Price Trends and Patterns in Technical Analysis: A Theoretical and Empirical Examination (2009)
Friesen, Geoffrey C, Weller, Paul, Dunham, Lee
While many technical trading rules are based upon patterns in asset prices, we lack convincing explanations of how and why these patterns arise, and why trading rules based on technical analysis are...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2007)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2007)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2007)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2007)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2007)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
The article examines contemporary claims of Islamophobia and religious discrimination against Muslims in the United Kingdom in the context of the broader dynamics of religious discrimination in...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2006)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
The article examines contemporary claims of Islamophobia and religious discrimination against Muslims in the United Kingdom in the context of the broader dynamics of religious discrimination in...
The article examines contemporary claims of Islamophobia and religious discrimination against Muslims in the United Kingdom in the context of the broader dynamics of religious discrimination in...
The Predictive Power of "Head-and-Shoulders" Price Patterns in the U.S. Stock Market (2006)
Savin, Gene, Weller, Paul, Zvingelis, Janis
We use the pattern recognition algorithm of Lo, Mamaysky, and Wang (2000) with some modifications to determine whether “head-and-shoulders” (HS) price patterns have predictive power for future...
Christopher Neely, Paul Weller, Robert Dittmar, Chris Neely, Paul Weller, Rob Dittmar
The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of...
Zur Problematik der paradental und gingival getragenen abnehmbaren Prothese. (1947)
Düsseldorf, Med. Ak., Diss. v. 10. Nov. 1947 (Nicht f. d. Austausch).
Unterkiefer-Osteomyelitis nach Kinnfurunkel / (1933)
Thesis (doctoral)--Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität zu Bonn, 1933.
Exchange Rate Bands and Realignments in a Stationary Stochastic Setting
The extent which exchange rate management can coexist with an independent monetary policy is examined in the context of a model with exchange rate bands. Using a Dornbusch model in which stochastic...
Solving Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems: A Qualitative Treatment with Economic Applications
We examine the effect of introducing stochastic shocks into a linear rational expectations model with saddlepoint dynamics generated by a forward looking asset price. We derive the fundamental...
Pharmacogenomics and Drug Development
Guo, Yingying, Shafer, Steven, Weller, Paul, Usuka, Jonathan, Peltz, Gary
It is generally anticipated that pharmacogenomic information will have a large impact on drug development and will facilitate individualized drug treatment. However, there has been relatively little...
Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target
Dean Corbae, Chris Neely, Paul Weller
We examine the effects of endogenously determined realignment expectations in a model of a target zone with sluggish price adjustment. We allow these expectations to be based on a policy rule that...
Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia
We formulate a stochastic, rational-expectations model of exchange rate determination, in which there are random shocks to the process of sluggish price adjustment. We examine the effects of imposing...
Technical trading rules in the European Monetary System
Christopher Neely, Paul Weller
Using the genetic programming methodology developed in Neely, Weller and Dittmar (1997), we find trading rules that generate significant excess returns for three of four EMS exchange rates over the...
Predictability in international asset returns: a reexamination
Christopher Neely, Paul Weller
This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset-return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We...
Technical analysis and central bank intervention
Christopher Neely, Paul Weller
This paper extends the genetic programming techniques developed in Neely, Weller and Dittmar (1997) to show that technical trading rules can make use of information about U.S. foreign exchange...
Currency Bubbles Which Affect Fundamentals: A Qualitative Treatment.
Miller, Marcus H, Weller, Paul
The authors analyze the effect of rational bubbles in the foreign exchange market, taking account of the interdependence between bubble paths and economic fundamentals. The risk of the bubble ending,...
Exchange Rate Bands with Price Inertia.
The authors formulate a stochastic rational-expectations model of exchange-rate determination in which there are random shocks to the process of sluggish price adjustment. They examine the effects of...
Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Has Mr. Greenspan Created a Bubble?
Marcus Miller, Paul Weller, Lei Zhang
No abstract.
Forward Exchange, Futures Trading, and Spot Price Variability: A General Equilibrium Approach.
The authors investigate the effect of opening a forward or futures market on spot price or real exchange rate variab ility in a two-agent, two-good, two-state, general-equilibrium model. This is...
Solving Stochastic Saddlepoint Systems: A Qualitative Treatment with Economic Applications
We examine the effect of introducing stochastic shocks into a linear rational expectations model with saddlepoint dynamics generated by a forward looking asset price. We derive the fundamental...
Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: Analysing the "Greenspan Put"
Marcus Miller, Paul Weller, Lei Zhang
When the risk premium in the US stock market fell substantially, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. An alternative explanation is that the observed risk...
Exchange Rate Bands and Realignments in a Stationary Stochastic Setting
The extent which exchange rate management can coexist with an independent monetary policy is examined in the context of a model with exchange rate bands. Using a Dornbusch model in which stochastic...
Currency Bonds, Target Zones and Cash Limits: Thresholds for Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Exchange rate behavior is analyzed in the context of a stochastic rational expectations model in which there are random shocks to the price setting mechanism and in which the authorities choose to...
Bhattacharya, Utpal, Weller, Paul
Using a portfolio balance model of exchange rate determination, this paper develops a theoretical explanation of why central banks do not make precise announcements of their exchange rate targets. In...
Endogenous Realignments and the Sustainability of a Target Zone
Corbae, P Dean, Neely, Christopher J, Weller, Paul
We examine the effects of endogenously determined realignment expectations in a model of a target zone with sluggish price adjustment. We allow these expectations to be based on a policy rule which...
Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach
Dittmar, Robert, Neely, Christopher J, Weller, Paul
We use genetic programming techniques to identify optimal technical trading rules. We find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to the rules for each of six...
Moral Hazard and the US Stock Market: The Idea of a 'Greenspan Put'
Miller, Marcus, Weller, Paul, Zhang, Lei
The risk premium in the US stock market has fallen far below its historic level, which Shiller (2000) attributes to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point...
In silico and in vitro pharmacogenetic analysis in mice
Guo, Yingying, Lu, Peng, Farrell, Erin, Zhang, Xun, Weller, Paul, Monshouwer, Mario, ...
Combining the experimental efficiency of a murine hepatic in vitro drug biotransformation system with in silico genetic analysis produces a model system that can rapidly analyze interindividual...
CURRENCY BANDS, TARGET ZONES, AND CASH LIMITS: THRESHOLDS FOR MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY
Target zones , Monetary policy , Fiscal policy , Exchange rates , Economic models ,
The Influence of Technology and Demand Conditions on Future Prices and Hedging
We examine the determination of spot and futures prices in rational expectations equilibrium in a model with three groups of agents, agricultural producers, processing firms and speculators. We find...
Limit Theorems on the Core of a Many Good Economy with Individual Risks.
The relationship between the core of an exchange economy and competitive equilibrium is well-known from the work of Debreu and Scarf (1963). If we define a group of individuals of the same type to be...
Financial Liberalisation, Asset Prices and Exchange Rates
This paper is one of four in this Working Paper Series, focusing on financial liberalisation, along with those of Kupiec, Driscoll and Blundell-Wignall and Browne. It surveys recent work, both...
Moral Hazard and the US Stockmarket: Analyzing the "Greenspan Put"
Marcus H. Miller, Paul Weller, Lei Zhang
When the risk premium in the US stock market fell far below its historic level, Shiller (2000) attributed this to a bubble driven by psychological factors. As an alternative explanation, we point out...
Understanding Our Drugs and Our Diseases
Guo, Yingying, Weller, Paul, Allard, John, Usuka, Jonathan, Masjedizadeh, Mohammad, Wu, Shao-Yong, ...
Analysis of mouse genetic models of human disease–associated traits has provided important insight into the pathogenesis of human disease. As one example, analysis of a murine genetic model of...
Is Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Profitable? A Genetic Programming Approach
Neely, Christopher, Weller, Paul, Dittmar, Rob
Using genetic programming techniques to find technical trading rules, we find strong evidence of economically significant out-of-sample excess returns to those rules for each of six exchange rates...
Predictability in International Asset Returns: A Reexamination
Neely, Christopher J., Weller, Paul
This paper argues that inferring long-horizon asset return predictability from the properties of vector autoregressive (VAR) models on relatively short spans of data is potentially unreliable. We...