Price setting and inflation dynamics in small open economies / (2001)
Thesis research directed by Dept. of Economics.
The 1994 currency crisis in Turkey
As a result of Turkey's currency crisis in 1994, output fell 6 percent, inflation rose to three-digit levels, the Central Bank lost half of its reserves, and the exchange rate (against the US dollar)...
Obstacles to disinflation: what is the role of fiscal expectations?
Oya Celasun, R. Gaston Gelos, Alessandro Prati
"Persistently high expected inflation often makes it difficult for policy-makers to recover from inflationary episodes without substantial output losses. Using survey data from eleven disinflation...
Xavier Debrun, Oya Celasun, Jonathan David Ostry
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt...
Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?
Oya Celasun, Gaston R. Gelos, Alessandro Prati
Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation...
Nominal Exchange Rate Anchoring Under Inflation Inertia
Michael Kumhof, Oya Celasun, Guillermo Calvo
Exchange rate policy , Inflation , Pricing policy , Stabilization measures , Economic models ,
Oya Celasun, Xavier Debrun, Jonathan D. Ostry
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt...
How does private foreign borrowing affect the risk of sovereign default in developing countries?
We argue that increased foreign borrowing by the private sector reduces the risk that a developing country's government defaults on its foreign debt. We present a simple model in which private...
Turkey at the Crossroads: From Crisis Resolution to EU Accession
Xavier Debrun, Ashoka Mody, Oya Celasun, Martin Schindler, Cheng Hoom Lim, Chris Lane, ...
Economic growth , Turkey , Inflation , Debt , Labor markets , Financial sector ,
Capital flows, macroeconomic management, and the financial system - Turkey, 1989-97
Celasun, Oya, Denizer, Cevdet, Dong He
Recent developments in a number of emerging economies have heightened interest in the relationship between macroeconomic management and financial regulation, in an environment of open capital...
Oya Celasun, Xavier Debrun, Jonathan D. Ostry
This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to public debt sustainability analy-sis (DSA) using "fan charts." These depict the magnitude of risks-upside and downside-surrounding public debt...
On the Properties of Various Estimators for Fiscal Reaction Functions
This paper evaluates the bias of the least-squares-with-dummy-variables (LSDV) method in fiscal reaction function estimations. A growing number of studies estimate fiscal policy reaction...
An Analysis of Money Demand and Inflation in the Islamic Republic of Iran
This study examines money demand and inflation dynamics in the Islamic Republic of Iran using quarterly data for the period 1990/91-2001/02 and tests whether the disinflation during 2000/01-2001/02...
Exchange Rate Regime Considerations in an Oil Economy: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran
This paper provides a brief overview of the evolution of exchange rate policy in the Islamic Republic of Iran from 1993 to 2002 and reviews the basic criteria for the choice of the exchange rate...
Would "Cold Turkey" Work in Turkey?
Oya Celasun, Gaston R. Gelos, Alessandro Prati
Persistently high inflation rates have led many to believe that inflation in Turkey has become "inertial," posing an obstacle to disinflation. We assess the empirical validity of this argument. We...
Sticky Inflation and the Real Effects of Exchange Rate Based Stabilization
Exchange rate-based inflation stabilization (ERBS) policies are associated with a boom-recession cycle in economic activity and sustained real exchange rate appreciation. A class of models in the...
Predictability of aid: Do fickle donors undermine aid effectiveness?
"Aid recipients and donors alike frequently voice concerns about the lack of predictability of development aid. The existing literature often treats predictability and volatility as closely related,...
Inflation Inertia and Credible Disinflation - The Open Economy Case
Guillermo Calvo, Oya Celasun, Michael Kumhof
This paper develops a model of inflation inertia based on optimizing forward looking staggered price setting in a small open economy. Unlike in current models of sticky prices, transitions to a lower...