Addressing the Leakage/Competitiveness Issue in Climate Change Policy Proposals (2009)
Brookings Trade Forum - 2008/2009
“The World Trading System and Implications of External Opening” (2008)
The paper begins by pointing out that external opening, which here means reductions in barriers to international trade, still has a long way to go. It reviews the evidence on the economic benefits...
Experience of and Lessons from (2008)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel
2004, vol. 2, 91-138. It was written in consultation with Takatoshi Ito and Yung Chul Park, coordinators of the core study on exchange rate arrangements at the Regional Economic Monitoring Unit of...
Forthcoming in Globalization: What’s New, (2008)
edited by Michael Weinstein (Council on Foreign Relations) Fears that globalization necessarily hurts the environment are not well-founded. A survey reveals little statistical evidence, on average...
The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency (2008)
Chinn, Menzie D., Frankel, Jeffrey A.
The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the dollar rose to challenge the pound 70 years ago. The authors find that the euro may...
THE ASIAN MODEL, THE MIRACLE, THE CRISIS AND THE FUND Delivered at: (2007)
Until recently, there were essentially two schools of thought regarding East Asian economic success. Under the first school, the Asian miracle illustrated the virtues of the capitalist system....
“Efficiency ” as the Achievement of Objectives (2007)
Arvind Subramanian, Dan Tarullo, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel
The case of the Environment
Harvard University and NBER and (2007)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler, World Bank
This paper uses data on country funds to study the role of differential access to information in international investment. It shows that past changes in Net Asset Values (NAVs) and discounts predict...
Gerard Caprio, William Hunter, George Kaufman, Danny Lepziger, The World Bank, Jeffrey A. Frankel, ...
anking and finance. It is constructive to consider how and why views have changed since then. Capitalism is broad enough to encompass competing models, including 2 competing models of financial...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Eduardo Fajnzylber, Sergio L. Schmukler, Luis Servén
Credibility and transparency are at the core of the current debate on exchange rate regimes. Among the reasons why intermediate regimes have fallen out of favor, a possibly important one is that they...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler, Maurice Obstfeld, Thomas Rothenberg, Jeffrey A Frankel
Summer Institute for helpful comments and suggestions. We also thank Charles Kramer
This paper was written for a colloquium on International
would like to thank Shang-Jin Wei for extremely efficient research assistance. The paper reaches seven conclusions regarding the Yen Bloc that Japan is reputed to be forming in East Asia and the...
Comment on Caballero, ‘Structural Volatility in Latin America’ (2007)
I applaud the approach of this paper. It does not suffer the common habit of some finance experts writing on the subject of volatility, who, unable to explain why market prices go up or down, are...
Revised 6/12/92 6/24/92 (2007)
The Obstacles To, Jeffrey A. Frankel
The paper reviews the recent history of international macroeconomic policy coordination, including examples of three sorts of obstacles to successful coordination: the difficulties of, respectively,...
APEC and Regional Trading Arrangements in the Pacific (2007)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Senior Fellow, Shang-jin Wei, Shang-jin Wei, Ernesto Stein, Ernesto Stein
This paper was written for a conference on Pacific Trade and Investment: Options for the 90's, Toronto, June 6-8, 1994. The conference was sponsored by the John Deutsch Institute of Queen's...
words, + tables June 24, 1995+ The Integration of Secondary Equity Markets in Europe, (2007)
And The Barriers, Jeffrey A. Frankel
this paper appears at the end.. File with Tables is available on request. This paper appears as Chapter 10 ["Exchange Rates and the Single Currency"], in The European Equity Markets: The...
HOW WELL DO FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS FUNCTION: (2007)
Figures for 1995 estimate trading by dealers in the foreign exchange market at over $1,200 billion per day, most of it with other dealers. Some have linked this volume to concerns of excessive...
On the SDR: Reserve Currencies and the Future (2007)
Barry Eichengreen Jeffrey, Jeffrey A. Frankel
this paper is whether the future of the international monetary system will provide such a justification
The New Regionalism, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-jin Wei
This paper was written for the Conference on the Emerging Global Trading Environment and Developing Asia, to be held at the Asian Development Bank, Manila, May 2931, 1995
Is Poland the next Spain? (2006)
Caselli, Francesco, Tenreyro, Silvana, Frankel, Jeffrey A., Clarida, Richard H.
Is Poland the next Spain? (2006)
Caselli, Francesco, Tenreyro, Silvana, Frankel, Jeffrey A., Clarida, Richard H.
Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar As Leading International Reserve Currency? (2006)
Chinn, Menzie David, Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Might the dollar eventually follow the precedent of the pound and cede its status as leading international reserve currency? Unlike the last time this question was prominently discussed, ten years...
Comments and Discussion (2005)
Eichengreen, Barry J., Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity - 2005, 1
Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency? (2005)
Chinn, Menzie David, Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Might the dollar eventually follow the precedent of the pound and cede its status as leading international reserve currency? Unlike ten years ago, there now exists a credible competitor: the euro....
Contractionary Currency Crashes In Developing Countries The 5 th Mundell-Fleming Lecture (2005)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel
To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which is...
Comments and Discussion (2004)
Durlauf, Steven N., Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity - 2003, 2
Is Slovakia the Next Portugal? A Comment on “Is Poland the Next Spain?” (2004)
Silvana Tenreyo, Jeffrey A. Frankel
In this title, Poland stands for all the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that are joining the European Union, and Spain stands for countries in Southern Europe that joined in the 1970s and...
Using Gravity to Establish Causality (2004)
Eduardo A. Cavallo, Jeffrey A. Frankel, John F. Kennedy
Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that...
The Euro Area and World Interest Rates (2003)
Chinn, Menzie, Frankel, Jeffrey A.
We analyze the behavior of world interest rates, focusing on the ramifications of European Monetary Union. Our analysis indicates that nominal US interest rates tend to drive European rates at both...
The Euro Area and World Interest Rates (2003)
Chinn, Menzie David, Frankel, Jeffrey A.
We analyze the behavior of world interest rates, focusing on the ramifications of European Monetary Union. Our analysis indicates that nominal US interest rates tend to drive European rates at both...
Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality (2003)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country’s environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of...
American Economic Policy in the 1990s (2002)
Frankel, Jeffrey A. (ed.), Orszag, Peter R. (ed.)
0-5854-4277-0
given to the source. Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality (2002)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose, Edward Parson, Rob Stavins, M. Scott Taylor, Geoffrey Williamson, ...
International Economics seminars, all three at Harvard. Frankel would also like to acknowledge support from the Savitz Family Fund for Environmental and Natural Resource Policy. The views expressed...
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria.
Economía - Volume 1, Number 2, Spring 2001
given to the source. The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises (2001)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Nouriel Roubini, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Nouriel Roubini, Jeffrey Frankel, Nouriel Roubini
The authors both served in the US Administration during the late 1990s. They wish to thank Ronald
Verifiability and the Vanishing Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime (2000)
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Schmukler, Sergio L., Serven, Luis.
Brookings Trade Forum - 2000
Andrea Bubula, Tatiana Didier, Eduardo Fajnzylber, Changqing Sun, Nong Thaicharoen, Hairong Yu, ...
We are grateful to Michael Melvin, Jorge Streb, three anonymous referees, and participants at the Universidad T. Di Tella-World Bank conference on currency regimes for very useful comments. We thank
Country funds and asymmetric information (2000)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler, Neil Ericsson, Charlie Kramer, Mico Loretan, Rich Lyons, ...
This paper uses data on country funds to study the role of differential access to information in international investment. It shows that past changes in Net Asset Values (NAVs) and discounts predict...
An Estimate of the Effects of Currency Unions on Trade and Growth (2000)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, A.K. Rose, Jeffrey Frankel, Andrew Rose
Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade as much or more than do free trade areas. Thus currencies are a source of the puzzling home-country bias in...
Menzie D. Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Edited David Dickinson, William Allen (routledge, New York
This paper works with a comprehensive set of survey data, on forecasts for 24 currencies (against the dollar), thus going beyond the traditional G-7 countries to consider smaller and less developed...
“Efficiency ” as the Achievement of Objectives (2000)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Arvind Subramanian, Dan Tarullo, Jeffrey A. Frankel
The case of the Environment
World Trade and Payments : An Introduction (1999)
Caves, Richard E., Frankel, Jeffrey A., Jones, Ronald W.
Contenido: El modelo básico de comercio internacional. Patrones de comercio, distribución del ingreso y crecimiento. La teoría y la práctica de la política comercial. Dinero, ingreso y la...
World Trade and Payments : An Introduction / R. E. Caves, J.A. Frankel, R.W. Jones. (1999)
Caves, Richard E., Frankel, Jeffrey A., Jones, Ronald W.
Contenido: El modelo básico de comercio internacional. Patrones de comercio, distribución del ingreso y crecimiento. La teoría y la práctica de la política comercial. Dinero, ingreso y la...
No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or at All Times (1999)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel
JEL No. F3 This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general...
Crisis, Contagion, and Country Funds: Effects on East Asia and Latin America (1998)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler
Spillover effects, from one country or region to other countries and regions, have attracted renewed attention in the aftermath of the Mexican crisis of December 1994. This paper uses data on...
The Asian Model, The Miracle, The Crisis And The Fund (1998)
e suggests that a large current account deficit or high level of debt are not highly significant predictors of crises. More important than the magnitude of the current account deficit is how it is...
Asian Economics in Perspective (1998)
minated debt. There was a mis-match between the banks' liabilities (short-term foreign-currency borrowing) and their assets (with much of the money going to speculative real estate deals). This...
Country Funds and Asymmetric Information (1997)
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Schmukler, Sergio L.
Closed-end country funds trade in New York at their price. Their Net Asset Value (NAV) represent the value of the underlying assets, usually traded in each particular country. If the holders of the...
Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?, European Economic Review 41 (1997)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose, Andrew K. Rose
Yes. A country’s suitability for EMU entry depends on the intensity of trade with EMU members, and the extent to which its business cycles are correlated with those of other members. But both...
Dec. 23, 1994 + revised May 31,1995 + (1996)
Sterilization Expectations And, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Chudozie Okongwu
The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to...
Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect (1996)
Jeffrey A Frankel, David Romer, Teresa Cyrus, Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer
D. C., where Frankel was a Senior Fellow when much of this paper was written; the Export-Import
Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates (1995)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory...
Recent Changes in the Financial Systems of Asian and Pacific Countries (1994)
Senior Fellow, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, I. Securitization, Ii. Money Markets, Bond Markets
This paper was written for the Sixth International Conference of the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, on the theme Financial Stability in a Changing Environment, held in...
Can Regional Blocs be Stepping Stones to Global Free Trade (1994)
Shanc-jin Wei, Jeffrey A. Frankel
With a new wave of regional blocs, there is a heightened worry that they may impede the process of global free trade. This paper demonstrates, contrary to the pessimistic views, regional blocs may...
Caves, Richard E, Frankel, Jeffrey A
Incluye índice
Foreign Exchange Policy, Monetary Policy and Capital Market Liberalization in Korea (1993)
America. [Some of this paper may be cut for the final published version.] Some parts of this paper draw on parts of another paper titled "Liberalization of Korea's Foreign Exchange...
Quantifying International Capital Mobility In The 1980s (1992)
this paper was published in National Saving and Economic Performance, D. Bernheim and J. Shoven, eds., University of Chicago Press: Chicago, for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1991. (A...
The Evolving Japanese Financial System, and the Cost of Capital (1992)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sponsored The
The paper surveys the extensive literature on whether Japanese corporations in the 1980s were able to finance investment more easily than Americans. Along the way, it considers: the leverage of...
International Nominal Targeting (int): A Proposal For Coordination In The 1990s (1990)
nge rates, as Ronald McKinnon shows us. Nevertheless, the monetarist view that in fact dominated was the anti-coordination one that came from Milton Friedman: each country chose its own independent...
Findings of forward discount bias interpreted in light of exchange rate survey data (1987)
Froot, Kenneth., Frankel, Jeffrey A.
June 1987
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
This study reviews broadly the experience of the last decade on crisis prevention and management. It seeks to draw greater attention to policy decisions that are made during the phase when capital...
Empirical research on nominal exchange rates
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Rose, Andrew K., G. M. Grossman, K. Rogoff
The Japanese Cost of Finance: A Survey
The extensive literature on whether the cost of capital is low in Japan is surveyed in this paper. Along the way, it considers: the leverage of Japanese firms, dividend payout, equity price/earnings...
Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, David C. Parsley, Shang-Jin Wei
Developing countries traditionally exhibit passthrough of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income countries, but have experienced a rapid downward trend in recent years...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Eduardo A. Cavallo
Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflow, currency crashes, or severe recessions. Some believe that...
Commodity Prices, Overshooting, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Gikas A. Hardouvelis
The general price level does not provide a sensitive indicator of whether monetary policy is tight or loose, because mostprices are sticky. Interest rates are free to move, but they are an ambiguous...
Are Asset Demand Functions Determined by CAPM?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, William T. Dickens
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPH) says that the responsiveness of asset-demands to expected returns depends (inversely) on the variance-covariance matrix of returns, rather than being an...
A Relationship Between Regression Tests and Volatility Tests of Market ncy
Jeffrey A. Frankel, James H. Stock
Volatility tests are an alternative to regression tests for evaluating the joint null hypothesis of market efficiency and risk neutrality. Acomparison of the power of the two kinds of tests depends...
The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy
Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Michael P. Dooley, Donald Mathieson
The finding of Feldstein and Horioka (1980) that countriesf investment rates are highly correlated with their national saving rates has by now been confirmed by many subsequent studies, even though...
International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policy-Makers Disa gree on the Model
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Katharine Rockett
The existing literature on international macroeconomic policy coordination makes the unrealistic assumption that policy-makers all know the true model, from which it follows in general that the Nash...
Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium
The optimal-diversification model of investors' portfolio behavior can give a linear relationship between the exchange risk premium and the conditional exchange rate variance. This note surveys...
The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives
Rudiger Dornbusch, Jeffrey A. Frankel
We review ten aspects of how floating exchange rates have worked in practice, contrasted with ten characteristics that the system was supposed to have in theory. We conclude that the foreign exchange...
This paper makes use of the simulation results of 12 leading large international econometric models, as to the effects of commonly specified changes in monetary and fiscal policy, conducted under the...
Conditional Mean-Variance Efficiency of the U.S. Stock Market
Charles Engel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot, Anthony P. Rodrigues
We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in...
Quantifying International Capital Mobility in the 1980s
The Feldstein-Horioka finding, that national saving and investment have been highly correlated in the past, has not been primarily due to econometric problems such as endogenous fiscal policy; it has...
Obstacles to Coordination, and a Consideration of Two Proposals to Overcome Them
The paper reviews the obstacles to successful international macroeconomic policy coordination, and then offers a proposal for coordination that is designed to have the best chance of overcoming these...
Five sets of questions puzzle observers of Japanese financial markets, particularly from the U.S. viewpoint. They concern: the apparently low corporate cost of capital, low real interest rates, high...
Assessing China’s Exchange Rate Regime
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Wei, Shang-Jin
This paper examines two related issues: (a) the implicit methodology used by the U.S. Treasury in determining whether China and its other trading partners manipulate their exchange rates, and (b) the...
Conventional wisdom in the field of international finance holds that the U.S. economy has become so open financiallly as to be characterized by perfect capital mobility: a highly elastic supply of...
The Dollar as an Irrational Speculative Bubble: A Tale of Fundamentalisists
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot
Several recent developments have inspired us to consider a non-standard model of the dollar as a speculative bubble without the constraint of fully rational expectations: (1) the dollar continued to...
Do Asset-Demand Functions Optimize over the Mean and Variance of Real Returns? A Six-Currency Test
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Charles Engel
International asset demands are functions of expected returns.Optimal portfolio theory tells us that the coefficients in this relationship depend on the variance-covariance matrix of real returns.But...
The Implications of Mean-Variance Optimization for Four Questions in International Macroeconomics
The hypothesis that investors optimize with respect to the mean and variance of their end-of-period wealth has powerful implications for some standard questions of interest to international...
Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot
Survey data provide a measure of exchange rate expectations that is superior to the commonly-used forward exchange rate in the respect that it does notinclude a risk premium. We use survey data and...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Alan T. MacArthur
Different approaches to quantifying the degree of capital mobility for a cross-section of currencies -- particularly saving-investment correlations and tests of real interest parity - have appeared...
Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate: Evidence from Survey Data
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot
Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1)...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Chudozie Okongwu
The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to...
Who drives real interest rates around the Pacific Rim: the US or Japan?
Menzie D. Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel
This paper investigates the relative influence of US and Japanese real interest rates in the determination of local Pacific Rim rates, where influence is defined by the presence of common stochastic...
Assessing China's exchange rate regime
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
"The IMF Articles of Agreement forbid a country from manipulating its currency for unfair advantage. The US Treasury has been legally required since 1988 to report to Congress biannually regarding...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer
Examining the correlation between trade and income cannot identify the direction of causation between the two. Countries' geographic characteristics, however, have important effects on trade and are...
International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model.
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Rockett, Katharine E
The authors relax the assumption of the literature on international coordination that policymakers know the true model. T wo countries will still be able to agree on a cooperative policy pack age...
Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations.
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Froot, Kenneth A
Survey data provide a new measure of exchange-rate expectations superior to the forward rate in that no risk premium interferes. The authors test standard propositions using three sources of survey...
International capital mobility and exchange rate volatility
Capital movements ; Foreign exchange rates ; Econometric models
International nominal targeting: a proposal for policy coordination
Foreign exchange rates
Crowding out (Economics) ; Capital movements ; Financial markets
Country funds and asymmetric information
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Schmukler, Sergio L.
Using data on country funds, the authors study how differential access to information affects international investment. They find that past changes in net asset values (NAVs) and discounts predict...
The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria.
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Rose, Andrew K
A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency...
Verifying exchange rate regimes
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Fajnzylber, Eduardo, Schmukler, Sergio L., Serven, Luis
Country Funds and Asymmetric Information.
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Schmukler, Sergio L
This paper uses data on country funds to study the role of differential access to information on international investment. It shows that past changes in net asset values (NAVs) and discounts predict...
Tests of conditional mean-variance efficiency of the U.S. stock market
Engel, Charles, Frankel, Jeffrey A., Froot, Kenneth A., Rodrigues, Anthony P.
Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs
Shang-Jin Wei, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Continental trade blocs are emerging in many parts of the world almost in tandem. If trade blocs are required to satisfy the McMillan criterion of not lowering their trade volume with outside...
Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies.
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Chinn, Menzie D
Survey data on a broad cross section of 17 currencies are used to determine whether the forward discount moves primarily in response to changes in expectations of depreciation, or in the risk...
A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Rose, Andrew K
Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean-reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years. The...
Country Funds and Asymmetric Information
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler
Closed-end country funds trade in New York at their price. Their Net Asset Value (NAV) represent the value of the underlying assets, usually traded in each particular country. If the holders of the...
Is there a Currency Bloc in the Pacific?
Jeffrey A Frankel, Adrian Blundell-Wignall
Pacific currency bloc; gravity model; intra-regional trade
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Okongwu, Chudozie
This paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-94. The goal is to discover why interest rates remained high, failing to converge to US...
The cost of capital in Japan: a survey
Capital ; Japan ; Financial leverage ; Corporations - Finance ; Saving and investment - Japan
Is Japan creating a yen block in East Asia and the Pacific?
Japan ; Yen, Japanese ; International trade ; Foreign exchange rates
Liberalization of Korea's foreign exchange markets
Foreign exchange ; Korea ; International trade
Yen bloc or dollar bloc: exchange rate policies of the East Asian economies
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
East Asia ; Pacific Area ; Yen, Japanese ; Dollar, American ; Foreign exchange - Law and legislation
Monetary regime choices for a semi-open country
East Asia ; Pacific Area ; Foreign exchange - Law and legislation ; Monetary policy
Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Menzie D. Chinn
Interest rates ; Foreign exchange rates ; Pacific Area ; International finance
APEC and other regional economic arrangements in the Pacific
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei, Ernesto Stein
Pacific Area ; Asia ; Regional economics ; International economic relations ; Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Organization) ; International trade - Pacific Basin ; International trade
Trade and growth in East Asian countries: cause and effect?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer, Teresa Cyrus
Estimates of growth equations have found a role for openness, particularly in explaining rapid growth among East Asian countries. But major concerns of simultaneous causality between growth and trade...
The new regionalism and Asia: impact and options
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
New regional initiatives abound, both outside Asia and within. Free Trade Areas in the West - notably NAFTA, its possible enlargement into an FTA of the Americas, and the European Union - have...
Estimation of portfolio-balance functions that are mean-variance optimizing: the mark and the dollar
Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: evidence from survey data
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot
Foreign exchange rates ; Japan ; Dollar, American ; Rational expectations (Economic theory)
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler
It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the "front-runners" in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own...
Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange...
International nominal targeting (INT): a proposal for overcoming obstacles to policy coordination
Monetary policy ; Gross national product
Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992
Menzie David Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Pacific Area ; Interest rates ; Foreign exchange rates - Pacific Basin
Financial links around the Pacific Rim, 1982-1992
Menzie D. Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Pacific Area ; Interest rates ; Foreign exchange rates - Pacific Basin
Crisis, contagion, and country funds: effects on East Asia and Latin America
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler
East Asia ; Latin America
Conditional mean-variance efficiency of the U.S. stock market
Charles Engel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot, Anthony Rodrigues
Stock market ; Time-series analysis
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Cara S. Lown
Inflation (Finance) ; Interest rates ; Forecasting
Economic Structure and the Decision to Adopt a Common Currency
Frankel, Jeffrey A., Rose, Andrew K.
Everyone studying EMU cites the theory of Optimum Currency Areas: whether a country like Sweden should join the currency union depends on such parameters as the extent of Swedish trade with other EU...
Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Rose, Andrew K
We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971–92 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange rate that...
The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Rose, Andrew K
A country’s suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity or trade with other potential members of the currency...
An Estimate of the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Rose, Andrew K
Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency...
Recent Exchange Rate Experience and Proposals for Reform.
The paper reviews the grounds for fears that foreign exchange markets are not behaving as well as they should: recent misalignments and crises, and seven sets of academic findings. (1) Exchange rate...
Frankel, Jeffrey A, Lown, Cara S
The term-structure slope contains information about expected future inflation. Frederic Mishkin shows that the spread between the twelve-month and three-month interest rate helps predict the...
Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?
Froot, Kenneth A, Frankel, Jeffrey A
A common finding is that the forward discount is a biased predictor of future exchange-rate changes. The authors use survey data on exchange-rate expectations to decompose the bias into portions...
Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
We seek to contribute to the debate over globalization and the environment by asking: What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? We take specific account of the...
Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs
Shang-Jin Wei, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Continental trade blocs are emerging in many parts of the world almost in tandem. If trade blocs are required to satisfy the McMillan criterion of not lowering their trade volume with outside...
Sterilization of Money Inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?
Capital inflows , Capital controls , Exchange rates , Capital flows , Economic models ,
Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
Trade , Economic models ,
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
The paper offers a new approach to estimate de facto exchange rate regimes, a synthesis of two techniques. One is a technique that the authors have used in the past to estimate implicit de facto...
Sterilization of money inflows: Difficult (Calvo) or Easy (Reisen)?
Some countries undergoing exchange-rate-based stabilization and financial liberalization in Latin America and elsewhere have faced large capital inflows since 1991. Many have tried to sterilize the...
Why Money Announcements Move Interest Rates: An Answer from the Foreign Exchange Market
Charles Engel, Jeffrey A. Frankel
On a Friday that the Fed announces a money supply greater than had been anticipated, interest rates move up in response. Why? One explanation is that the market perceives the fluctuation in the...
A Test of Portfolio Crowding-Out and Related Issues in Finance
This paper tests hypotheses regarding the parameters in investors'asset demand functions. Most important is the hypothesis that federal bonds are closer substitutes for equity than for money; it is...
Are Exchange Rates Excessively Variable?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Richard Meese
"Unnecessary variation" is defined as variation not attributable to variation in fundamentals. In the absence of a good model of macroeconomic fundamentals, the question "are exchange rates...
International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies
This paper, written for the NBER Conference on the Changing Role of the United States in the World Economy, covers the capital account in the U.S. balance of payments. It first traces the history...
Interpreting Tests of Forward Discount Bias Using Survey Data on Exchange Rate Expectations
Kenneth A. Froot, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Survey data on exchange rate expectations are used to divide the forward discount into expected depreciation and a risk premium. Our starting point is the common test oh whether the forward discount...
Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination
Coordination of macroeconomic policies among countries is not as straightforward in practice as it appears in theory. This paper discusses three obstacles to successful international coordination:...
Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth Froot
The paper presents new empirical results that elucidate the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half of the paper is an updated study of the exchange rate expectations held by market...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Cara S. Lown
It is often suggested that the slope of the term structure of interest rates contains information about the expected future path of inflation. Mishkin (1990) has recently shown that the spread...
Are Option-Implied Forecasts of Exchange Rate Volatility Excessively Variable?
Shang-Jin Wei, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Market participants' forecasts of future exchange rate volatility can be recovered from option contracts on foreign currencies. Such implicit volatility forecasts for four currencies are used to test...
Charles Engel, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Kenneth A. Froot, Anthony P. Rodrigues
We apply the method of constrained asset share estimation (CASE) to test the mean-variance efficiency (MVE) of the stock market. This method allows conditional expected returns to vary in relatively...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
Using the gravity model to examine bilateral trade patterns throughout the world. we find clear evidence of trading blocs in Europe. the Western Hemisphere, East Asia and the Pacific. In Europe, it...
Continental Trading Blocs: Are They Natural, or Super-Natural?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Ernesto Stein, Shang-Jin Wei
Using the gravity model, we find evidence of three continental trading blocs: the Americas, Europe and Pacific Asia. Intra-regional trade exceeds what can be explained by the proximity of a pair of...
The Making of Exchange Rate Policy in the 1980s
This paper, written for an NBER conference on "American Economic Policy in the 1980s," discusses the dollar from the standpoint, not of what moved the exchange rate or what policies might have been...
A Survey of Empirical Research on Nominal Exchange Rates
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
We survey the empirical literature on floating nominal exchange rates over the past decade. Exchange rates are difficult to forecast at short- to medium-term horizons. There is a bit of explanatory...
The Internationalization of Equity Markets
This introduction to a forthcoming NBER volume on 'The Internationalization of Equity Markets' argues that the existing finance literature has in some respects not kept pace with world trends. Most...
A Panel Project on Purchasing Power Parity: Mean Reversion Within and Between Countries
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean- reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years....
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Chudozie Okongwu
The paper examines interest rates in nine Latin American and East Asian countries during the period 1987-1994. The goal is to discover why interest rates have remained high, failing to converge to...
Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in East Asia and the Pacific?
This paper reaches seven conclusions regarding the Yen Bloc that Japan is reputed to be forming in Pacific Asia. (1) Gravity-model estimates of bilateral trade show that the level of trade in East...
Open Regionalism in a World of Continental Trade Blocs
Shang-Jin Wei, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Continental trade blocs are emerging in many parts of the world almost in tandem. If trade blocs are required to satisfy the McMillan criterion of not lowering their trade volume with outside...
How Well do Foreign Exchange Markets Function: Might a Tobin Tax Help?
Figures for 1995 estimate trading by dealers in the foreign exchange market at over $1,200 billion per day, most of it with other dealers. Some have linked this volume to concerns of excessive...
Regional Trading Arrangement: Natural or Super-Natural?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Ernesto Stein, Shang-Jin Wei
This paper summarizes recent research by the authors on the effects of free trade areas (FTAs). Within our model, which emphasizes inter-continental transport costs, several conclusions arise. (1)...
Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: Empirical Indicators
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
We use a panel of annual data for over one hundred developing countries from 1971 through 1992 to characterize currency crashes. We define a currency crash as a large change of the nominal exchange...
Trade and Growth: An Empirical Investigation
Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer
Countries' geographic characteristics have important effects on their trade, and are plausibly uncorrelated with other determinants of their incomes. This paper therefore constructs measures of the...
The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
A country's suitability for entry into a currency union depends on a number of economic conditions. These include, inter alia, the intensity of trade with other potential members of the currency...
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler
It has been suggested that Mexican investors were the front-runners in the peso crisis of December 1994, turning pessimistic before international investors. Different expectations about their own...
Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?
Jeffrey A. Frankel, David Romer, Teresa Cyrus
Estimates of growth equations have found a role for openness, particularly in explaining rapid growth among East Asian countries. But major concerns of simultaneous causality between growth and trade...
No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times
This essay considers some prescriptions that are currently popular regarding exchange rate regimes: a general movement toward floating, a general movement toward fixing, or a general movement toward...
Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
Gravity-based cross-sectional evidence indicates that currency unions stimulate trade; cross-sectional evidence indicates that trade stimulates output. This paper estimates the effect that currency...
Globalization of trade and finance has gone a long way over the last half-century. But it is less impressive than most non-economists think, judged either by the standard of 100 years ago or by the...
The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Nouriel Roubini
This paper considers policies of the industrialized countries, as they pertain to crises in emerging markets. These fall into three areas: (1) their own macroeconomic policies, which determine the...
Global Transmission of Interest Rates: Monetary Independence and Currency Regime
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Sergio L. Schmukler, Luis Serven
Using a large sample of developing and industrialized economies during 1970-1999, this paper explores whether the choice of exchange rate regime affects the sensitivity of local interest rates to...
Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Andrew K. Rose
What is the effect of trade on a country's environment, for a given level of GDP? Some have observed an apparent positive correlation between openness to trade and measures of environmental quality....
Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies
The paper reviews recent trends in thinking on exchange rate regimes. It begins by classifying countries into regimes, noting the distinction between de facto and de jure regimes, but also noting the...
The Environment and Globalization
Fears that globalization necessarily hurts the environment are not well-founded. A survey reveals little statistical evidence, on average across countries, that openness to international trade...
Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries
To update a famous old statistic: a political leader in a developing country is almost twice as likely to lose office in the 6 months following a currency crash as otherwise. This difference, which...
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices
Commodity prices are back. This paper looks at connections between monetary policy, and agricultural and mineral commodities. We begin with the monetary influences on commodity prices, first for a...
Assessing China's Exchange Rate Regime
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Shang-Jin Wei
This paper examines two related issues: (a) the implicit methodology used by the U.S. Treasury in determining whether China and America's other trading partners manipulate their exchange rates, and...
The Euro May Over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency
Menzie D. Chinn, Jeffrey A. Frankel
The euro has arisen as a credible eventual competitor to the dollar as leading international currency, much as the dollar rose to challenge the pound 70 years ago. This paper uses...
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Christopher A. Pissarides
The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and European economists to discuss a broad range of current issues in global macroeconomics. An international...
Andy Rose (2000), followed by many others, has used the gravity model of bilateral trade on a large data set to estimate the trade effects of monetary unions among small countries. The finding has...
Cavallo, Eduardo A., Frankel, Jeffrey A.
Openness to trade is one factor that has been identified as determining whether a country is prone to sudden stops in capital inflows. Several authors have offered empirical evidence that having a...
New Estimation of China’s Exchange Rate Regime
The paper updates the answer to the question: what precisely is the exchange rate regime that China has put into place since 2005, when it announced a move away from the dollar peg? Is it a basket...
The 1807?1809 Embargo Against Great Britain
The lack of success of the 1807 1809 Embargo by the United States has generally been attributed, first, to a lack of effective enforcement, and, second, to an inability to inflict greater economic...
These seventeen essays provide an accessible and thorough reference for understanding the role of exchange rates in the international monetary system since 1973, when the rates were allowed to float....
NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004
Richard H. Clarida, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi, Kenneth D. West
The NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics brings together leading American and European economists to discuss a broad range of current issues in global macroeconomics. An international...
Financial Markets and Monetary Policy
The decade of the 1980s left many central bankers disillusioned with monetarism, so that the question of the optimal nominal anchor remains an open one. In this second collection of his writings on...
This paper analyzes a detailed plan to set quantitative national limits on emissions of greenhouse gases, following along the lines of the Kyoto Protocol. It is designed to fill in the most serious...
Front matter, table of contents, abstracts
Richard H. Clarida, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi, Kenneth D. West
International Capital Flows and Domestic Economic Policies
Jeffrey A. Frankel, Saburo Okita, Peter G. Peterson, James R. Schlesinger
Introduction to "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2004"
Richard H. Clarida, Jeffrey A. Frankel, Francesco Giavazzi, Kenneth D. West
Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?
By putting together a relatively large data set on bilateral remittances of emigrants, this paper is able to shed light on the important hypothesis of smoothing. The smoothing hypothesis is that...
Valentina Bosetti, Jeffrey A. Frankel
Many analysts have identified three important gaps in the Kyoto Protocol: the absence of emission targets extending far into the future, the absence of participation by the United States, China, and...