THE VOLATILITY OF THE OUTPUT GAP IN THE G7 (2009)
Ray Barrell, Sylvia Gottschalk, James Mitchell, Patricia Oliver, Fdi All
Abstract: The decline in output volatility in the US has been variously ascribed to changes in the policy regime reflected in inflation volatility, improved stockholding and increased international...
An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period (2009)
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holl, Kateøina Šmídková
Abstract. We argue that the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of accession to the European Union and EMU can affect the growth rate of the economy in the medium term. We discuss the...
Fiscal policy action in the banking crisis (2009)
Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, Iana Liadze
Fiscal fine tuning has been out of fashion for several decades, but many serious politicians and academic economists are now calling for significant fiscal stimulus packages. Large and coordinated...
How Important are Automatic Stabilisers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment (2009)
Ray Barrell, Álvaro M. Pina, Karen Dury, Nigel Pain
In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilisers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking...
Financial crises, regulation and growth 1 (2008)
Ray Barrell, Ian Hurst, Simon Kirby
Abstract The paper discusses the possibility of a systemic banking crisis as a result of debt defaults. It looks at the vulnerability of the personal and business sectors to increases in borrowing...
The impact of EMU on growth in Europe 1 (2008)
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holl, Iana Liadze, Olga Pomerantz
Abstract Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the consequence of the new monetary and exchange rate arrangements, but it is necessary to...
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES AND SHORT- TERM FORECASTING OF CONSUMPTION 1 (2008)
Ali Al-eyd, Ray Barrell, E Philip Davis
Abstract: Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy...
Ray Barrell, Sylvia Gottschalk, Dawn Holl, Ehsan Khoman, Iana Liadze, Olga Pomerantz
andOlgaPomerantz
Monetary Union and the crunch in 2010 (2008)
Why did we set up EMU • A single currency removes barriers to competition and completes the internal market • A common currency reduces volatility and hence risk premia and raises equilibrium...
Ray Barrell, Karen Dury, Ian Hurst, Swp He
Given the increase in world economic integration we wish to examine whether there is a case for coordinating monetary policy across some of the major economies. In late 1998 and early 1999, US...
Choosing the Regime: Macroeconomic effects of UK entry Abstract into EMU 1 (2007)
The UK has to decide whether to join the other members of the EU in a monetary union. This choice depends in part on the outturns for the economy inside and outside EMU. The UK has chosen to target...
LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY AND CONVERGENCE WITHIN EUROPE: EAST GERMAN AND IRISH EXPERIENCE (2007)
The convergence of labour productivity within an economic area involves the closing of organisation, idea and object gaps. This process can be exogenous or endogenous. We provide evidence for both...
Ray Barrell, Karen Dury, Ian Hurst, Swp He
Taylor and others have argued that model stability requires interest rate policy rules have an inflation feedback parameter greater than one. In this paper we build an encompassing framework to...
Equilibrium Unemployment and Labour Market Flows in the UK 1 (2007)
San Domenico (fi, C° R. Barrell, R. Riley, Badia Fiesolana, Badia Fiesolana, Ray Barrell, ...
Abstract We argue that equilibrium unemployment has varies in the UK over the last twenty years, and that time series econometric methods have not always been suited to uncovering its evolution....
EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts (2007)
Ray Barrell, John Fitzgerald, Rebecca Riley
This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of the migration that followed the enlargement of the EU in May 2004. At that time the EU was expanded to include 10 New Member States (NMS)...
Globalisation and Technology Intensity as Determinants of Exports 1 (2007)
Ray Barrell, Olga Pomerantz, Dawn Holl, A Choy, Simon Kirby For
This paper augments traditional equations for estimating export demand with a measure of technology intensity of output, and several variables capturing the impact of regional integration and global...
Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8 (2006)
Tatiana Fic, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holl
New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical...
The role of financial markets ’ openness in the transmission of shocks in Europe 1 (2006)
Ali Al-eyd, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holl
In this paper we report the results of a series of internal and external shocks on the Euro Area, using the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. The differences in impacts across...
Costs of financial instability, household-sector balance sheets and consumption (2006)
Ray Barrell, E Philip Davis, Olga Pomerantz
Abstract: The literature on costs of financial instability tends to focus on fiscal costs and the impact on GDP of banking crises. In this paper we analyse the effect of a banking or currency crisis...
Alderman, Harold, Allen, Robert, Allingham, Michael, Altavilla, Carlo, Altenburg, Lutz, Anand, Paul, ...
Alderman, Harold, Allen, Robert, Allingham, Michael, Altavilla, Carlo, Altenburg, Lutz, Anand, Paul, ...
OIL PRICES AND THE WORLD ECONOMY 1 (2004)
Abstract Oil prices, associated with bouts of inflation and economic instability over the last 30 years, have been rising in recent months. We argue that the inflationary consequences of a rise in...
CONSUMPTION, FINANCIAL AND REAL WEALTH IN THE G-5 (2004)
Financial assets are generally chosen for encapsulating wealth effects in empirical work on aggregate consumption, but there is growing interest in tangible wealth, notably housing, as a potential...
Abstract: We estimate the impact of financial liberalisation on consumption in 7 major industrial countries, and find a marked shift in behaviour, notably a decline in short run income elasticities...
Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World, The UK and Monetary Union 1 (2003)
Ray Barrell, Ian Hurst, Tatiana Kirsanova
Abstract: The UK has to take a decision on EMU membership at some point, and the costs and benefits have to be evaluated. Different policy frameworks result in differing outcomes for the means and...
Fiscal and monetary policy frameworks have become increasingly popular as disenchantment with active stabilization policy has increased. Frameworks need to be designed to achieve targets efficiently...
Asymmetric economic structures across Europe may result in common shocks having asymmetric effects. In this paper we investigate whether the differences in the structure and dynamics that we observe...
How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment (2000)
http://www.iue.it/PUB/ECO2000-2.pdf
How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment (2000)
http://www.iue.it/PUB/ECO2000-2.pdf
How Important are Automatic Stabilizers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment (2000)
http://www.iue.it/PUB/ECO2000-2.pdf
Bin Ab, Ray Barrell, Álvaro M. Pina
In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilizers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking...
Equilibrium Unemployment and Labour Market Flows in the UK (1999)
http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-3.pdf
Analysing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regimes Using Deterministic and Stochastic Simulations (1999)
BARRELL, Ray, DURY, Karen, HURST, Ian
http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-37.pdf
Equilibrium Unemployment and Labour Market Flows in the UK (1999)
http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-3.pdf
Analysing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regimes Using Deterministic and Stochastic Simulations (1999)
BARRELL, Ray, DURY, Karen, HURST, Ian
http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-37.pdf
Equilibrium Unemployment and Labour Market Flows in the UK (1999)
http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-3.pdf
Analysing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regimes Using Deterministic and Stochastic Simulations (1999)
BARRELL, Ray, DURY, Karen, HURST, Ian
http://www.iue.it/ECO/WP-Texts/ECO99-37.pdf
Foreign Direct Investment and Exchange Rate Uncertainty in Imperfectly Competitive Industries
Ray Barrell, Stephen Hall, Sylvia Gottschalk
This paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the location of US foreign direct investment in Europe. We adopt a mean-variance approach to the standard q theory of...
Wage Moderation Policy in Germany
Ray Barrell, Bettina Becker, Sylvia Gottschalk
In this paper we briefly discuss the current condition of the German economy and the proposals from the government in March 2003 to reform labour markets. These reforms involve various measures to...
Estimates of Fundamental Real Exchange Rates for the Five EU Pre-Accession Countries
Katerina Smidkova, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland
Are there indications of real exchange rate misalignment in the case of the five pre-accession countries? Will stable real exchange rates, required by two of the Maastricht criteria, be in line with...
Designing and Choosing Macroeconomic Frameworks: The Position of the UK after Four Years of the Euro
Fiscal and monetary policy frameworks have become increasingly popular as disenchantment with active stabilization policy has increased. Frameworks need to be designed to achieve targets efficiently...
The Volatility of the Output Gap in the G7
Ray Barrell, Sylvia Gottschalk
The decline in output volatility in the US has been variously ascribed to changes in the policy regime reflected in inflation volatility, improved stockholding and increased international...
Consumption, Financial and Real Wealth in the G-5 (revised December 2004)
Financial assets are generally chosen for encapsulating wealth effects in empirical work on aggregate consumption, but there is growing interest in tangible wealth, notably housing, as a potential...
Oil Prices and the World Economy
Oil prices have been associated with bouts of inflation and economic instability over the last 30 years, and they have been rising in recent months. We argue that the inflationary consequences of a...
Costs of Financial Instability, Household-Sector Balance Sheets and Consumption
Ray Barrell, Olga Pomerantz, E.Philip Davis
The literature on costs of financial instability tends to focus on fiscal costs and the impact on GDP of banking crises. In this paper we analyse the effect of a banking or currency crisis on...
Financial Liberalisation, Consumption and Wealth Effects in 7 OECD Countries
We estimate the impact of financial liberalisation on consumption in 7 major industrial countries, and find a marked shift in behaviour, notably a decline in short run income elasticities and a rise...
Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7
The Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) is the real exchange rate which produces a current account that is exactly matched by equilibrium medium-term capital flows. This paper sets out a...
Fiscal Spillovers and Trade Relations in Europe
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze, Olga Pomerantz
This paper explores the impact of openness, as measured by import penetration, on the size and duration of fiscal multipliers and spillovers across European Union members. The analysis is embedded in...
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Ian Hurst
The US current account deficit is in excess of 6 per cent of GDP, and is leading to an accumulation of debts. We use NiGEM to evaluate the causes of the decline, and suggest that domestic absorption...
EU enlargement and migration: Assessing the macroeconomic impacts
Ray Barrell, Rebecca Riley, Fitzgerald, J.
This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of the migration that followed the enlargement of the EU in May 2004. At that time the EU was expanded to include 10 New Member States (NMS)...
Import Growth, Globalisation and the Impact of Trade Liberalisation
Ray Barrell, Iana Liadze, Olga Pomerantz
Abstract Liberalisation of the trading environment, through regional integration and the formation of WTO, is shown to increase trade growth relative to GDP. The impact of trade liberalisation...
Globalisation and Technology Intensity as Determinants of Exports
This paper augments traditional equations for estimating export demand with a measure of technology intensity of output, and several variables capturing the impact of regional integration and global...
Vers une nouvelle politique économique en Europe ?
Ray Barrell, Paolo Bosi, Paolo Onofri, Odile Chagny, Gael Dupont, Thierry Latreille, ...
This paper studies import demand in ten European countries over the period 1970-95, and our objective is to investigate whether the process of European integration has affected imports. We provide...
An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period
Barrell, Ray, Dawn Holland, Nigel Pain
This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia....
Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World, the UK and Monetary Union
Barrell, Ray, Ian Hurst, Tatiana Kirsanova
The UK has to take a decision on EMU membership at some point, and the costs and benefits have to be evaluated. Different policy frameworks result in differing outcomes for the means and variances of...
Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria.
This paper examines the implications of fiscal policy and growing debt stocks for the economy. The authors construct an extended Mundell-Fleming model, along the lines of W. H. Buiter and M. Miller...
Macroeconomic policy in Europe: experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses
Barrell, Ray, Becker, Bettina, Byrne, Joseph, Gottschalk, Sylvia, Hurst, Ian, Van Welsum, Desiree
EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts
Ray Barrell, John FitzGerald, Rebecca Riley
This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of the migration that followed the enlargement of the EU in May 2004. At that time the EU was expanded to include 10 New Member States (NMS)...
It is common to observe that demand elasticities in trade equations for imports are implausibly large, and that they differ between countries. Both of these present us with problems, as they imply...
Entry rates and risks of the misalignment in EU8
Tatiana Fic, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland
New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical...
Catching-up of East German Labour Productivity in the 1990s
We provide empirical evidence for exogenous and endogenous catching-up of East German labour productivity to West German levels. We argue that labour productivity in East Germany has caught up faster...
Learning about monetary union: An analysis of bounded rational learning in European labor markets
Barrell, Ray, Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, Hall, Stephen, Garratt, Anthony
Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Katerina Smidkova
Are there indications of the real exchange rate misalignment in the case of five pre-accession countries? Will in these countries stable real exchange rates, required by the two of Maastrich...
An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Katerina Smidkova
We argue that the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of accession to the European Union and EMU can affect the growth rate of the economy in the medium term. Empirical analysis is...
An Econometric Macro-model of Transition: Policy Choices in the Pre-Accession Period
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Nigel Pain, Mihaly Andras Kovacs, Zoltan Jakab, Katerina Smidkova, ...
This paper analyses current policy choices facing the candidate countries for EU accession using newly developed econometric macromodels of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and Estonia....
Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe.
The extent of multinational activity and the share of world trade accounted for by multinational enterprises has risen steadily over the past two decades. This has led to renewed interest within...
Asymmetric Labour Markets in a Converging Europe: Do Differences Matter?
Asymmetric economic structures across Europe may result in common shocks having asymmetric effects. In this paper we investigate whether the differences in the structure and dynamics that we observe...
An Encompassing Framework for Evaluating Simple Monetary Policy Rules
Ray Barrell, Karen Dury, Ian Hurst
Taylor and others have argued that model stability requires interest rate policy rules have an inflation feedback parameter greater than one. In this paper we build an encompassing framework to...
Labour Productivity and Convergence within Europe: East German and Irish Experience
The convergence of labour productivity within an economic area involves the closing of organisation, idea and object gaps. This process can be exogenous or endogenous. We provide evidence for both...
An Empirical Analysis of Monetary Policy Choices in the Pre-EMU Period
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Kateøina Šmídková
We argue that the choice of exchange rate regime in the process of accession to the European Union and EMU can affect the growth rate of the economy in the medium term. We discuss the effects of...
Designing and Choosing Macroeconomic Frameworks: The Position of the UK after 4 years of the Euro
Fiscal and monetary policy framework have become increasingly popular as disenchantment with active stabilisation policy has increased. In order to maximise the gains in terms of welfare and output...
Macroeconomic Policy in Europe: Experiments with monetary responses and fiscal impulses
Ray Barrell, Bettina Becker, Joseph P Byrne, Sylvia Gottschalk, Ian Hurst, Desirée Van Welsum
In this paper we discuss the main model properties of NiGEM, the National Institute’s large-scale macroeconometric model. NiGEM is a ‘New-Keynesian’ model where agents display forward looking...
Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8
Tatiana Fic, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland
New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, both from a theoretical...
Ray Barrell, Karen Dury, Ian Hurst
Given the increase in world economic integration we wish to examine whether there is a case for coordinating monetary policy across some of the major economies. In late 1998 and early 1999, US...
Choosing the regime: macroeconomic effects of UK entry into EMU
The UK has to decide whether to join the other members of the EU in a monetary union. This choice depends in part on the outturns for the economy inside and outside EMU. The UK has chosen to target...
Openness, integration and transition: prospects and policies for economies in transition
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Nigel Pain
We survey different strategies in the transition process, and investigate their role in growth prospects. Openness, exchange rate regimes and approaches to trade and capital market liberalisation are...
How Important are Automatic Stabilisers in Europe? A Stochastic Simulation Assessment
In this paper we formalize budgetary stabilisers as a set of simple policy rules, and assess their operation in an uncertain environment by performing stochastic simulations in a forward-looking...
Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World: The UK and Monetary Union
Ray Barrell, Ian Hurst, Tatiana Kirsanova
The UK has to take a decision on EMU membership at some point, and the costs and benefits have to be evaluated. Different policy frameworks result in differing outcomes for the means and variances of...
Economic Integration and Openness in Europe and East Asia
The paper discusses European and East Asian Integration, and makes some comparisons between developments in the two regions. We stress that the process of integration is a political process as well...
The Impacts of Capital Adequacy Requirements on Emerging Markets
Ray Barrell, Sylvia Gottschalk
We investigate the macroeconomic impacts of changes in capital adequacy requirements, as developed in the Basel Capital Accords, on Brazil and Mexico. Changes in the capital adequacy requirements of...
Ali Al-Eyd, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland
In this paper we report the results of a series of internal and external shocks on the Euro Area, using the National Institute’s Global Econometric Model, NiGEM. The differences in impacts across...
Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the G7
Barrell, Ray, Wren-Lewis, Simon
The Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER) is the real exchange rate which produces a current account that is exactly matched by equilibrium medium-term capital flows. This paper sets out a...
An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Foreign Direct Investment.
This paper constructs a theoretical model of foreign direct investment and examines the extent to which the model can explain the level of outward direct investment by U.S. companies over the last...
Real Exchange Rates, Agglomerations, and Irreversibilities: Macroeconomic Policy and FDI in EMU.
Fiscal policy in EMU has to be evaluated in the light of the changing nature of capital mobility in Europe and its effects on growth. Most arguments about the effects of fiscal policy in EMU assume...
A cross-country comparison of the demand for labour in Europe
Ray Barrell, Nigel Pain, Garry Young
J23, E24, C30,
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF CONSUMPTION
Ali Al-Eyd, Ray Barrell, E. Philip Davis
Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making....
This paper describes the National Institute of Economic and Social Research’s (NIESR)approach to the analysis of the implementation of the Lisbon Agenda. It forms the background to the European...
Financial crises, regulation and growth
Ray Barrell, Ian Hurst, Simon Kirby
The paper discusses the possibility of a systemic banking crisis as a result of debt defaults, putting this risk and its impact on the economy into recent historical context. It looks at the...
The impact of EMU on growth in Europe
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze, Olga Pomerantz
Output growth in the Euro Area has been disappointing since the formation of EMU. This may be the consequence of the new monetary and exchange rate arrangements, but it is necessary to remove the...
EU Enlargement and Migration: Assessing the Macroeconomic Impacts
Ray Barrell, John FitzGerald, Rebecca Riley
This paper considers the macroeconomic effects of the migration that followed the enlargement of the EU in May 2004. At that time the EU was expanded to include 10 New Member States (NMS)...
Entry rates and the risks of misalignment in the EU8
Fic, Tatiana, Barrell, Ray, Holland, Dawn
New member states will join the EMU in the coming years. Setting the central parity at which they will join has been and will be a challenging task, as there is a considerable amount of uncertainty,...
Fiscal Targets, Automatic Stabilisers and their Effects on Output
Ray Barrell, Ian Hurst, Álvaro Pina
In this paper we review the European macroeconomic policy framework, and address the issue of setting safe deficit targets - targets that make it very unlikely that a country exceeds the 3 per cent...
Equity prices are major sources of shocks to the world economy and channels for propagation of these shocks. We seek to calibrate macroeconomic effects of falls in share prices and assess appropriate...
EQUITY PRICES AND THE REAL ECONOMY – A VECTOR ERROR-CORRECTION APPROACH
We assess the impact of equity prices on the level of output in the Europe Union economies and the US using Vector Error Correction (VECM) time series techniques. The distinction between impacts in...
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDICES AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF CONSUMPTION
ALI AL-EYD, RAY BARRELL, E. PHILIP DAVIS
There is growing interest in examining the short-term link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a...
Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland, Iana Liadze, Olga Pomerantz
European growth, Skills, Volatility, Panel data techniques, E32, O43,
ESTIMATES OF FUNDAMENTAL REAL EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE FIVE EU PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES
Kateřina Šmídková, Ray Barrell, Dawn Holland
Are there indications of real exchange rate misalignment in the case of the five pre-accession countries? Will stable real exchange rates, required by two of the Maastricht criteria, be in line with...
Productivity, Innovation and Economic Performance
Barrell,Ray, Mason,Geoff, O'Mahony,Mary
Productivity and its determinants is a prominent feature in economic debate. Output per person or per capita is still the most influential measure of the prosperity of nations. Productivity depends...
Innovation, Investment and the Diffusion of Technology in Europe
This volume brings together leading European scholars and policy-makers to address the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) and its effects on globalisation, growth and European...
The analysis of the processes determining unemployment in an open economy has been considerably advanced by the work of Layard, Nickell and Jackman in their book Unemployment: Macroeconomic...
Callan, Tim, Barrell, Ray, Barrett, Alan, Casserly, Noel, Convery, Frank, Goggin, Jean, ...
Introduction The context for this year's Budget differs sharply from most of those in the past decade and a half. The global economy has been buffeted by crises in financial markets. Oil prices, even...