Kesten C. Green

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit (2007)

How useful are probabilistic forecasts of the outcomes of particular situations? Potentially, they contain more information than unequivocal forecasts and, as they allow a more realistic...

Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Soon, Willie

The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on...

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)

Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas

Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared (2007)

Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas

Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...

Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts (2007)

Global Warming: Forecasts by Scientists versus Scientific Forecasts (2007)

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme,...

Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, issued...

The Ombudsman: Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2007)

Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2006)

In important conflicts such as wars and labor-management disputes, people typically rely on the judgment of experts to predict the decisions that will be made. We compared the accuracy of 106...

Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...

Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2006)

Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2006)

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...

Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2006)

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...

Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2005)

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are commonly used by firms. A 1996 review of the evidence, summarized in this paper, indicated that...

Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2005)

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...

Demand forecasting ; evidence-based methods (2005)

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...

Competitor-oriented objectives ; the myth of market share (2005)

Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2005)

Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2005)

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...

ISSN 1440-771X Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share (2005)

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, Ijbcomp Obj. Doc

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...

Demand forecasting: evidence-based methods (2005)

Competitor-oriented objectives: the myth of market share (2005)

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...

Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...

Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...

Structured analogies in forecasting (2004)

Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott

When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how...

Further Evidence on Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists' forecasts...

Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...

Further Evidence on Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists' forecasts...

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...

Value of expertise for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists’ forecasts...

Structured analogies for forecasting (2004)

Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)

Further Evidence on Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists' forecasts...

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists’ forecasts...

Structured Analogies for Forecasting (2004)

Further Evidence on Game Theory, Simulated Interaction, and Unaided Judgement for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

When people forecast, they often use analogies, but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate...

Value of Expertise for Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts (2004)

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists' forecasts...

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts (2004)

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...

Structured analogies for forecasting

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them make better decisions. Contrary to expectations, earlier research found game theorists’ forecasts...

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts.

When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how...

Kesten C. Green

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them to make better decisions. Contrary to expert expectations, earlier research found game theorists'...

Value of Expertise For Forecasting Decisions in Conflicts

Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods

In important conflicts, people typically rely on experts' judgments to predict the decisions that adversaries will make. We compared the accuracy of 106 expert and 169 novice forecasts for eight real...

J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In...

Structured analogies for forecasting

Further evidence on game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts.

When people forecast, they often use analogies but in an unstructured manner. We propose a structured judgmental procedure that involves asking experts to list as many analogies as they can, rate how...

Kesten C. Green

If people in conflicts can more accurately forecast how others will respond, that should help them to make better decisions. Contrary to expert expectations, earlier research found game theorists'...

Competitor-oriented Objectives: The Myth of Market Share

Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts

Competitor-oriented objectives, such as market-share targets, are promoted by academics and are common in business. A 1996 review of the evidence indicated that this violation of economic theory led...

Methods to Elicit Forecasts from Groups: Delphi and Prediction Markets Compared

In 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Working Group One, a panel of experts established by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme,...

Green, Kesten C., Armstrong, J. Scott, Graefe, Andreas

Traditional groups meetings are an inefficient and ineffective method for making forecasts and decisions. We compare two structured alternatives to traditional meetings: the Delphi technique and...

Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: Further evidence

Forecasting decisions in conflict situations: a comparison of game theory, role-playing, and unaided judgement

Embroiled in a conflict: who do you call?

The War in Iraq: Should We Have Expected Better Forecasts?

Structured analogies for forecasting

The authors report the results of several forecasting experiments they conducted with university students and experts, producing some amazing results. Copyright International Institute of...

The war in Iraq: Should we have expected better forecasts?

Assessing probabilistic forecasts about particular situations

Predicting elections from politicians’ faces

How useful are probabilistic forecasts of the outcomes of particular situations? Potentially, they contain more information than unequivocal forecasts and, as they allow a more realistic...

Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Jones, Randall J., Wright, Malcolm

Prior research found that people’s assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would...

Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit

Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Soon, Willie

The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on...

Benchmark forecasts for climate change

Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J Scott, Soon, Willie

Climate is complex, uncertain, and, over horizons that are relevant for policy decisions, varies little. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we determined that for such a...

Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts