Robert Fildes

Optimal forecasting model selection and data characteristics (2007)

Fildes, Robert, Madden, Gary, Tan, Joachim

Selection protocols such as Box–Jenkins, variance analysis, method switching and rules-based forecasting measure data characteristics and incorporate them in models to generate best forecasts....

Making progress in forecasting (2006)

Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established "to bridge the gap between theory and practice." Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now the...

Making Progress in Forecasting (2006)

Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now...

Making Progress in Forecasting (2006)

Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now...

Making Progress in Forecasting (2006)

Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert

Twenty-five years ago, the International Institute of Forecasters was established “to bridge the gap between theory and practice.” Its primary vehicle was the Journal of Forecasting and is now...

∗ This paper has been prepared for possible inclusion in the special issue of the International Journal of Forecasting on The Use of Judgement in Forecasting, to be edited by Paul Goodwin (2006)

Philip Hans Franses, Henk Don, Dick Van Dijk, Robert Fildes, Teun Kloek, Chris Sims

In business and in macroeconomics it is common practice to use econometric models to generate forecasts. These models can take any degree of sophistication. Sometimes it is felt by an expert that the...

Telecommunications Demand Forecasting - A Review (2002)

Robert Fildes

The last decade has seen rapid advances in telecommunications technology in an increasingly deregulated and competitive market place. Companies operating in these various markets have relied on...

Internal OR Consulting : effective practice in a changing environment. (2000)

Fildes , Robert, Ranyard, John C.

Around 1970 some 96 percent of the largest Fortune-500 companies had established OR groups. The recessions of the '70s and '80s led many to close their groups. In 1993, the UK OR Society, disturbed...

On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods (1995)

Armstrong, J. Scott, Fildes, Robert

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment(GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based...

On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons among Forecasting Methods (1995)

J. Scott Armstrong, Robert Fildes

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based...

Publishing Standards for Research on Forecasting (editorial) (1986)

Armstrong, J. Scott, Dagum, Estella Bee, Fildes, Robert, Makridakis, Spyros

When we first began publication of the International Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that were used by other journals and also examined the research on scientific publishing. Our...

Levels, Differences and ECMs - Principles for Improved Econometric Forecasting

P. Geoffrey Allen, Robert Fildes

Unit-root testing can be a preliminary step in model development, an intermediate step, or an end in itself. Some researchers have questioned the value of any unit-root and cointegration testing,...

The state of macroeconomic forecasting

Robert Fildes, Herman Stekler

Macroeconomic forecasts are used extensively in industry and government The historical accuracy of US and UK forecasts are examined in the light of different approaches to evaluating macro forecasts....

Good and Bad Judgment in Forecasting: Lessons from Four Companies

Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin

In their ongoing investigation into corporate forecasting practices, Robert Fildes and Paul Goodwin have uncovered evidence of excessive use of judgmental adjustment to statistical forecasts. In this...

Consumer decision making, E-commerce and perceived risks

Robert Fildes, Alastair Robertson

This article studies how adoption and usage behaviour of the Internet and online shopping, respectively influence the preference to use electronic commerce to purchase different types of products. We...

Optimal forecasting model selection and data characteristics

Robert Fildes, Gary Madden, Joachim Tan

Selection protocols such as Box-Jenkins, variance analysis, method switching and rules-based forecasting measure data characteristics and incorporate them in models to generate best forecasts. These...

Correspondence On the Selection of Error Measures for Comparisons Among Forecasting Methods

JS Armstrong, Robert Fildes

Clements and Hendry (1993) proposed the Generalized Forecast Error Second Moment (GFESM) as an improvement to the Mean Square Error in comparing forecasting performance across data series. They based...

Publishing Standards for Research in Forecasting (Editorial)

JS Armstrong, Estella Bee Dagum, Robert Fildes, Spyros Makridakis

When we first began publication of the Journal of Forecasting, we reviewed policies that were used by other journals and also examined the research on scientific publishing. Our findings were...

Optimal forecasting model selection and data characteristics

Fildes, Robert, Madden, Gary, Tan, Joachim

Selection protocols such as Box–Jenkins, variance analysis, method switching and rules-based forecasting measure data characteristics and incorporate them in models to generate best forecasts....

Household technology acceptance heterogeneity in computer adoption

Alastair Robertson, Didier Soopramanien, Robert Fildes

Technology policy analysis and implementation relies on knowledge and understanding of the "adoption gap" in information technologies among different groups of consumers. Factors that explain the...

LEVELS, DIFFERENCES AND ECMS - PRINCIPLES FOR IMPROVED ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING

Allen, P. Geoffrey, Fildes, Robert

An avalanche of articles has described the testing of a time series for the presence of unit roots. However, economic model builders have disagreed on the value of testing and how best to...

Influence of user participation on DSS use and decision accuracy

Lawrence, Michael, Goodwin, Paul, Fildes, Robert

The paper reports a study of the impact on user satisfaction and forecast accuracy of user involvement in the design of a forecasting decision support system (FDSS). Two versions of an FDSS were...

The choice of a forecasting model

Fildes, Robert, Lusk, Edward J

The major purpose of studies of forecasting accuracy is to help forecasters select the [`]best' forecasting method. This paper examines accuracy studies in particular that of Makridakis et al. [20]...

Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning

Fildes, Robert, Goodwin, Paul, Lawrence, Michael, Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

Demand forecasting is a crucial aspect of the planning process in supply-chain companies. The most common approach to forecasting demand in these companies involves the use of a computerized...

The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts

Syntetos, Aris A., Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, Boylan, John E., Fildes, Robert, Goodwin, Paul

Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these...

Commentary on “Rethinking the Ways We Forecast”

Paul Goodwin, Robert Fildes

Goodwin and Fildes comment on the issue 14 Foresight article by Orrell and McSharry, A Systems Approach to Forecasting, part of a special feature entitled Rethinking the Ways We Forecast Copyright...