International Business Cycles: World, Region, (2003)
M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Charles H. Whiteman
The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common...
International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors (1999)
M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Charles H. Whiteman
: The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business cycle fluctuations across countries, regions and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common...
Understanding the Evolution of World Business Cycles
M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Charles H. Whiteman
This paper studies the changes in world business cycles during 1960-2003. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common and country-specific components in the main macroeconomic...
Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle...
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship Between Growth and Volatility?
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Marco Terrones
The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom-that output volatility and growth are negatively...
Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa
M. Ayhan Kose, Raymond Riezman
This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a...
Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements
M. Ayhan Kose, Raymond Riezman
This paper examines various implications of Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs), namely Customs Unions (CUs) and Free Trade Areas (FTAs), in the context of a multi-country general equilibrium model...
Dynamics of Open-Economy Business-Cycle Models: Role of the Discount Factor.
Kim, Sunghyun Henry, Kose, M Ayhan
This paper examines the dynamic implications of different preference formulations in open-economy business-cycle models with incomplete asset markets. In particular, we study two preference...
Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility in Developing Countries
Eswar S. Prasad, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei, M. Ayhan Kose
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of empirical evidence about the impact of financial globalization on growth and volatility in developing countries. The results suggest that it is...
How Do Trade and Financial Integration Affect the Relationship between Growth and Volatility?
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, Marco E. Terrones
The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom – that output volatility and growth are negatively...
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Kenneth S. Rogoff, Shang-Jin Wei
The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels with a variety of apparently conflicting...
How Different Is the Cyclical Behavior of Home Production Across Countries?
M. Ayhan Kose, William Blankenau
This paper studies stylized business cycle properties of household production in four industrialized countries (Canada, the United States, Germany, and Japan). We employ a dynamic small open economy...
Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, Marco E. Terrones
We extend the analysis in Kose, Prasad, and Terrones (2005) to provide a comprehensive examination of the cross-sectional relationship between growth and macroeconomic volatility over the past four...
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, Marco E. Terrones
In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation of...
Integration and Fluctuations : The Case of MENA
HIDEAKI HIRATA, SUNGHYUN HENRY KIM, M. AYHAN KOSE
This paper analyzes the impact of global integration on the dynamics of economic growth and business cycles in the emerging economies of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia. In particular,...
International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country-Specific Factors
M. Ayhan Kose, Christopher Otrok, Charles H. Whiteman
The paper investigates the common dynamic properties of business-cycle fluctuations across countries, regions, and the world. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to estimate common...
Dynamics of Open Economy Models: What Is the Role of the Discount Factor?
Sunghyun Henry Kim, M. Ayhan Kose
This paper examines the dynamic implications of the use of an endogenous discount factor in small open economy models. We first present a stochastic dynamic model of a small open economy with an...
World Real Interest Rates and Business Cycles in Open Economies: a Multiple Shock Approach
M. Ayhan Kose, Bill Blankenau, Kei-Mu Yi
We examine the importance of world real interest rate shocks in explaining business-cycle fluctuations in open economies using a stochastic dynamic model of a small open economy. We argue that a good...
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
Kose, M. Ayhan, Prasad, Eswar E., Terrones, Marco E.
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at...
HOW DIFFERENT IS THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF HOME PRODUCTION ACROSS COUNTRIES?
BLANKENAU, WILLIAM, KOSE, M. AYHAN
This paper studies stylized business-cycle properties of household production in four industrialized countries (Canada, the United States, Germany, and Japan). We employ a dynamic small open-economy...
Dynamics of Business Cycles in Asia: Differences and Similarities
Sunghyun Henry Kim, M. Ayhan Kose, Michael G. Plummer
The paper documents the extent of similarities and differences of business cycle characteristics of the Asian countries and compares the cyclical regularities in this region with those of the G-7...
Growth and Volatility in an Era of Globalization
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, Marco E. Terrones
We extend the analysis in Kose, Prasad, and Terrones (2005) to provide a comprehensive examination of the cross-sectional relationship between growth and macroeconomic volatility over the past four...
Small Countries and Preferential Trade Agreements "How Severe is the Innocent Bystander Problem?"
Kose, M. Ayhan, Riezman, Raymond
This paper examines the welfare implications of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) from the perspective of small countries in the context of a multi-country, general equilibrium model. We calibrate...
Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa
Kose, M. Ayhan, Riezman, Raymond
This paper examines the role of external shocks in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in African countries. We construct a quantitative, stochastic, dynamic, multi-sector equilibrium model of a...
Global Business Cycles: Convergence or Decoupling?
Kose, M. Ayhan, Otrok, Christopher, Prasad, Eswar
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups – industrial countries,...
Sources of Fluctuations: The Case of MENA
Hideaki Hirata, Sunghyun Henry Kim, M. Ayhan Kose
We analyze the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in the emerging countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model...
External Shocks and Economic Dynamics: The Case of African Countries
Kose, M. Ayhan, Riezman, Raymond
A number of African economies have highly concentrated export and import sectors. Moreover, their export revenues are highly unstable due to recurrent and sharp variations in the prices of main...
Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements.
Kose, M Ayhan, Riezman, Raymond
This paper examines various implications of preferential trade agreements, namely customs unions and free trade areas, in the context of a multicountry general equilibrium model. The model is...
How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar S. Prasad, Marco E. Terrones
The influential work of Ramey and Ramey (1995) highlighted an empirical relationship that has now come to be regarded as conventional wisdom—that output volatility and growth are negatively...
Can world real interest rates explain business cycles in a small open economy?
William Blankenau, M. Ayhan Kose, Kei-Mu Yi
While the world real interest rate is potentially an important mechanism for transmitting international shocks to small open economies, much of the recent quantitative research that studies this...
The trade comovement problem in international macroeconomics
Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle...
Recent empirical research finds that pairs of countries with stronger trade linkages tend to have more highly correlated business cycles. We assess whether the standard international business cycle...
Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal
Kenneth Rogoff, M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Shang-Jin Wei
The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels and with a variety of apparently...
How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Marco Terrones
This paper examines the impact of rising trade and financial integration on international business cycle comovement among a large group of industrial and developing countries. The results provide at...
Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Marco Terrones
This paper examines the impact of international financial integration on macroeconomic volatility in a large group of industrial and developing economies over the period 1960-99. We report two major...
Volatility and Comovement in a Globalized World Economy: An Empirical Exploration
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Marco Terrones
This paper analyzes the evolution of volatility and cross-country comovement in output, consumption, and investment fluctuations using two distinct datasets. The results suggest that there has been a...
How Has NAFTA Affected the Mexican Economy? Review and Evidence
M. Ayhan Kose, Guy Meredith, Christopher M. Towe
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the impact of NAFTA on growth and business cycles in Mexico. The effect of the agreement in spurring a dramatic increase in trade and financial flows...
Economic Integration, Business Cycle, and Productivity in North America
M. Ayhan Kose, Roberto Cardarelli
This paper examines the effect of the major Canada-U.S. trade agreements on the dynamics of business cycles and productivity in Canada. The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its...
How Does Financial Globalization Affect Risk Sharing? Patterns and Channels
M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, Marco Terrones
In theory, one of the main benefits of financial globalization is that it should allow for more efficient international risk sharing. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical evaluation of the...
Changing Nature of North-South Linkages: Stylized Facts and Explanations
This paper examines the changing nature of growth spillovers between developed economies, the North, and developing countries, the South, driven by the process of globalization?the phenomenon of...
Does Openness to International Financial Flows Contribute to Productivity Growth?
Kose, M. Ayhan, Prasad, Eswar, Terrones, Marco E.
Economic theory has identified a number of channels through which openness to international financial flows could raise productivity growth. However, while there is a vast empirical literature...