Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel
Recent research has concluded that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this...
Office of the Chief Economist Inter-American Development Bank (2007)
Eduardo Fernandez-arias, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that North-South trade accords can serve as...
Growth and Investment Across Countries: Are Primitives All That Matter? (2007)
Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper examines the channels through which country characteristics affect growth. We investigate whether “primitives, ” or rates of factor accumulation, are sufficient statistics for economic...
Human capital and technology diffusion (2005)
Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel, Rody Manuelli, Chris Papageorgiou
This paper generalizes the Nelson-Phelps catch-up model of technology diffusion. We allow for the possibility that the pattern of technology difusion can be exponential, which would predict that...
Human capital and technology diffusion (2005)
Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel, Rody Manuelli, Chris Papageorgiou
This paper generalizes the Nelson-Phelps catch-up model of technology diffusion. We allow for the possibility that the pattern of technology difusion can be exponential, which would predict that...
TheRoleofRelativePerformanceinBank Closure Decisions ∗ (2003)
This paper studies a banking industry subject to common and idiosyncratic shocks. We compare two types of regulatory closure rules: (1) an ‘absolute closure rule’, which closes banks when their...
CAPITAL CONTROLS AND DEVIATIONS FROM PROPOSED INTEREST RATE PARITY: MEXICO 1982 (1990)
An intervention analysis of the Mexican capital control policy of August 1982 shows the policy to have had a negative, but temporary, impact on the Mexican deviation from interest rate parity....
Offshore financial centers: parasites or symbionts?
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries....
Easing out of the Bank of Japan's monetary easing policy
Monetary policy - Japan ; Deflation (Finance)
Asset price declines and real estate market illiquidity: evidence from Japanese land values
John Krainer, Mark M. Spiegel, Nobuyoshi Yamori
Financial crises - Japan ; Real property
A currency board for Indonesia?
Indonesia ; Currency boards ; Foreign exchange - Law and legislation ; Money
North-South customs unions and international capital mobility
Fernandez-Arias, Eduardo, Spiegel, Mark M.
The primary distinction in a North-South trade accord is likely to be that the Southern nation experiences more capital scarcity than its Northern trade partner. So the trade accord's impact on the...
A look at China's new exchange rate regime
In this Economic Letter, the author reviews several characteristics of the new renminbi regime. He also examines how the renminbi might have moved in the past if this regime had been in place....
Threshold effects in international lending
The author's dynamic model of international borrowing subject to credit constraint was developed for an economy with increasing returns to physical capital. Increases in the capital stock within the...
Determinants of Voluntary Bank Disclosure: Evidence from Japanese Shinkin Banks
Spiegel, Mark M., Yamori, Nobuyoshi
Disclosure is widely regarded as a necessary condition for market discipline in a modern financial sector. However, the determinants of disclosure decisions are still unknown, particularly among...
Monetary and financial integration: evidence from the EMU
International finance ; International economic integration
Human Capital and Technology Diffusion
Benhabib, Jess, Spiegel, Mark M., Philippe Aghion, Steven Durlauf
This paper generalizes the Nelson-Phelps catch-up model of technology diffusion. We allow for the possibility that the pattern of technology diffusion can be exponential, which would predict that...
What monetary regime for post-war Iraq?
Iraq ; War - Economic aspects ; Monetary policy
Japanese foreign exchange intervention
Foreign exchange - Japan ; Monetary policy - Japan ; Yen, Japanese
A theory of North-South customs unions
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that treatment of foreign investment,...
Does state economic development spending increase manufacturing employment?
Recent studies, which have attempted to determine what causes an industrial sector in a state to grow, have ignored the general role of the state's economic development agency. We extend the analysis...
Boyan Jovanovic, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper analyzes how political stability depends on economic factors. Fluctuations in groups' economic capacities and in their abilities to engage in rent-seeking or predatory behavior create...
Panel evidence on the speed of convergence
Timothy Cogley, Mark M. Spiegel
Estimates of the speed of convergence vary widely and depend on the methodology employed. While cross-sectional regressions typically find slow convergence, time series estimates suggest that incomes...
Raising reserve requirements in response to Asian capital inflow surges
Bank reserves ; Developing countries ; Pacific Area ; Capital movements ; Monetary policy
New evidence on state economic development spending and manufacturing employment
Economic development ; State finance ; Federal Reserve District, 12th ; Manufactures ; Employment (Economic theory)
Why is the Philippines repurchasing its Brady bonds?
Philippines ; Brady Plan ; Bonds
Monetary unions - European Union countries ; European currency unit ; Fiscal policy
The costs of managing speculative capital inflows in the Pacific Basin
Kenneth M. Kletzer, Mark M. Spiegel
Capital movements ; Pacific Area ; Asia
British central bank independence and inflation expectations
Great Britain ; Banks and banking, Central
Bank of Japan purchases of risky assets: lessons from colonial America
Bank of Japan ; Investments
Inflation targeting for the Bank of Japan?
Inflation (Finance) - Japan ; Bank of Japan
Short-term international borrowing and financial fragility
Financial crises ; International finance
Did quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan "work"?
The success, or lack thereof, of the Bank of Japan's quantitative easing program is of interest not only as an important experience in Japanese economic history, but more generally as an...
Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia
This paper develops an open-economy version of the Bernanke-Blinder model which indicates that sterilization efforts through increases in reserve requirements will have limited impact if viable...
Fixed-premium deposit insurance and international credit crunches
This article introduces a monopolistically competitive model of foreign lending in which both explicit and implicit fixed-premium deposit insurance increase the degree to which bank participation in...
Central bank independence and inflation expectations: evidence from British index-linked gilts
This paper conducts a case study of the impact of the May 6, 1997, announcement of enhanced independence of the Bank of England on estimates of expected future inflation and real interest rates....
Moral hazard under the Japanese "convoy" banking system
This paper examines a banking regime similar to the "convoy" scheme which prevailed in Japan through most of the 1990s. Insolvent banks are merged with solvent banks rather than closed, with the...
The disposition of failed Japanese bank assets: lessons from the U.S. savings and loan crisis
This paper reviews the Japanese experience with "put guarantees" recently offered in the sale of several failed banks. These guarantees, meant to address information asymmetry problems, are shown to...
Using cross-country data, we review the empirical evidence concerning long-term labor and total factor productivity growth. We find that the conclusions one can draw from cross-country data are...
"Burden sharing" in sovereign debt reduction
We examine a concerted debt reduction deal between a sovereign debtor, a private creditor, and an official creditor, who insures the deposits of the commercial bank. Our results show that a weakening...
Fixed-premium deposit insurance and international credit crunches
We introduce a monopolistically-competitive model of foreign lending in which both explicit and implicit fixed-premium deposit insurance increase the degree to which bank participation in relending...
Financial implications of regional trade accords
Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine the implications of a North-South trade accord where investments in the Southern partner nation exhibit country risk. Our analysis demonstrates that North-South trade accords can serve as...
Growth and investment across countries
Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper examines the channels through which country characteristics affect growth. We investigate whether "primitives," or rates of factor accumulation, are sufficient statistics for economic...
The ins and outs of joining a monetary union
Among the reasons for joining a monetary union, attention has fallen on the potential for improving a nation's monetary policy credibility. In this paper, we examine the decision problem faced by an...
The role of relative performance in bank closure decisions
This paper studies a competitive banking industry subject to common and idiosyncratic shocks. The induced correlation across bank portfolio returns can be used by a regulator to improve inferences...
Solvency runs, sunspot runs, and international bailouts
This paper introduces a model of international lender of last resort (ILLR) activity under asymmetric information. The ILLR is unable to distinguish between runs due to debtor insolvency and those...
The disposition of failed bank assets: put guarantees or loss-sharing arrangements?
To mitigate the regulator losses associated with bank failures, efforts are usually made to dispose of failed bank assets quickly. However, this process usually precludes due diligence examination by...
A gravity model of sovereign lending: trade, default and credit
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with...
Human capital and technology diffusion
Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper generalizes the Nelson-Phelps catch-up model of technology diffusion. We allow for the possibility that the pattern of technology diffusion can be exponential, which would predict that...
Institutional efficiency, monitoring costs, and the investment share of FDI
Joshua Aizenman, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models and tests the implications of institutional efficiency on the pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI). We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage over foreign...
Monetary and financial integration: evidence from Portuguese borrowing patterns
This paper examines the impact of European Monetary Union (EMU) accession on bilateral Portuguese international borrowing patterns. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, I demonstrate that...
Offshore financial centers: parasites or symbionts?
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper analyzes the causes and consequences of offshore financial centers (OFCs). Since OFCs are likely to be tax havens and money launderers, they encourage bad behavior in source countries....
Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link
Jess Benhabib, Mark M. Spiegel
In a recent paper, Atkeson and Kehoe (2004) demonstrated the lack of a robust empirical relationship between inflation and growth for a cross-section of countries with 19th and 20th century data,...
Non-economic engagement and international exchange: the case of environmental treaties
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...
Foreign bank lending and bond underwriting in Japan during the lost decade
Jose A. Lopez, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine foreign intermediation activity in Japan during the so-called "lost decade" of the 1990s, contrasting the behavior of lending by foreign commercial banks and underwriting activity by...
Are buybacks back? Menu-driven debt-reduction schemes with heterogenous creditors
Diwan, Ishac, Spiegel, Mark M.
There is always some price that is low enough so that a debtor country gains by buying back some of its debts. Similarly, there is always some price that is high enough so that creditors gain by...
Concerted Lending: Did Large Banks Bear the Burden?
A game-theoretic model of lending with banks heterogeneous by size is introduced in which atomistic small banks free ride on the relending efforts of a large bank. An empirically-testable corollary...
Heterogeneity in bank valuation of LDC debt: Evidence from the 1988 Brazilian debt-reduction program
Currency boards, dollarized liabilities, and monetary policy credibility
Diego Valderrama, Mark M. Spiegel
The recent collapse of the Argentine currency board raises new questions about the desirability of formal fixed exchange rate regimes in modern developing economies. This paper examines the impact of...
The role of relative performance in bank closure decisions
This paper studies a banking industry subject to common and idiosyncratic shocks. We compare two types of regulatory closure rules: (1) an “absolute closure rule,” which closes banks when their...
International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are further from major locations of...
Joshua Aizenman, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper identifies factors associated with takeoff--a sustained period of high growth following a period of stagnation. We examine a panel of 241 "stagnation episodes" from 146 countries, 54% of...
Institutional Efficiency, Monitoring Costs and the Investment Share of FDI *
Joshua Aizenman, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models and tests the implications of institutional efficiency on the pattern of FDI. We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage over foreign agents in overcoming some of...
The Role of Financial Development in Growth and Investment.
Benhabib, Jess, Spiegel, Mark M
This article decomposes the well-documented relationship between financial development and growth. We examine whether financial development affects growth solely through its contribution to growth in...
Sterilization of capital inflows through the banking sector: evidence from Asia
This paper develops an open-economy version of the Bernanke-Blinder model which indicates that sterilization efforts through increases in reserve requirements will have limited impact if viable...
Are Asian economies exempt from the "impossible trinity?": evidence from Singapore
East Asia ; Asia ; Singapore ; Monetary policy ; Foreign exchange ; Capital movements
Bank charter value and the viability of the Japanese convoy system
This paper compares the performance of a convoy banking system, similar to that which prevailed in Japan, to a fixed-premium deposit insurance regime. Under this system, failed banks are merged with...
The evolution of "too-big-to-fail" policy in Japan: evidence from market equity values
Mark M. Spiegel, Nobuyoshi Yamori
This paper examines the evidence in bank equity markets concerning bank regulatory policies in Japan over the turbulent 1995-1998 period. We find that investors grouped banks according to regulatory...
Financial turbulence and the Japanese main bank
Mark M. Spiegel, Nobuyoshi Yamori
The Japanese "main bank" relationship, under which a bank holds equity in a firm and plays a leading role in its decision-making and financing, may leave a firm dependent on its main bank for...
Financial development and growth: are the APEC nations unique?
This paper examines panel evidence concerning the role of financial development in economic growth. I decompose the well-documented relationship between financial development and growth to examine...
The disposition of failed Japanese bank assets: lessons from the U.S. savings and loan crisis
This paper reviews the Japanese experience with “put guarantees” recently offered in the sale of several failed banks. These guarantees, meant to address information asymmetry problems, are shown...
Financial structure and macroeconomic performance over the short and long run
Jose A. Lopez, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine the relationship between indicators of financial development and economic performance for a cross-country panel over long and short periods. Our long-term results are consistent with much...
Determinants of voluntary bank disclosure: evidence from Japanese Shinkin banks
Mark M. Spiegel, Nobuyoshi Yamori
Disclosure is widely regarded as a necessary condition for market discipline in a modern financial sector. However, the determinants of disclosure decisions are still unknown, particularly among...
Speculative capital inflows and exchange rate targeting in the Pacific Basin: theory and evidence
Kenneth Kletzer, Mark M. Spiegel
Capital movements ; Foreign exchange ; Pacific Area
The impact of Japan’s financial stabilization laws on bank equity values
Mark M. Spiegel, Nobuyoshi Yamori
In the fall of 1998, two important financial regulatory reform acts were passed in Japan. The first of these acts, the Financial Recovery Act, created a bridge bank scheme and provided funds for the...
Capital Controls and Deviations from Proposed Interest Rate Parity: Mexico 1982.
An intervention analysis of the Mexican capital control policy of August 1982 shows the policy to have had a negative, but temporary, impact on the Mexican deviation from interest rate parity....
RISK AVERSION, DEPOSIT INSURANCE, AND COLLECTIVE ACTION PROBLEMS AMONG BANKS
lending policies ; risk aversion ; insurance
DEBT WRITE-DOWNS AND DEBT-EQUITY SWAPS IN A TWO SECTOR MODEL
Goldberg, L., Spiegel, Mark M.
debt ; investments ; credit ; economic models
CONCERTED LENDING: DID LARGE BANKS BEAR THE BURDEN?
banks ; lending policies ; empirical methods ; loans ; economic models
Are Buybacks Back? Menu-Driven Debt-Reduction in Schemes with Heterogeneous Creditors
Diwan, Ishac, Spiegel, Mark M.
Economic equilibrium ; banks ; market ; costs
Threshold Effects in International Lending
Models ; international barrowing ; capital ; credit
Growth Accounting with Physical and Human Capital Accumulation
Benhabib, Jess, Spiegel, Mark M.
Production functions ; income ; production factors ; investments ; capital-output ratio
Non-Economic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
We examine the role of non-economic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...
Monetary and financial integration in the EMU: Push or pull?
A number of studies have recently noted that monetary integration in the European Monetary Union (EMU) has been accompanied by increased financial integration. This paper examines the channels...
Financial globalization and monetary policy discipline
The literature appears to have reached a consensus that financial globalization has had a "disciplining effect" on monetary policy, as it has reduced the returns from--and hence the temptation...
The EMU effect on the currency denomination of international bonds
This Economic Letter reviews recent work that focuses on micro-level data to study the impact of the launch of the EMU on the currency denomination of international bonds.
Who drove the boom in euro-denominated bond issues?
We make use of micro-level data for over 45,000 private bonds issued by over 5000 firms from 22 countries in 1990-2006 to analyze the impact that the launch of the EMU had on the currency...
International Financial Remoteness and Macroeconomic Volatility
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are further from major locations of...
A Gravity Model of Sovereign Lending: Trade, Default and Credit
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
One reason why countries service their external debts is the fear that default might lead to shrinkage of international trade. If so, then creditors should systematically lend more to countries with...
Institutional Efficiency, Monitoring Costs, and the Investment Share of FDI
Joshua Aizenman, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models and tests the implications of costly enforcement of property rights on the pattern of foreign direct investment (FDI). We posit that domestic agents have a comparative advantage...
The Evolution Of Bank Resolution Policies In Japan: Evidence From Market Equity Values
Mark M. Spiegel, Nobuyoshi Yamori
We examine the evidence in equity markets concerning bank regulatory policies in Japan from 1995 to 1999. Our results support the presence of information-based contagion in Japanese equity markets....
Noneconomic Engagement and International Exchange: The Case of Environmental Treaties
ANDREW K. ROSE, MARK M. SPIEGEL
We examine the role of noneconomic partnerships in promoting international economic exchange. Since far-sighted countries are more willing to join costly international partnerships such as...
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible...
The literature appears to have reached a consensus that financial globalization has had a “disciplining effect” on monetary policy, as it has reduced the returns from—and hence the temptation...
Moderate Inflation and the Deflation-Depression Link
JESS BENHABIB, MARK M. SPIEGEL
Recent research has concluded that the historical evidence only provides weak support for the contention that deflation episodes are harmful to economic growth. In this paper, we revisit this...
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
Economists are skeptical about the economic benefits of hosting "mega-events" such as the Olympic Games or the World Cup, since such activities have considerable cost and seem to yield few tangible...
Foreign entry into underwriting services: evidence from Japan's "Big Bang" deregulation
Mark M. Spiegel, Jose A. Lopez
We examine the impact of foreign underwriting activity on bond markets using issue level data in the Japanese "Samurai" and euro-yen bond markets. Firms choosing Japanese underwriters tend to be...
Cross-country causes and consequences of the 2008 crisis: early warning
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of...
Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
Glick,Reuven, Moreno,Ramon, Spiegel,Mark M.
Recent financial crises, beginning with Mexico in 1994–95, the Asian crisis of 1997–1998, and the crises in Russia, Brazil, and other Latin American countries in 1998–99, illustrate the risks...
International financial remoteness and macroeconomic volatility
Rose, Andrew K., Spiegel, Mark M.
This paper shows that proximity to major international financial centers seems to reduce business cycle volatility. In particular, we show that countries that are farther from major locations of...
Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU
This paper examines the impact of European Monetary Union (EMU) accession on bilateral international commercial bank lending patterns. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, I demonstrate...
Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a crosssection of 107...
Cross-Country Causes and Consequences of the 2008 Crisis: Early Warning
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of...
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85...
Predicting crises, part II: Did anything matter (to everybody)?
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
The enormity of the current financial collapse raises the question whether the crisis could have been predicted. This is the second of two Economic Letters on the topic. This Letter examines research...
Andrew K. Rose, Mark M. Spiegel
This paper models the causes of the 2008 financial crisis together with its manifestations, using a Multiple Indicator Multiple Cause (MIMIC) model. Our analysis is conducted on a cross-section of 85...