Consensus and Differences of Opinion in (2008)
Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, Michael Cipriano
Businesses are exploring the use of prediction markets to assist with forecasting. In this study, we focus on the ability of prediction markets to reflect the consensus of trader forecasts as well as...
The Handbook of Experimental Economics Results (2003)
Joyce E. Berg, John W. Dickhaut, Thomas A. Rietz, Jel Classifications B, Glenn Harrison, ...
On the Performance of the Lottery Procedure for Controlling Risk Preferences In theory, the lottery-based induction procedure for controlling risk preferences (Roth and Malouf, 1979; and Berg, Daley,...
Preference Reversals and Induced Risk Preferences: Evidence for Noisy Maximization.
Berg, Joyce E, Dickhaut, John W, Rietz, Thomas A
We combine two research lines: preference reversal research (Lichtenstein and Slovic, 1971) and research on lottery-based risk preference induction (Roth and Malouf, 1979). Our results are...
Prediction market accuracy in the long run
Berg, Joyce E., Nelson, Forrest D., Rietz, Thomas A.
"Prediction markets" are designed specifically to forecast events such as elections. Though election prediction markets have been being conducted for almost twenty years, to date nearly all of the...
On the Performance of the Lottery Procedure for Controlling Risk Preferences
Berg, Joyce E., Rietz, Thomas A., Dickhaut, John W., Charles R. Plott, Vernon L. Smith
The role of information asymmetry in escalation phenomena: Empirical evidence
Berg, Joyce E., Dickhaut, John W., Kanodia, Chandra
Economic rationality dictates that only incremental costs and benefits should affect decisions. Observed behavior often seems to violate this principle, resulting in unwarranted commitment to past...
Incentive and Accuracy Issues in Movie Prediction Markets
Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg, Michael Cipriano
We compare the forecasts of nineteen movie box office results from real money (Iowa Electronic Market) and play money (Hollywood Stock Exchange) prediction markets. The forecasts were not...
Public Information Bias and Prediction Market Accuracy
Thomas S. Gruca, Joyce E. Berg
How do prediction markets achieve high levels of accuracy? We propose that, in some situations, traders in prediction markets improve upon publicly available information. Specifically, when there is...