVP]), an extended-release lure (25 mg of grandlure + 30 mg of eugenol + 60 of mg DDVP...
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit (2007)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Soon, Willie
The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on...
that violated scientific guidelines. The Mitroff paper recommended an advocacy strategy for scientific research; it said that scientists should vigorously defend their initial hypothesis. I use the...
Presented at the Society for Marketing Advances Conference (2007)
First of all, I’d like to thank the Society for Marketing Advances. It is a great honor for me to receive the SMA/JAI Press Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000 and to share it with such eminent...
This Review is Reprinted With Permission From the (2007)
Journal Of Marketing, J. Scott Armstrong
(how should firms advertise), not descriptive (how they advertise). Rothenberg's account implies that the industry is out of touch with its clients' needs. The major problem is that some...
The Scenario Approach: Gaining Acceptance Of The Forecast (2007)
issues are described here: (1) prior commitment, (2) scenarios, and (3) presentation strategies. Prior Commitment Prior commitment should be used to gain acceptance of forecasts. This advice is...
this paper (Bell and Seater, 1987), a superstar was any faculty member who published an average of at least one paper per year in one of the top economic journals from 1970-74. Batra was the third...
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals (2007)
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong
this paper. References
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None...
Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds...
Forthcoming in the Journal of Marketing (2007)
How To Be, Anthony Pratkanis, Elliot Aronson, J. Scott Armstrong
lves. It seemed to me that the book contains an underlying propaganda message against individual freedoms. (In the interest of full disclosure, I have a libertarian bias.) I found 2 the authors'...
Forecasting Elections Using Expert Surveys: An Application to U. S. Presidential Elections (2007)
Jones, Randall J, Armstrong, J. Scott, Cuzán, Alfred G
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do....
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections (2007)
Jones, Randall J., Armstrong, J. Scott, Cuzan, Alfred G.
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do....
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
This paper examines the feasibility of rule-based forecasting, a procedure that applies forecasting expertise and domain knowledge to produce forecasts according to features of the data. We developed...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts (2007)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme,...
Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts (2007)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued...
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge? (2007)
Wright, Malcolm, Armstrong, J. Scott
The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions of relevant papers, incorrect references, and quotation errors that misreport...
Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to American Presidential Elections (2007)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Cúzan, Alfred G.
Lichtman (2005) reports that the Keys model has been able to pick the winner of every presidential election since 1860, retrospectively through 1980 and prospectively from 1984-2004. Given this...
The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2007)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106...
Statistical Significance Tests are Unnecessary Even When Properly Done (2007)
I briefly summarize prior research showing that tests of statistical significance are improperly used even in leading scholarly journals. Attempts to educate researchers to avoid pitfalls have had...
Review of Philip E. Tetlock, Expert political judgment: How good is it? How can we know? (2007)
Tschoegl, Adrian E, Armstrong, J. Scott
The book assaults common sense with evidence. In order to mount his assault on accepted wisdom, Tetlock spends some 238 pages of text explaining his methods and findings, and considering and refuting...
Replication Research in Marketing Revisited: A Note on a Disturbing Trend (2007)
Evanschitzky, Heiner, Baumgarth, Carsten, Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Over the past decade, researchers have expressed concerns over what seemed to be a paucity of replications. In line with this, editorial policies of some leading marketing journals have been modified...
Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting (2007)
Based on a summary of prior literature, I conclude that tests of statistical significance harm scientific progress. Efforts to find exceptions to this conclusion have, to date, turned up none. Even...
The three commentators on my paper agree that statistical tests are often improperly used by researchers and that even when properly used, readers misinterpret them. These points have been well...
"Why we don't really know what statistical significance means: Implications for educators" (2006)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Raymond Hubbard is the Thomas M. Sheehan Distinguished Professor of Marketing in the College of Business and Public Administration at Drake University. He can be contacted at:...
How to Make Better Forecasts and Decisions: Avoid Face-to-face Meetings (2006)
When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the successes and failures of markets (an example of a "crowd") and to understand why the average opinion of...
Why We Don't Really Know What "Statistical Significance" Means: A Major Educational Failure (2006)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
The Neyman-Pearson theory of hypothesis testing, with the Type I error rate, α, as the significance level, is widely regarded as statistical testing orthodoxy. Fisher's model of significance...
Making progress in forecasting (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert
Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established "to bridge the gap between theory and practice." Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the...
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: methods for reducing forecast error (2006)
Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions. Based on this evidence, I summarize the progress made over the past...
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...
Making Progress in Forecasting (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert
Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now...
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...
How Practitioners Can Use Evidence-based Forecasting: Reply to Commentaries (2006)
The commentaries reinforce my belief that research evidence alone is not sufficient for organizations to consider new methods. I suggest procedures to facilitate the implementation of evidence-based...
Making Progress in Forecasting (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert
Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now...
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...
Making Progress in Forecasting (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert
Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now...
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2006)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts? (2005)
Green, Kesten, Armstrong, J. Scott
Iraq continues to be in the news and confronts us with important questions about the predictability of decisions people make in conflict situations. For some, the plan to invade Iraq was based on...
The forecasting canon: nine generalizations to improve forecast accuracy (2005)
Preview: Using findings from empirically-based comparisons, Scott develops nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. He finds that these are often ignored by organizations, so that...
Decomposition by Causal Forces: A Procedure for Forecasting Complex Time Series (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred, Yokum, J. Thomas
Causal forces are a way of summarizing forecasters' expectations about what will happen to a time series in the future. Contrary to the common assumption for extrapolation, time series are not always...
Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...
Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...
ISSN 1440-771X Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2005)
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Ijbcomp Obj. Doc
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...
File: StatSigIJF26 Significance Tests Harm Progress in Forecasting (2005)
I summarize prior literature that concludes that tests of statistical significance harm scientific progress. Efforts to find exceptions to this conclusion have, to date, turned up none. Even when...
Findings from evidence-based forecasting: Methods for reducing forecast error (2005)
Empirical comparisons of reasonable approaches provide evidence on the best forecasting procedures to use under given conditions. Base on this evidence, I summarize the progress made over the past...
Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...
Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2005)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C.
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...
Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...
Structured analogies in forecasting (2004)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott
When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how...
Damped Seasonality Factors: Introduction (2004)
Previous research has shown that seasonal factors provide one of the most important ways to improve forecast accuracy. For example, in forecasts over an 18-month horizon for 68 monthly economic...
Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)
Green, Kesten, Armstrong, J. Scott
When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...
Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...
Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...
Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...
Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...
Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...
Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...
Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Pagell, Ruth
It is often claimed that managers do not read serious research papers in journals. If true, this neglect would seem to pose a problem because journals are the dominant source of knowledge in...
Review of Ray Fair, Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things (2003)
Ray Fair is one of my favorite econometricians. He has an excellent website, fairmodel.econ.yale.edu,where he freely shares his models. He writes clearly and his methods are reported in detail. He is...
Discovery and communication of important marketing findings: evidence and proposals (2003)
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and...
This second edition of the Age of Propaganda is excellent. (Should I explicitly tell you my conclusion?) I will use a two-sided argument to try to convince you to read this book. (Is a two-sided...
The Value of Surprising Findings for Research on Marketing (2003)
In the work of Armstrong (Journal of Business Research, 2002), I examined empirical research on the scientific process and related these to marketing science. The findings of some studies were...
Incentives for Developing and Communicating Principles: A Reply (2003)
The commentators raised many interesting ideas in response to Armstrong and Pagell (2003), from which one general theme emerges: The commentators claim that management science lacks the incentives to...
Assessing Game Theory, Role Playing, and Unaided Judgment (2002)
Green's study [Int. J. Forecasting (forthcoming)] on the accuracy of forecasting methods for conflicts does well against traditional scientific criteria. Moreover, it is useful, as it examines actual...
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals (2002)
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and...
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals (2002)
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and...
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals (2002)
My review of empirical research on scientific publication led to the following conclusions. Three criteria are useful for identifying whether findings are important: replication, validity, and...
Assessing game theory, role playing, and unaided judgement (2002)
Green's (2002) study on the accuracy of forecasting methods for conflicts does well against traditional scientific criteria. Moreover, it is useful, as it examines actual problems by comparing...
Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals (2002)
I conducted a review of empirical research on scientific publication. This led to three criteria for identifying whether findings are important: replicability, validity, and usefulness. A fourth...
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces (2001)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend...
To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal...
Hypotheses in marketing science: literature review and publication audit (2001)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J, Parsons, Andrew G
We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that...
Automatic Identification of Time-Series Features for Rule-based Forecasting (2001)
Adya, Monica, Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott, Kennedy, Miles
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) is an expert system that uses features of time series to select and weight extrapolation techniques. Thus, it is dependent upon the identification of features of the time...
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit (2001)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J., Parsons, Andrew G.
We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that...
Should We Redesign Forecasting Competitions? (2001)
The M3-Competition continues to improve the design of forecasting competitions: It examines more series than any previous competition, improves error analyses and includes commercial forecasting...
Standards and Practices for Forecasting (2001)
One hundred and thirty-nine principles are used to summarize knowledge about forecasting. They cover formulating a problem, obtaining information about it, selecting and applying methods, evaluating...
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit (2001)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J., Parsons, Andrew G.
We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that...
Hypotheses in Marketing Science: Literature Review and Publication Audit (2001)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J., Parsons, Andrew G.
We examined three approaches to research in marketing: exploratory hypotheses, dominant hypothesis, and competing hypotheses. Our review of empirical studies on scientific methodology suggests that...
An Application of Rule-based Forecasting to a Situation Lacking Domain Knowledge (2000)
Adya, Monica, Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott, Kennedy, Miles
Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was...
Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions (2000)
Role playing can be used to forecast decisions, such as "how will our competitors respond if we lower our prices?" In using role playing, the administrator asks people to play roles and...
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong, Vicki G. Morwitz, V. Kumar
Purchase intentions are routinely used to forecast sales of existing products and services. While past studies have shown that intentions are predictive of sales, they have only examined the absolute...
ABSTRACT Extrapolation for Time-Series and Cross-Sectional Data (2000)
Extrapolation methods are reliable, objective, inexpensive, quick, and easily automated. As a result, they are widely used, especially for inventory and production forecasts, for operational planning...
Introduction to Paper and Commentaries on the Delphi Technique (1999)
Rowe and Wright's paper "The Delphi Technique as a Forecasting Tool" was initially reviewed by four experts in the area of judgmental forecasting. Following three rounds of revisions, the paper was...
Forecasting for environmental decision making (1999)
Those making environmental decisions must not only characterize the present, they must also forecast the future. They must do so for at least two reasons. First, if a no-action alternative is...
Forecasting for Marketing (1999)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide...
Readability and Prestige in Scientific Journals (1999)
Hartley, Trueman and Meadows [3] contribute useful evidence on whether scientists can gain prestige by writing in a manner that is difficult to read. This has been called the bafflegab theory by...
Principles of Marketing (1999)
J. Scott Armstrong, Roderick J. Brodie
Research on forecasting is extensive and includes many studies that have tested alternative methods in order to determine which ones are most effective. We review this evidence in order to provide...
Are student ratings of instruction useful? (1998)
Despite the lead article's title, "Validity Concerns and Usefulness of Student Ratings of Instruction" (Greenwald, November 1997) in the American Psychologist 's special section on teacher ratings,...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
Management Science: What Does It Have to Do with Management or Science? (1998)
This paper is an edited version of the College of Business Studies Silver Jubilee Commemoration lecture, given as part of celebrations recognizing 25 years of teaching and research in the Faculty of...
Commentary on "Generalizing About Univariate Forecasting Methods" (1998)
Fildes, Hibon, Makridakis and Meade (1998), which will be referred to as FHMM, extends two important published papers. The idea of taking findings from each study and testing them against the data...
ratings, the papers did not provide direct evidence on “usefulness. ” There is no evidence that the use of teacher ratings improves learning in the long run. The papers do not show that the...
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
We consider how judgment and statistical methods should be integrated for time-series forecasting. Our review of published empirical research identified 47 studies, all but four published since 1985....
Armstrong, J. Scott, Clark, Terry
In this book, Brandenburger and Nalebuff use game theory to develop a set of guidelines that will "make it easier to explain the reasoning behind a proposed strategy." The games that they use as...
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation (1997)
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen...
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation (1997)
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen...
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation (1997)
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen...
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation (1997)
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen...
Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and. . . (1997)
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
to maximize shareholder wealth. However, managers often do not explicitly pursue the maximization of profits (Mueller 1992). Instead, they frequently make decisions so as to perform well relative to...
Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation (1997)
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy, Willam M. Epstein, Richard H. Franke, Raymond Hubbard, ...
I reviewed the published empirical evidence concerning journal peer review, which consisted of 68 papers, all but three published since 1975. Peer review improves quality, but its use to screen...
Review of Randall Rothenberg, Where the Suckers Moon: An Advertising Story (1996)
Rothenberg's book is a delight to read, and it provides a singular opportunity to compare what the agencies delivered in the Subaru proposals with what clients should expect. On the negative side,...
Management folklore sometimes leads to unprofitable decision making. Thus, studies of the value of such folklore should be of interest to managers, especially when they identify unprofitable...
Publication of Research on Controversial Topics: The Early Acceptance Procedure (1996)
Research with the potential to produce controversial findings is important to progress in the sciences. But scientific innovators often meet with resistance from the scientific community. Much...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
We examine how competitor-oriented objectives and the availability of competitor oriented information can affect managerial decisions and the profitability of firms. Using a variety of evidence...
Management folklore and management science: On portfolio planning, escalation bias and such (1996)
J. Scott Armstrong, Richard H. Franke
Management folklore sometimes leads to unprofitable decision making. Thus, studies of the value of such folklore should be of interest to managers, especially when they identify unprofitable...
Beyond Accuracy: Comparison of Criteria Used to Select Forecasting Methods (1995)
Yokum, J. Thomas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Two studies were conducted to examine expert opinions of criteria used to select forecasting techniques. In Study One, while "accuracy" was a dominant criterion, the ratings of five of thirteen...
Quality Control versus Innovation in Research on Marketing (1995)
Brownlie and Saren (this issue) claim that "few innovative papers appear in the top marketing journals." They attribute this problem to incentive structures. They ask what steps might be taken by the...
The devil's advocate responds to an MBA student's claim that research harms learning (1995)
Book review of Snapshots from hell by Peter Robinson. Published by Warner Books (New York), 1994.
On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods (1995)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert
Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment(GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based...
On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons among Forecasting Methods (1995)
J. Scott Armstrong, Robert Fildes
Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based...
Judgmental Decomposition: When Does It Work? (1994)
MacGregor, Donald G, Armstrong, J. Scott
We hypothesized that multiplicative decomposition would improve accuracy only in certain conditions. In particular, we expected it to help for problems involving extreme and uncertain values. We...
Review of Scott Plous, The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making (1994)
Where can one find basic marketing principles? Up to now, my favorite source has been Influence(Cialdini 1984, 1993). In The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, Plous (rhymes with house) adds...
The profitability of winning (1994)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
Introduction: Sports and war metaphors abound in business today. For example, one management book, Thunder in the Sky, by Thomas Cleary, opens with a Chinese saying that translates: "The marketplace...
Collopy, Fred, Adya, Monica, Armstrong, J. Scott
Research over two decades has advanced the knowledge of how to assess predictive validity. We believe this has value to information systems (IS) researchers. To demonstrate, we used a widely cited...
The Fertile Field of Meta-analysis: Cumulative Progress in Agricultural Forecasting (1994)
A substantial effort has been devoted to agricultural forecasting over the past half century. Allen's quantitative review provides a powerful way to examine that research. The quantitative review (or...
Replications and Extensions in Marketing: Rarely Published but Quite Contrary (1994)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none were replications. Only 1.8% of the papers were extensions, and they consumed 1.1% of the journal...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Yokum, J. Thomas
Members of professional groups were much more likely to respond to a mail survey than nonmembers who were also experts in the area (43.7% versus 13.7%). A one-dollar (U.S.)prepaid monetary incentive...
Business school prestige -- research versus teaching (1994)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Sperry, Tad
We examined the relationships between the research originating at business schools, students' satisfaction with the schools, and the published ratings of the school's prestige. Research was...
Effects of portfolio planning methods on decision making: experimental results (1994)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J
Subjects (n = 1015) working individually in the role of managers were asked to choose between investment opportunities that would either double their investment or cause the loss of half of it. Six...
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary (1994)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none were replications. Only 1.8% of the papers were extensions, and they consumed 1.1% of the journal...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J
Wensley (1994) makes three key points. First, it is worthwhile to conduct empirical studies of the value of management techniques. Second, managers probably misuse portfolio methods. Third, the...
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary (1994)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none were replications. Only 1.8% of the papers were extensions, and they consumed 1.1% of the journal...
Replications and Extensions in Marketing – Rarely Published But Quite Contrary (1994)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Replication is rare in marketing. Of 1,120 papers sampled from three major marketing journals, none were replications. Only 1.8% of the papers were extensions, and they consumed 1.1% of the journal...
Book Review of The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making By Scott Plous (1994)
J. Scott Armstrong, Scott Plous
nd Milgram's obedience studies receive only brief mention. The material is oriented in an experiential way, beginning with a reader survey containing 39 problems. These are problems drawn from...
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
Opinion polling procedures allow for reasonable inferences about attitude changes. We examined this contention using surveys about the nomination of Clarence Thomas. In this situation, prior theory...
Principles involving marketing policies: an empirical assessment (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Schultz, Randall L
We examined nine marketing textbooks, published since 1927, to see if they contained useful marketing principles. Four doctoral students found 566 normative statements about pricing, product, place,...
Escalation bias: does it extend to marketing? (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Coviello, Nicole, Safranek, Barbara
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on...
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time Series Extrapolation (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select...
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Coviello, Nicole, Safranek, Barbara
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on...
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Coviello, Nicole, Safranek, Barbara
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on...
Escalation Bias: Does It Extend to Marketing? (1993)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Coviello, Nicole, Safranek, Barbara
Escalation bias implies that managers favor reinvestments in projects that are doing poorly over those doing well. We tested this implication in a marketing context by conducting experiments on...
Principles Involving Marketing Policies: An Empirical Assessment (1993)
Scott Armstrong The, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall L. Schultz
We examined nine marketing textbooks, published since 1927, to see if they contained useful marketing principles. Four doctoral students found 566 normative statements about pricing, product, place,...
Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Time-series Extrapolation (1993)
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
This paper examines a strategy for structuring one type of domain knowledge for use in extrapolation. It does so by representing information about causality and using this domain knowledge to select...
Expert Opinions About Extrapolation and the Mystery of the Overlooked Discontinuities (1992)
Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott
We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for...
Editorial Policies for the Publication of Controversial Findings (1992)
Armstrong and Hubbard (1991), in a survey of editors of 20 psychology journals, found a bias against the publication of papers with controversial findings. The 16 editors who responded said that they...
Error Measures for Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons (1992)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred
This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct...
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? (1992)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely reject the null hypothesis. This problem may also exist in major marketing journals. Of 692 papers...
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? (1992)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely reject the null hypothesis. This problem may also exist in major marketing journals. Of 692 papers...
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? (1992)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely reject the null hypothesis. This problem may also exist in major marketing journals. Of 692 papers...
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? (1992)
Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely reject the null hypothesis. This problem may also exist in major marketing journals. Of 692 papers...
Are Null Results Becoming an Endangered Species in Marketing? (1992)
Raymond Hubbard, J. Scott Armstrong
Editorial procedures in the social and biomedical sciences are said to promote studies that falsely reject the null hypothesis. This problem may also exist in major marketing journals. Of 692 papers...
Error Measures For Generalizing About Forecasting Methods: Empirical Comparisons (1992)
J. Scott Armstrong, Fred Collopy
: This study evaluated measures for making comparisons of errors across time series. We analyzed 90 annual and 101 quarterly economic time series. We judged error measures on reliability, construct...
Expert Opinions About Extrapolation And The Mystery Of The Overlooked Discontinuities (1992)
Fred Collopy, J. Scott Armstrong, The Weatherhead School, J. Scott, Armstrong The, Wharton School
: We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices (1991)
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices (1991)
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices (1991)
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices (1991)
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical...
Strategic Planning Improves Manufacturing Performance (1991)
A quantitative critique of 28 studies concludes that formal planning is valuable for firms. The results were particularly favorable for manufacturing firms: nine studies found formal planning to be...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Hubbard, Raymond
As Cicchetti indicates, agreement among reviewers is not high. This conclusion is empirically supported by Fiske and Fogg (1990), who reported that two independent reviews of the same papers...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Hubbard, Raymond
As Cicchetti indicates, agreement among reviewers is not high. This conclusion is empirically supported by Fiske and Fogg (1990), who reported that two independent reviews of the same papers...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Hubbard, Raymond
As Cicchetti indicates, agreement among reviewers is not high. This conclusion is empirically supported by Fiske and Fogg (1990), who reported that two independent reviews of the same papers...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Hubbard, Raymond
As Cicchetti indicates, agreement among reviewers is not high. This conclusion is empirically supported by Fiske and Fogg (1990), who reported that two independent reviews of the same papers...
Review of Paul Bloomberg, The Predatory Society: Deception in the American Marketplace (1990)
Jaworski, Bernard J, Armstrong, J. Scott
The Predatory Society examines the inadequacies of marketing and the free market system. It is written by a sociologist. I think that, in general, sociologists are biased against marketing people....
Review of Noel Capon, John U. Farley and James M. Hulbert, Corporate Strategic Planning (1990)
Jaworski, Bernard J, Armstrong, J. Scott
Corporate Strategic Planning (CSP) reports on an important study of planning practices and the value of those practices. Though it is a long book, nearly 500 pages, one can get almost the full...
In contrast to the conclusions from traditional reviews, meta-analysis shows that certain types of postage have an important effect on return rates to mail surveys. In particular, US business reply...
Review of Peter W. Huber, Liability: The Legal Revolution and Its Consequences (1990)
Jaworski, Bernard J, Armstrong, J. Scott
Legal costs are now a major factor for U.S. firms to consider when marketing products and services. For example, they represent 95% of the price of childhood vaccines. Product liability is so...
The Predatory Society, J. Scott Armstrong
ology students over the period from 1972 to 1987 to write essays about incidents involving dishonesty that they encountered during jobs they had previously held or in which they were currently...
Noel Capon, John U. Farley, James M. Hulbert, J. Scott Armstrong
system, it would be interesting to examine measures of performance for the total system. Seeing how the various stakeholders (e.g., customers, creditors, employees, community) are affected would be...
Toward computer-aided forecasting systems: gathering, coding, and validating the knowledge (1989)
Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott
Direct assessment and protocol analysis were used to examine the processes that experts employ to make forecasts. The sessions with the experts yielded rules about when various extrapolation methods...
Predicting Job Performance: A Comparison of Expert Opinion and Research Findings (1989)
Dakin, Stephen, Armstrong, J. Scott
A survey was conducted of New Zealand personnel consultants. Their beliefs about the validity of various selection tools and their claimed usage of these tools was then compared with the validities...
Predicting the Outcome of Marketing Negotiations: Role-Playing versus Unaided Opinions (1989)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Hutcherson, Philip D
Role-playing and unaided opinions were used to forecast the outcome of three negotiations. Consistent with prior research, role-playing yielded more accurate predictions. In two studies on marketing...
Review of Alfie Kohn, No Contest: The Case Against Competition (1988)
Kohn's No Contest reviews empirical research on competition. In fact, much work has been done to determine whether competition is better than cooperation and some work has compared competition with...
Communication of Research on Forecasting: The Journal (1988)
It seems trivial to point out that one of the major goals of the International Institute of Forecasters is to communicate research findings. In particular, the IIF tries to foster communication among...
Research Needs in Forecasting (1988)
The demand for research on forecasting is strong. This conclusion is based on the high number of citations to papers published about research on forecasting, and upon the number of subscriptions for...
Review of Ravi Batra, The Great Depression of 1990 (1988)
The Great Depression of 1990 was on the New York Times best-seller list for non-fiction in the summer of 1987. It follows a standard formula for best sellers in forecasting: Forecast a great...
Forecasting Methods for Marketing: Review of Empirical Research (1988)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Brodie, Roderick J, McIntyre, Shelby H
This paper reviews the empirical research on forecasting in marketing. In addition, it presents results from some small scale surveys. We offer a framework for discussing forecasts in the area of...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Rosenstone, Steven J.
Peer Reviewed
cal and theoretical support, why is it so widely accepted? Perhaps, as Kohn suggests in No Contest, the reason is that the competitive model is so widespread in our society. We judge ourselves in...
Forecasting methods for conflict situations (1987)
In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands,...
Return postage in mail surveys: a meta analysis (1987)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Lusk, Edward J
This paper describes a five-step procedure for meta-analysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it...
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations (1987)
In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands,...
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations (1987)
In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands,...
Forecasting Methods for Conflict Situations (1987)
In 1975, a consortium sponsored by the Argentine government tried to purchase the stock of the Britishowned Falkland Islands Company, a monopoly that owned 43 percent of the land in the Falklands,...
RETURN POSTAGE IN MAIL SURVEYS A META-ANALYSIS (1987)
ARMSTRONG, J. SCOTT, LUSK, EDWARD J.
This paper describes a five-step procedure for metaanalysis. Especially important was the contacting of authors of prior papers. This was done primarily to improve the accuracy of the coding; it also...
The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: reply (1986)
In Armstrong (1982a), I examined alternative explanations to the empirical findings that supported the use of formal planning. In considering the possibility that researcher bias might lead to such...
The Ombudsman: Research on Forecasting: A Quarter-Century Review, 1960-1984 (1986)
Before 1960, little empirical research was done on forecasting methods. Since then, the literature has grown rapidly, especially in the area of judgmental forecasting. This research supports and adds...
Publishing Standards for Research on Forecasting (editorial) (1986)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Dagum, Estella Bee, Fildes, Robert, Makridakis, Spyros
When we first began publication of the International Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that were used by other journals and also examined the research on scientific publishing. Our...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Reibstein, David J
What evidence exists on the value of formal planning for strategic decision-making in marketing? This paper reviews the evidence. This includes two tests of face validity. First, we use the market...
On Calculating the Value of Improved Forecast Accuracy (1985)
Cost of capital G. Tax rate Using the framework provided below, I attempted to use reasonable estimates in order to obtain a rule of thumb on the value of accuracy to the firm. This rule suggested...
Forecasting by Extrapolation: Conclusions from Twenty-five Years of Research (1984)
Sophisticated extrapolation techniques have had a negligible payoff for accuracy in forecasting. As a result, major changes are proposed for the allocation of the funds for future research on...
This book provides a convenient collection of important papers relevant to a subset of judgmental forecasting. My review discusses:(i) the scope of the readings (ii) the importance of the readings...
Relative Accuracy of Judgmental and Extrapolative Methods in Forecasting Annual Earnings (1983)
This paper identifies and analyzes previously published studies on annual earnings forecasts. Comparisons of forecasts produced by management, analysts, and extrapolative techniques indicated that:...
The Importance of Objectivity and Falsification in Management Science (1983)
In general, I thought that the Boal and Willis "Note on the Armstrong/Mitroff Debate" provided an interesting and fair discussion. The summary of the consequences of the subjective versus objective...
The Ombudsman: Cheating in Management Science (1983)
Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity about cases involving cheating, including cases of falsification of data and plagiarism, raises...
Review of Allen Tough, Intentional Changes: A Fresh Approach to Helping People Change (1983)
Intentional Changes is an important book. It suggests different approaches to the way in which we try to implement change. It provides, as do most important books, much that you will disagree with....
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A simple approach to this is the time contract. Time contracts have been used successfully in nine...
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) (1983)
Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity about cases involving cheating, including cases of falsification of data and plagiarism, raises...
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A simple approach to this is the time contract. Time contracts have been used successfully in nine...
Armstrong, J. Scott, Lusk, Edward J
In 1982, the Journal of Forecasting published the results of a forecasting competition organized by Spyros Makridakis (Makridakis et al., 1982). In this, the ex ante forecast errors of 21 methods...
Strategic Planning and Forecasting Fundamentals (1983)
Individuals and organizations have operated for hundreds of years by planning and forecasting in an intuitive manner. It was not until the 1950s that formal approaches became popular. Since then,...
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) (1983)
Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity about cases involving cheating, including cases of falsification of data and plagiarism, raises...
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A simple approach to this is the time contract. Time contracts have been used successfully in nine...
Cheating in Management Science (with Comments by M. K. Starr and M. J. Mahoney) (1983)
Honesty is vital to scientific work and, clearly, most scientists are honest. However, recent publicity about cases involving cheating, including cases of falsification of data and plagiarism, raises...
Formal education can be improved by transferring responsibility from the teacher to the learner. A simple approach to this is the time contract. Time contracts have been used successfully in nine...
Strategic planning and forecasting fundamentals (1983)
Individuals and organizations have operated for hundreds of years by planning and forecasting in an intuitive manner. It was not until the 1950s that formal approaches became popular. Since then,...
Strategic Planning And Forecasting Fundamentals (1983)
this paper was provided by IMEDE in Lausanne, Switzerland. From Kenneth Albert, The Strategic Management Handbook, New York: McGraw Hill, 1983. 2 amount. Is it possible that formal planning and...
Strategies for implementing change: an experiential approach (1982)
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people use to implement important changes in organizations. This typical strategy, suggested or used by over...
Is Review by Peers as Fair as it Appears? (1982)
Recent research shows that journal reviewing practices are neither objective nor fair. I propose a procedure to increase the likelihood of publishing important papers. This will be tested by...
The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: review of empirical research (1982)
A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is, use an explicit approach for setting objectives, generating strategies, evaluating...
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula (1982)
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an “author’s formula,” a set of rules that authors can use to...
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author's Formula (1982)
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an "author's formula," a set of rules that authors can use to...
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula (1982)
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an “author’s formula,” a set of rules that authors can use to...
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula (1982)
Recently I completed a review of the empirical research on scientific journals (Armstrong 1982). This review provided evidence for an “author’s formula,” a set of rules that authors can use to...
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach (1982)
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people use to implement important changes in organizations. This typical strategy, suggested or used by over...
Carbone, Robert, Armstrong, J. Scott
There exists a large number of quantitative extrapolative forecasting methods which may be applied in research work or implemented in an organizational setting. For instance, the lead article of this...
Research on Scientific Journals: Implications for Editors and Authors (1982)
A review of editorial policies of leading journals and of research relevant to scientific journals revealed conflicts between 'science' and 'scientists.' Owing to these conflicts, papers are often...
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach (1982)
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people use to implement important changes in organizations. This typical strategy, suggested or used by over...
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach (1982)
An attitude survey and a role-playing case were used to identify the typical approaches people use to implement important changes in organizations. This typical strategy, suggested or used by over...
The value of formal planning for strategic decisions: Review of empirical research (1982)
A review of research from organizational behavior supported the guidelines by corporate planners: that is, use an explicit approach for setting objectives, generating strategies, evaluating...
Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach (1982)
this article focuses on an experiential approach to strategies for change. It begins with a short exercise for the reader. (This approach could be easily extended to a classroom situation). Following...
Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author's Formula (1982)
This paper was originally submitted as having been from the University of North Dakota. 3 (In a convenience sample I conducted at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, eight out of...
Advocacy as a Scientific Strategy: The Mitroff Myth (1980)
A committee created a fictitious author, Ian Mitroff, who published a paper that violated scientific guidelines. The Mitroff paper recommended an advocacy strategy for scientific research; it said...
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting (1980)
People are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us how the economy will change, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various...
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting (1980)
People are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us how the economy will change, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various...
The Seer-Sucker Theory: The Value of Experts in Forecasting (1980)
People are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us how the economy will change, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various...
The seer-sucker theory: the value of experts in forecasting (1980)
People are willing to pay heavily for expert advice. Economists are consulted to tell us how the economy will change, stock analysts are paid large salaries to forecast the earnings of various...
"If you can't convince them, confuse them." Simply put, this is the advice that J. Scott Armstrong, a marketing professor at the Wharton School, coolly gives his fellow academics these days. It is...
Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige (1980)
Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the prestige of 10 management...
Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige (1980)
Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the prestige of 10 management...
Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige (1980)
Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the prestige of 10 management...
Unintelligible Management Research and Academic Prestige (1980)
Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the prestige of 10 management...
Unintelligible management research and academic prestige (1980)
ABSTRACT. Modest support was found for the "Dr. Fox Phenomenon": Management scientists gain prestige by unintelligible writing. A positive correlation (+0.7) was found between the...
Advocacy and Objectivity in Science (1979)
Three strategies for scientific research in management are examined: advocacy, induction, and multiple hypotheses. Advocacy of a single dominant hypothesis is efficient, but biased. Induction is not...
The natural learning project (1979)
In "natural learning" the learner takes responsibility for learning. This responsibility applies to setting objectives, selecting active learning tasks, obtaining feedback, and making applications....
The Natural Learning Project (1979)
This paper suggests that the success of experiential exercises depends upon the overall learning environment. Little benefit is expected if experiential exercises are adopted within the traditional...
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore Versus Fact (1978)
Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more...
Econometric Forecasting and the Science Court (1978)
This paper examines the additional evidence produced by the seven scientists on each of the issues.The issues were: (1) "Should econometricians use the method of multiple hypotheses rather than...
The manager's dilemma: role conflict in marketing (1978)
Introduction: Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor, Clarence Saunders, Harry Tosdal, Roland Vaile: Who are these people? They...
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact (1978)
Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more...
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing (1978)
Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor, Clarence Saunders, Harry Tosdal, Roland Vaile: Who are these people? They are great men...
Graffiti is regarded by many as a blight on our cities because it contributes to visual pollution. City governments spend vast sums in an effort to clean the ubiquitous graffiti from urban walls. I...
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact (1978)
Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more...
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing (1978)
Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor, Clarence Saunders, Harry Tosdal, Roland Vaile: Who are these people? They are great men...
Forecasting with Econometric Methods: Folklore versus Fact (1978)
Evidence from social psychology suggests that econometricians will avoid evidence that disconfirms their beliefs. Two beliefs of econometricians were examined: (1) Econometric methods provide more...
The Manager’s Dilemma: Role Conflict in Marketing (1978)
Norris Brisco, Melvin Copeland, Henry Erdman, Benjamin Hibbard, George Hotchkiss, Leverett Lyon, Stanley Resor, Clarence Saunders, Harry Tosdal, Roland Vaile: Who are these people? They are great men...
Social irresponsibility in management (1977)
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None...
Social Irresponsibility in Management (1977)
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None...
Social Irresponsibility in Management (1977)
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None...
Social Irresponsibility in Management (1977)
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None...
Estimating nonresponse bias in mail surveys (1977)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Overton, Terry S
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the...
Designing and using experiential exercises (1977)
Introduction: Experiential learning refers to learning which uses the learner's experience as a base. This definition implies an active and personal approach to learning. A more operational...
Designing and Using Experiential Exercises (1977)
Experiential learning refers to learning which uses the learner's experience as a base. This definition implies an active and personal approach to learning. A more operational definition is provided...
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys (1977)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Overton, Terry S.
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the...
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys (1977)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Overton, Terry S.
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the...
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys (1977)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Overton, Terry S.
Valid predictions for the direction of nonresponse bias were obtained from subjective estimates and extrapolations in an analysis of mail survey data from published studies. For estimates of the...
Social Irresponsibility in Management (1977)
Previously published research suggested that the typical manager may be expected to harm others in his role as a manager. Further support for this was drawn from the Panalba role-playing case. None...
Estimating Nonresponse Bias in Mail Surveys (1977)
Scott Armstrong And, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry S. Overton
This article examines methods for estimating nonresponse bias. Predictions of the direction of nonresponse bias are evaluated, and estimates are made of the magnitude of this bias. An attempt was...
The Panalba Role-Playing Case (1976)
The Panalba-Role Playing Case was designed to get participants to examine their behavior in a situation where their role can lead them to act in a socially irresponsible manner. A description of the...
The Use of the Decomposition Principle in Making Judgments (1975)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Denniston, William B, Gordon, Matt M
One hundred and fifty-one subjects were randomly divided into two groups of roughly equal size. One group was asked to respond to a decomposed version of a problem and the other group was presented...
Tom Swift and his electric regression analysis machine: 1973 (1975)
Presents the "1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse."
Monetary incentives in mail surveys (1975)
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these...
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys (1975)
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these...
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys (1975)
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these...
Monetary Incentives in Mail Surveys (1975)
Eighteen empirical studies from fourteen different researchers provide evidence that prepaid monetary incentives have a strong positive impact on the response rate in mail surveys. One of these...
Analyzing Quantitative Models (1974)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Shapiro, Alan C
This article presents a framework for the evaluation of quantitative models. The framework is both simple and realistic and could be used profitably by most organizations. It incorporates not only...
A Comparative Study of Methods for Long-Range Market Forecasting (1972)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Grohman, Michael C
The following hypotheses about long-range market forecasting were examined: Hl Objective methods provide more accuracy than do subjective methods. H2 The relative advantage of objective over...
Brief vs. comprehensive descriptions in measuring intentions to purchase (1971)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Overton, Terry
Introduction: In forecasting demand for expensive consumer goods, direct questioning of potential consumers about their future purchasing plans has had considerable predictive success [1, 2, 4]. Any...
Exploratory analysis of marketing data: trees vs. regression (1970)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Andress, James G
This article compares the predictive ability of models developed by two different statistical methods, tree analysis and regression analysis. Each was used in an exploratory study to develop a model...
Brand Trial After a Credibility Change (1970)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Montgomery, David B
In most frequently purchased, branded product markets, the consumer has little to choose from in terms of significantly differentiated products. The staggering array of manufacturers' claims and...
How to avoid exploratory research (1970)
Introduction: Studies in marketing research often start with data rather than with a theory. This exploratory or inductive approach is at odds with the more preferred scientific method where the...
An application of econometric models to international marketing (1970)
Introduction: With more and more firms contemplating expansion in the international market, the question of how a firm estimates its sales potential in a given country takes on increasing importance....
An Application of Econometric Models to International Marketing (1970)
This article considers the various ways in which firms might estimate market size by country, with particular consideration given to the use of econometric models. The article aims at three related...
Brief vs. Comprehensive Descriptions in Measuring Intentions to Purchase (1970)
Scott Armstrong And, J. Scott Armstrong, Terry Overton
This paper presents a study of the effect upon intention to purchase of this seemingly crucial element---the extent and type of description of the new service. How extensive must the description of...
A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice (1969)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Farley, John U
Ehrenberg's sweeping criticism of Markov brand switching models [3] highlights many shortcomings of these models for aggregate analysis of consumer behavior. While it has been pointed out that some...
A Note on the Use of Markov Chains in Forecasting Store Choice (1969)
J. Scott Armstrong, John U. Farley
s the data shown above as the fraction of purchases of a given brand going to all brands (including itself) at the next purchase. Brand Purchased At Trial t + 1 A B C Brand purchased at trial t A B C...
On the interpretation of factor analysis (1968)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Soelberg, Peer
The importance of the researcher's interpretation of factor analysis is illustrated by means of an example. The results from this example appear to be meaningful and easily interpreted. The example...
Problems in the use of factor analysis for deriving theory are illustrated by means of an example in which the underlying factors are known. The actual underlying model is simple and it provides a...
Structured analogies for forecasting
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how...
Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...
Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods
J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green
We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...
Structured analogies for forecasting
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how...
Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...
Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme,...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...
Forecasting elections using expert surveys: an application to U.S. presidential elections
Jones, Randall J., Armstrong, J. Scott, Cuzan, Alfred G.
Prior research offers a mixed view of the value of expert surveys for long-term election forecasts. On the positive side, experts have more information about the candidates and issues than voters do....
Automatic identification of time series features for rule-based forecasting
Adya, Monica, Collopy, Fred, Armstrong, J. Scott, Kennedy, Miles
An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge
Adya, Monica, Armstrong, J. Scott, Collopy, Fred, Kennedy, Miles
Replication research's disturbing trend
Evanschitzky, Heiner, Baumgarth, Carsten, Hubbard, Raymond, Armstrong, J. Scott
The Forecasting Canon: Nine Generalizations to Improve Forecast Accuracy
Using findings from empirical-based comparisons, the author presents nine generalizations that can improve forecast accuracy. These are often ignored by organizations, so that attention to them...
Alfred Cuzan, J. Scott Armstrong
No one came closer to predicting the outcome of the 2004 U. S. presidential election than the team at politicalforecasting.com, also called pollyvote.com. They tell us how they did it and whether...
The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?
Kesten C. Green, J. Scott Armstrong
The authors report the results of several forecasting experiments they conducted with university students and experts, producing some amazing results. Copyright International Institute of...
The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2008
J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred Cuzan
Scott and Alfred describe Allan Lichtman's Keys Model as an example of an index method of forecasting, which assigns ratings of favorable, unfavorable, or indeterminate to influencing variables. They...
Should the Forecasting Process Eliminate Face-to-Face Meetings?
When financial columnist James Surowiecki wrote The Wisdom of Crowds, he wished to explain the successes and failures of markets (an example of a "crowd") and to understand why the average opinion of...
Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared
Kesten Green, J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe
The Delphi technique is better than traditional group meetings for forecasting and has some advantages over another promising alternative to meetings, prediction markets. In this article, Kesten,...
Identification of Asymmetric Prediction Intervals through Causal Forces.
Armstrong, J Scott, Collopy, Fred
When causal forces are specified, the expected direction of the trend can be compared with the trend based on extrapolation. Series in which the expected trend conflicts with the extrapolated trend...
Forecasting Elections from Voters’ Perceptions of Candidates’ Positions on Issues and Policies
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott
Ideally, presidential elections should be decided based on how the candidates would handle issues facing the country. If so, knowledge about the voters’ perception of the candidates should help to...
Predicting elections from politicians’ faces
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Jones, Randall J., Wright, Malcolm
Prior research found that people’s assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would...
Prediction of Consumer Behavior by Experts and Novices.
Are those who are familiar with scientific research on consumer behavior better able to make predictions about phenomena in this field? Predictions were made for 105 hypotheses from 20 empirical...
Verification of Citations: Fawlty Towers of Knowledge?
Wright, Malcolm, Armstrong, J. Scott
The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions of relevant papers, incorrect references, and quotation errors that misreport...
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Soon, Willie
The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on...
Benchmark forecasts for climate change
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J Scott, Soon, Willie
Climate is complex, uncertain, and, over horizons that are relevant for policy decisions, varies little. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we determined that for such a...
Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The Pollyvote
Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Alfred G. Cuzán
At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and...
Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts
Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott
Better forecasts of decisions in conflict situations, such as occur in business, politics, and war, can help protagonists achieve better outcomes. It is common advice to “stand in the other...
Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates
Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas
Using the index method, we developed the PollyBio model to predict election outcomes. The model, based on 49 cues about candidates’ biographies, was used to predict the outcome of the 28 U.S....