Among the former are Time on the Cross: The Economics of (2009)
Robert W. Fogel, Robert W. Fogel
Number 76 New findings about trends in life expectation and chronic diseases: The implications for health costs and pensions
Forecasting the Demand for Health Care in OECD Nations and China (2003)
This article argues that the nations of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) are facing a potential disaster: intergenerational conflicts between the large number...
Nuevos enfoques en la historia económica de España y de América Latina. Homenaje a Robert W. Fogel y Douglas C. North, Premios Nobel de Economía 1993
Changes in the Physiology of Aging during the Twentieth Century
One way to demonstrate how remarkable changes in the process of aging have been is to compare health over the life cycles of 3 cohorts. For the first cohort, born between 1835 and 1845 (the Civil War...
Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth after World War II from the Perspective of 2004
At the close of World War II, there were wide-ranging debates about the future of economic developments. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic....
Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives
In 2002, the Chinese Communist Party announced a goal of quadrupling per capita income by the year 2020. Starting at income levels of the year 2000, this would require a growth rate of 7.2 percent...
High Performing Asian Economies
To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income...
Changes in the Disparities in Chronic Disease during the Course of the Twentieth Century
Longitudinal studies support the proposition that the extent and severity of chronic conditions in middle and late ages are to a large extent the outcome of environmental insults at early ages,...
Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004
At the close of World War II, the future of economic development was the subject of wide-ranging debates. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic....
Some Notes on the Scientific Methods of Simon Kuznets
This paper discusses the scientific methods that guided the economic research of Simon Kuznets, with particular stress on his approach to measurement and theory. The paper closes with the...
Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality Since 1700: Some Additional Preliminary Findings
This paper is an extensive revision and expansion of Working Paper No.1402. It centers on a new time series of life expectations in the U.S. since 1720, which has been constructed from the NBER/CPE...
The six principal findings of this paper are as follows: (1) crisis mortality accounted for less than 5 percent of total mortality in England prior to 1800 and the elimination of crisis mortality...
Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease, and Death
Robert W. Fogel, Larry T. Wimmer
This paper summarizes a collaborative project designed to create a public-use tape suitable for a prospective study of aging among a random sample of 39,616 men mustered into 331 companies of the...
Problems in Modeling Complex Dynamic interactions: The Political Realignment of the 1850s
The aim of this paper is to break open the stochastic component of a maj or political change and to show that what seems like the product of purely chance events is the particular conjunction of...
This paper argues that the secular decline in mortality, which began during the eighteenth century, is still in progress and will probably continue for another century or more. The evolutionary...
Capitalism and Democracy in 2040: Forecasts and Speculations
While the economies of the fifteen countries that were in the European Union (EU15) in 2000 will continue to grow from now until 2040, they will not be able to match the surges in growth that will...
Reconsidering Expectations of Economic Growth After World War II from the Perspective of 2004
At the close of World War II, the future of economic development was the subject of wide-ranging debates. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic....
Forecasting the Demand for Health Care in OECD Nations and China
This article argues that the nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are facing a potential disaster: intergenerational conflicts between the large number of...
Forecasting the Cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040
One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that...
The Economics of Mortality in North America, 1650-1910: A Description ofa Research Project
Robert W. Fogel, Stanley L. Engerman, James Trussell, Roderick Floud, Clayne L. Pope
Robert W. Fogel, Stanley L. Engerman, Roderick Floud, Richard H. Steckel, James Trussell
This paper is a progress report on the usefulness of data on physical height for the analysis of long-ten changes in the level of nutrition and health on economic, social, and demographic behavior....
Nutrition and the Decline in Mortality Since 1700: Some Preliminary Findings
This paper uses the data in the NBER/CPE pilot sample of genealogies to create a new time series on life expectation in the U.S. since 1720. After attaining remarkably high levels toward the end of...
This paper sketches a theory of the secular decline in morbidity and mortality that takes account of changes in human physiology since 1700. The synergism between technological and physiological...
Simon S. Kuznets: April 30, 1901-July 9, 1985
This paper, prepared for the Biographical Memoirs of the National Academy of Sciences, presents an account of the scholarly career of Simon S. Kuznets. Among the issues considered are his...
Secular Trends in Physiological Capital: Implications for Equity in Health Care
Over the past three centuries there has been a rapid accumulation of physiological capital in OECD countries. Enhanced physiological capital is tied to long-term reduction in environmental hazards...
Around the world, as in the United States, concern is growing about who gets health care. Individuals from different socioeconomic backgrounds face distressingly different prospects of living a...
The program project Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease and Death investigates how socioeconomic and environmental factors in early life can shape health and work levels in later life....
FORECASTING THE DEMAND FOR HEALTH CARE IN OECD NATIONS AND CHINA
This article argues that the nations of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are facing a potential disaster: intergenerational conflicts between the large number of...
The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth
This paper, divided into seven sections, considers the development of economic growth theory in light of the spectacular advances of the economies of China, India, and Southeast Asia. Section 1...
Prize Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, December 9, 1993
I was born in New York City in 1926, four years after my parents and my brother migrated to the United States from the city of Odessa in Russia. Although they arrived in New York penniless, my...
Interview with Nobel Prize Laureate Robert W. Fogel
Interview with Professor Robert W. Fogel at the 1st Meeting of Laureates in Economic Sciences in Lindau, Germany, September 1-4, 2004. Interviewer is freelance journalist Marika Griehsel.
Forecasting the cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040
One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that...