In this paper we review and analyse scenario planning as an aid to anticipation of the future under conditions of low predictability. We examine how successful the method is in mitigating issues to...
Teaching scenario planning : lessons from practice in academe and business. (2009)
Wright, G., Cairns, G., Goodwin, P.
In this paper, we engage with O’Brien’s [O’Brien, F.A., 2004. Scenario planning – lessons for practice from teaching and learning. European Journal of Operational Research 152, 709–722]...
Accurate forecasts are crucial to successful planning in many organizations and in 2001 forty international experts published a set of principles to guide best practice in forecasting. Some of the...
Second consensus on medical treatment of metastatic breast cancer (2007)
BESLIJA, S, BONNETERRE, J, BURSTEIN, H, Cocquyt, Veronique, GNANT, M, GOODWIN, P, ...
Providing spport for the use of analogies in demand forecasting tasks. (2007)
Goodwin, P., Lee, W. Y., Fildes, R., Nikolopoulos, K., Lawrence, M.
Second consensus on medical treatment of metastatic breast cancer (2007)
Beslija, S, Bonneterre, J, Burstein, H, Cocquyt, V, Gnant, M, Goodwin, P, ...
The present consensus manuscript defines evidence-based recommendations for state-of-the-art treatment of metastatic breast cancer depending on disease-associated and biologic variables.
Fildes, RA, Goodwin, P, Lawrence, M, Nikolopoulos, K
Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a simple univariate...
The process of using a forecasting support system. (2006)
Goodwin, P, Fildes, RA, Lawrence, M, Nikolopoulos, K
The actions of individual users of an experimental demand forecasting support system were traced and analyzed. Users adopted a wide variety of strategies when choosing a statistical forecasting...
Goodwin, P, Lee, WY, Fildes, RA, Nikolopoulos, K, Lawrence, M
A study of short-term forecasting in UK supply chain companies has revealed that some companies make limited use of the facilities that are available in the statistical forecasting software that they...
Second consensus on medical treatment of metastatic breast cancer (2006)
Beslija, S., Bonneterre, J., Burstein, H., Cocquyt, V., Gnant, M., Goodwin, P., ...
The present consensus manuscript defines evidence-based recommendations for state-of-the-art treatment of metastatic breast cancer depending on disease-associated and biologic variables.
Second consensus on medical treatment of metastatic breast cancer (2006)
Beslija, S., Bonneterre, J., Burstein, H., Cocquyt, V., Gnant, M., Goodwin, P., ...
The present consensus manuscript defines evidence-based recommendations for state-of-the-art treatment of metastatic breast cancer depending on disease-associated and biologic variables.
Soft measures - soft options or smart choice? (2005)
Anable, J., Kirkbride, A., Sloman, L., Newson, C., Cairns, S., Goodwin, P.
In recent years, there has been growing interest in a range of transport policy initiatives which are now widely described as ‘soft measures’. Soft measures usually seek to give better...
On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on forecasting support systems. (2005)
Fildes, RA, Goodwin, P, Lawrence, M, Nikolopoulos, K
Forecasting at the Stock Keeping Unit (SKU) disaggregate level in order to support operations management has proved a very difficult task. The levels of accuracy achieved have major consequences for...
Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors (2004)
There are many empirical studies on the estimation of values of travel time savings (VTTS), with varying degrees of rigour and relevance, mostly based on the observation that travellers are prepared...
Smarter choices - changing the way we travel (2004)
Cairns, S., Sloman, L., Newson, C., Anable, J., Kirkbride, A., Goodwin, P.
Summary: In recent years, there has been growing interest in a range of initiatives, which are now widely described as 'soft' transport policy measures. These seek to give better information and...
Smarter choices – changing the way we travel. Case study reports (2004)
Anable, J., Kirkbride, A., Sloman, L., Newson, C., Cairns, S., Goodwin, P.
This report accompanies the following volume: Cairns S, Sloman L, Newson C, Anable J, Kirkbride A and Goodwin P (2004) Smarter Choices – Changing the Way We Travel. Report published by the...
Changing travel behaviour (2004)
Goodwin, P., Cairns, S., Dargay, J., Hanly, M., Parkhurst, G., Stokes, G., ...
TSU: The Transport Studies Unit, established since 1973 at Oxford University, was awarded the status of a designated research centre of the ESRC from 1994 to 2004. The research programme, initially...
The economic costs of road traffic congestion (2004)
The main cause of road traffic congestion is that the volume of traffic is too close to the maximum capacity of a road or network. Congestion in the UK is worse than many, perhaps most, other...
Elasticities of road traffic and fuel consumption with respect to price and income: a review (2004)
Goodwin, P., Dargay, J., Hanly, M.
This paper gives the main results of a literature review of new empirical studies, published since 1990, updating work on the effects of price and income on fuel consumption, traffic levels, and...
Valuing the small: counting the benefits (2004)
This paper contains part of a report commissioned by a consortium of organisations concerned with the successful development of sustainable transport strategies, and drafted by Professor Phil Goodwin...
Congestion charging in Central London: lessons learned (2004)
At the time of writing, the London newspapers are full of Ken Livingstone’s decision to go ahead with the expansion of the congestion charging zone westwards. The tone of the commentary is ‘a...
Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting. (2004)
Goodwin, P., Onkal-Atay, D., Thomson, M. E., Pollock, A. E., Macaulay, A.
The design features of forecasting support systems and their effectiveness. (2003)
Lawrence, M, Goodwin, P, Fildes, RA
Forecasts play a key role in the management of the supply chain. In most organisations such forecasts form part of an information system on which other functions such as scheduling, resource planning...
Consensus on medical treatment of metastatic breast cancer CECOG (2003)
BESLIJA, S, BONNETERRE, J, BURSTEIN, M, GNANT, P, GOODWIN, P, HEINEMAN, V, ...
This paper shows that, in terms of experimental design and ecological validity, the recent study by Hodgkinson et al. ([1999]) does not indicate that the framing bias is likely to be an important...
Enhancing strategy evaluation in scenario planning : a role for decision analysis. (2001)
Scenario planning can be a useful and attractive tool in strategic management. In a rapidly changing environment it can avoid the pitfalls of more traditional methods. Moreover, it provides a means...
McDonagh, S., Moss, J. P., Goodwin, P., Lee, R. T.
The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of different functional appliances on the soft tissues as assessed by cephalometry and optical surface scanning. Forty‐two patients were...
Battaglia, D.E., Goodwin, P., Klein, N.A., Soules, M.R.
To examine the effects of maternal ageing on the meiotic apparatus, we obtained oocytes from naturally cyding women in two age groups, including younger (aged 20–25 years) and older (aged 40–45...
Statistical correction of judgmental point forecasts and decisions
In many organizations point estimates labelled as [`]forecasts' are produced by human judgment rather than statistical methods. However, when these estimates are subject to asymmetric loss they are,...
Heuristics, biases and improvement strategies in judgmental time series forecasting
There is evidence that forecasts produced in business and other organizations often involve substantial elements of human judgment. In forming their judgments forecasters may have access to either...