Joachim Winter

Structural Measurement Errors in Nonseparable Models (2009)

Hoderlein, Stefan, Winter, Joachim

This paper considers measurement error from a new perspective. In surveys, response errors are often caused by the fact that respondents recall past events and quantities imperfectly. We explore the...

Survey Evidence on Conditional Norm Enforcement (2009)

Traxler, Christian, Winter, Joachim

We discuss survey evidence on individuals' willingness to sanction norm violations - such as evading taxes, drunk driving, fare dodging, or skiving o work - by expressing disapproval or social...

Consumer-Directed Health Care: Can Consumers Look After Themselves? (2008)

McFadden, Daniel, Winter, Joachim, Heiss, Florian

In health care systems today, including those of Switzerland and the United States, participants do not necessarily see the big picture of lifetime health costs and quality of life, and in many...

Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices of Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans 1 (2008)

Florian Heiss, Daniel Mcfadden, Joachim Winter

Abstract: Medicare Part D provides prescription drug coverage through Medicare approved plans offered by private insurance companies and HMOs. In this paper, we study the role of current prescription...

Micro nance in Times of Crisis: The E ects of Competition, Rising Indebtedness, and Economic Crisis on Repayment Behaviour (2007)

Ulrike Vogelgesang, Martin Hellwig, Mark Schreiner, Christopher Ksoll, Joachim Winter

This paper analyzes repayment determinants for loans from Caja Los Andes, a Bolivian mi-crolender. The analysis focuses on the in uence of recent changes in the Bolivian micro nance market. In...

Aging and International Capital Flows 1 (2007)

Axel Boersch-supan, Axel Boersch-supan, Alexander Ludwig, Alexander Ludwig, Axel Börsch-supan, Er Ludwig, ...

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Bureau of

Time preference and heuristics in a price search experiment (2007)

Daniel Houser, Joachim Winter

The last half of the 20 th century saw the emergence of a large literature that documents apparently “irrational” behavior in economics and psychology experiments. This has led to criticisms of...

Preliminary and incomplete – comments welcome! TIME PREFERENCE AND HEURISTICS IN A PRICE SEARCH EXPERIMENT (2007)

Daniel Houser, Joachim Winter

Abstract: Structural econometric methods that assume agents have rational expectations are often criticized. Yet, little is known about the relative costs and benefits of adopting alternative...

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment (2007)

Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

Experimental studies of search behavior suggest that individuals stop searching earlier than predicted by the optimal, risk-neutral stopping rule. Such behavior could be generated by two different...

Trust Games Measure Trust (2006)

Houser, Daniel, Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

The relationship between trust and risk is a topic of enduring interest. Although there are substantial differences between the ideas the terms express, many researchers from different disciplines...

Household Savings in Germany (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Rodepeter, Ralf, Schnabel, Reinhold, Winter, Joachim

This paper describes how German households save, and how their saving behavior is linked to public policy, notably pension policy. Our analysis is based on a synthetic panel of four cross sections of...

The German Savings Puzzle (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Rodepeter, Ralf, Schnabel, Reinhold, Winter, Joachim

Germany has one of the most generous public pension and health insurance systems of the world, yet private savings are high until old age. Savings remain positive in old age, even for most low income...

Soziale Sicherungssysteme im globalen Wettbewerb (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Winter, Joachim

Drei Entwicklungen werden die Sozialpolitik des neuen Jahrhunderts in Deutschland prägen: die Alterung der Bevölkerung, die zunehmende Mobilität und Farbigkeit der Lebens- und Erwerbshistorien...

Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Heiß, Florian, Winter, Joachim

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform - that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized overlapping...

Aging and International Capital Flows (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within...

Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance (2005)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Köke, F. Jens, Winter, Joachim

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are...

How do behavioral assumptions affect structural inference? Evidence from a laboratory experiment (2004)

Winter, Joachim, Houser, Daniel

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference on a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces...

Aging, pension reform, and capital flows : a multi-country simulation model (2004)

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demographic change alters the...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar? (2004)

Berkel, Barbara, Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee - "Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben, brauchen...

The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets (2004)

Winter, Joachim

Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. Capital market effects of population aging are...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second, this...

Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys

Daniel McFadden, Albert Bemmaor, Francis Caro, Jeff Dominitz, Byung-Hill Jun, Arthur Lewbel, ...

Measures of households' past behavior, their expectations with respect to future events and contingencies, and their intentions with respect to future behavior are frequently collected using...

Item nonresponse to financial questions in household surveys: An experimental study of interviewer and mode effects

Lothar Essig, Joachim Winter

We analyze nonresponse to questions on financial items such as income and asset holdings in household surveys using data from a controlled field experiment. As part of the SAVE study, a...

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

The existing evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that relatively simple heuristics describe observed search behavior better than the optimal stopping rule derived under risk neutrality....

Item nonresponse to financial questions in household surveys: An experimental study of interviewer and mode effects

Essig, Lothar, Winter, Joachim

We analyze nonresponse to questions on financial items such as income and asset holdings in the SAVE survey, exploiting a controlled field experiment. As part of the SAVE study, a representative...

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From A Laboratory Experiment

Daniel Houser, Joachim Winter

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21 st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets

Joachim Winter

Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. Capital market effects of population aging are...

Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return

Florian Heiss, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differ-ential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demo-graphic change alters...

Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model

Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differ-ential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demo-graphic change alters...

Item nonresponse to financial questions in household surveys: An experimental study of interviewer and mode effects

Lothar Essig, Joachim Winter

We analyze nonresponse to questions on financial items such as income and asset holdings in household surveys using data from a controlled field experiment. As part of the SAVE study, a...

Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance

Axel Börsch-Supan, Jens Köke, Joachim Winter

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are...

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

Daniel Schunk, Joachim Winter

The existing evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that relatively simple heuristics describe observed search behavior better than the optimal stopping rule derived under risk neutrality....

Medicare prescription drug coverage: Consumer information and preferences

Winter, Joachim, Balza, Rowilma, Caro, Frank, Heiss, Florian, Jun, Byung-hill, Matzkin, Rosa, ...

We investigate prescription drug use, and information and enrollment intentions for the new Medicare Part D drug insurance program, using a sample of Medicare-eligible subjects surveyed before open...

Medicare prescription drug coverage: Consumer information and preferences

Winter, Joachim, Balza, Rowilma, Caro, Frank, Heiss, Florian, Jun, Byung-hill, Matzkin, Rosa, ...

We investigate prescription drug use, and information and enrollment intentions for the new Medicare Part D drug insurance program, using a sample of Medicare-eligible subjects surveyed before open...

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

Experimental studies of search behavior suggest that individuals stop searching earlier than predicted by the optimal, risk-neutral stopping rule. Such behavior could be generated by two different...

Trust Games Measure Trust

Daniel Houser, Daniel Schunk, Joachim Winter

The relationship between trust and risk is a topic of enduring interest. Although there are substantial differences between the ideas the terms express, many researchers from different disciplines...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21 st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Heiss, Florian, Winter, Joachim

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized...

"Household Savings in Germany,"

Ralf Rodepeter,, Reinhold Schnabel, Joachim Winter

This paper describes how German households save and how their saving behavior is linked to public policy, notably pension policy. The analysis is based on a synthetic panel of four cross sections of...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?*

Barbara Berkel, Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Can the aging problem be solved by a higher birth rate? While the popular notion -"if we have too many elderly we need more children in order to compensate for this"- seems plausible, the results of...

Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

AXEL BÖRSCH-SUPAN, ALEXANDER LUDWIG, JOACHIM WINTER

Population ageing and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a computational general equilibrium model. We feed...

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From A Laboratory Experiment

Daniel Houser, Joachim Winter

We use a laboratory experiment to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete choice decision problem. Our experimental design induces...

Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return

Florian Heiss, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform – that is, a shift towards more pre-funding – for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized...

Item nonresponse to financial questions in household surveys: An experimental study of interviewer and mode effects

Lothar Essig, Joachim Winter

We analyze nonresponse to questions on financial items such as income and asset holdings in household surveys using data from a controlled field experiment. As part of the SAVE study, a...

Pension reform, savings behavior and capital market performance

Axel Börsch-Supan, Jens Köke, Joachim Winter

This paper shows that the capital market effects of population aging and pension reform are particularly strong in continental European economies such as France, Germany, and Italy. Reasons are...

Trust Games Measure Trust

Daniel Houser, Daniel Schunk, Joachim Winter

The relationship between trust and risk is a topic of enduring interest. Although there are substantial differences between the ideas the terms express, many researchers from different disciplines...

Trust Games Measure Trust

Houser, Daniel, Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

The relationship between trust and risk is a topic of enduring interest. Although there are substantial differences between the ideas the terms express, many researchers from different disciplines...

Response bias in survey-based measures of household consumption

Joachim Winter

An important aspect of household surveys is the design of consumption questions. A controlled experiment shows that a single question on total monthly nondurables expenditure and a design with 35...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

The impact of pension reforms and demography on stock markets

Joachim Winter

Population aging is just beginning to hit the industrialized countries in full force, and it will have a tremendous impact on capital markets. Capital market effects of population aging are...

Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Hilft eine höhere Geburtenrate, die Folgen der Alterung zu dämpfen? Die Ergebnisse der Wirtschaftstheorie sind keinesfalls eindeutig, auch wenn die Idee – „Wenn wir zu viele Alte haben,...

Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model

Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

We present a quantitative analysis of international capital flows induced by differential population aging and pension reform. It is well known that within each country, demographic change alters the...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

Axel Börsch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within...

The Relationship Between Risk Attitudes and Heuristics in Search Tasks: A Laboratory Experiment

Daniel Schunk, Joachim Winter

The existing evidence from laboratory experiments suggests that relatively simple heuristics describe observed search behavior better than the optimal stopping rule derived under risk neutrality....

Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices

Florian Heiss, Daniel McFadden, Joachim Winter

Medicare Part D provides prescription drug coverage through Medicare approved plans offered by private insurance companies and HMOs. In this paper, we study the role of current prescription drug use...

Pension Reform, Capital Markets and the Rate of Return

Axel Boersch-Supan, Florian Heiss, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

This paper discusses the consequences of population aging and a fundamental pension reform - that is, a shift towards more pre-funding - for capital markets in Germany. We use a stylized...

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence from a Laboratory Experiment.

Houser, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

We use laboratory experiments to investigate the effect that assuming rational expectations has on structural inference in a dynamic discrete decision problem. Our design induces preferences up to...

Consumer-Directed Health Care: Can Consumers Look After Themselves?

McFadden, Daniel, Winter, Joachim, Heiss, Florian

In health care systems today, including those of Switzerland and the United States, participants do not necessarily see the big picture of lifetime health costs and quality of life, and in many...

Does Firms` Financial Status Affect Plant-Level Investment and Exit Decision

Winter, Joachim

This paper investigates the influence of a firm's financial status on the within-firm allocation of funds, reflected in its plant-level investment and exit decisions. In the empirical analysis,...

Savings decisions under life-time and earnings uncertainty:

Rodepeter, Ralf, Winter, Joachim

We analyze a model of life-cycle savings decisions which allows for both life-time and income uncertainty. We then simulate life-cycle saving rates based on empirical income processes estimated from...

Strukturelle ökonometrische Verfahren zur Analyse von Renteneintrittsentscheidungen

Winter, Joachim

Die umlagefinanzierte deutsche Rentenversicherung steht am Ausgang des 20. Jahrhunderts vor großen Problemen, die im wesentlichen aus der fortschreitenden Alterung der Bevölkerung resultieren:...

Ökonometrische Analyse diskreter dynamischer Entscheidungsprozesse

Winter, Joachim

Eine Vielzahl ökonomischer Entscheidungen ist diskreter Natur und weist ein intertemporales, sequentielles Element auf. Beispiele sind das Ersatzproblem für dauerhafte Wirtschaftsgüter, die...

Tax incentives, bequest motives and the demand for life insurance: evidence from Germany

Walliser, Jan, Winter, Joachim

Life insurance, in particular whole life insurance, plays an important role for private saving in Germany. Whole life insurance combines the insurance against uncertain death with a savings plan....

Pension reform, savings behavior and corporate governance

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Winter, Joachim

France, Germany and Italy, to take the three largest economies in continental Europe, have large and ailing pay-as-you-go public pension systems, very thin capital markets, and low capital...

Rules of thumb in life-cycle savings models

Rodepeter, Ralf, Winter, Joachim

We analyze life-cycle savings decisions when households use simple heuristics, or rules of thumb, rather than solve the underlying intertemporal optimization problem. The decision rules we explore...

The German Savings Puzzle

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Reil-Held, Anette, Rodepeter, Ralf, Schnabel, Reinhold, Winter, Joachim

Germany has one of the most generous public pension and health insurance systems of the world, yet private savings are high until old age. Savings remain positive in old age, even for most low income...

Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: A multi-country simulation model

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the international capital flows induced by differences in population aging processes across countries and by pension reforms. In the vast majority...

Time preference and decision rules in a price search experiment

Houser, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

Structural econometric methods that assume agents have rational expectations are often criticized. Yet, little is known about the relative costs and benefits of adopting alternative empirical...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Design effects in survey-based measures of household consumption

Winter, Joachim

An important issue in designing survey questions on household consumption is the level of aggregation of expenditure categories. In this paper, I present experimental evidence on biases that are...

Bracketing effects in categorized survey questions and the measurement of economic quantities

Winter, Joachim

In households surveys, quantities of interest are frequently elicited using categorized (range-card) formats rather than open-ended questions. One advantage of this format is that is typically...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows:

Börsch-Supan, Axel, Ludwig, Alexander, Winter, Joachim

We present a quantitative analysis of the effects of population aging and pension reform on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within...

Trust Games Measure Trust

Houser, Daniel, Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

The relationship between trust and risk is a topic of enduring interest. Although there are substantial differences between the ideas the terms express, many researchers from different disciplines...

Aging and International Capital Flows

Axel Boersch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Throughout the world, population aging is a major challenge that will continue well into the 21st century. While the patterns of the demographic transition are similar in most countries, timing...

Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model

Axel Boersch-Supan, Alexander Ludwig, Joachim Winter

Population aging and pension reform will have profound effects on international capital markets. First, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings within each country. Second this...

Mind the Gap! Consumer Perceptions and Choices of Medicare Part D Prescription Drug Plans

Florian Heiss, Daniel McFadden, Joachim Winter

Medicare Part D provides prescription drug coverage through Medicare approved plans offered by private insurance companies and HMOs. In this paper, we study the role of current prescription drug use...

Consumer-Directed Health Care: Can Consumers Look After Themselves?

Daniel McFadden, Joachim Winter, Florian Heiss

In health care systems today, including those of Switzerland and the United States, participants do not necessarily see the big picture of lifetime health costs and quality of life, and in many...

Survey Evidence on Conditional Norm Enforcement

Traxler, Christian, Winter, Joachim

We discuss survey evidence on individuals' willingness to sanction norm violations - such as evading taxes, drunk driving, fare dodging, or skiving o work - by expressing disapproval or social...

Structural Measurement Errors in Nonseparable Models

Hoderlein, Stefan, Winter, Joachim

This paper considers measurement error from a new perspective. In surveys, response errors are often caused by the fact that respondents recall past events and quantities imperfectly. We explore the...

Survey Evidence on Conditional Norm Enforcement

Christian Traxler, Joachim Winter

We discuss survey evidence on individuals' willingness to sanction norm violations – such as evading taxes, drunk driving, fare dodging, or skiving off work – by expressing disapproval or social...

Rente mit 67: Wie lange die Deutschen arbeiten können und wollen

Beatrice Scheubel, Joachim Winter

Unter den Reformplänen der großen Koalition wurde und wird die Verlängerung der Lebensarbeitszeit besonders kontrovers diskutiert. Beatrice Scheubel, Center for Economic Studies (CES), und Joachim...

Size Matters! Body Height and Labor Market Discrimination: A Cross-European Analysis

Francesco Cinnirella, Joachim Winter

Taller workers earn on average higher salaries. Recent research has proposed cognitive abilities and social skills as explanations for the height-wage premium. Another possible mechanism, employer...

Don't Raise the Retirement Age! An Experiment on Opposition to Pension Reforms and East-West Differences in Germany

Beatrice Scheubel, Daniel Schunk, Joachim Winter

For policy reforms to increase a society's welfare, reliable information on people's prefer-ences and expectations is crucial. Representative opinion polls, often involving simplified questions about...

The relationship between risk attitudes and heuristics in search tasks: A laboratory experiment

Schunk, Daniel, Winter, Joachim

Experimental studies of search behavior suggest that individuals stop searching earlier than the optimal, risk-neutral stopping rule predicts. Two different classes of decision rules could generate...

Regulation of private health insurance markets: Lessons from enrollment, plan type choice, and adverse selection in Medicare Part D

Florian Heiss, Daniel McFadden, Joachim Winter

We study the Medicare Part D prescription drug insurance program as a bellwether for designs of private, non-mandatory health insurance markets that control adverse selection and assure adequate...

Distinguishing trust from risk: an anatomy of the investment game

Daniel Houser, Daniel Schunk, Joachim Winter

The role of trust in promoting economic activity and societal development has received considerable academic attention by social scientists. A popular way to measure trust at the individual level is...