The Financial Bubble Experiment: advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations (2009)
Sornette, Didier, Fedorovsky, Maxim, Reimann, Stefan, Woodard, Hilary, Woodard, Ryan, Zhou, Wei-Xing
This is the first delivery of the Financial Bubble Experiment that our group has recently launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/})
Scaling and memory in the non-poisson process of limit order cancelation (2009)
Ni, Xiao-Hui, Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Gu, Gao-Feng, Ren, Fei, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The order submission and cancelation processes are two crucial aspects in the price formation of stocks traded in order-driven markets. We investigate the dynamics of order cancelation by studying...
Qian, Meng-Cen, Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these studies map the financial markets into one...
Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles (2009)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier, Woodard, Ryan, Bastiaensen, Ken, Cauwels, Peter
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of...
We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals $\tau$ between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold $q>0$ or below a negative threshold $q
The components of empirical multifractality in financial returns (2009)
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as...
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Tan, Qun-Zhao
Massive multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) are very popular in China, which provides a potential platform for scientific research. We study the online-offline activities of avatars in an...
Modified detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical mode decomposition (2009)
Qian, Xi-Yuan, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Gu, Gao-Feng
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a simple but very efficient method for investigating the power-law long-term correlations of non-stationary time series, in which a detrending step is...
Liu, Chuang, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Yuan, Wei-Kang
We study the statistical properties of the network constructed from the energy dissipation rate time series in the three dimensional developed turbulence using the visibility algorithm. The degree...
Empirical regularities of opening call auction in Chinese stock market (2009)
Gu, Gao-Feng, Ren, Fei, Ni, Xiao-Hui, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We study the statistical regularities of opening call auction using the ultra-high-frequency data of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. The distribution of the relative...
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Ren, Fei, Gu, Gao-Feng, Tan, Qun-Zhao, Zhou, Wei-Xing
Massive multiplayer online role-playing games (MMORPGs) are very popular in past few years. The profit of an MMORPG company is proportional to how many users registered, and the instant number of...
Long-term correlations and multifractal analysis of trading volumes for Chinese stocks (2009)
Mu, Guo-Hua, Chen, Wei, Kertész, János, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We investigate the temporal correlations and multifractal nature of trading volume of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We find that the trading volume exhibit...
Scaling and memory in the return intervals of realized volatility (2009)
Ren, Fei, Gu, Gao-Feng, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We perform return interval analysis of 1-min {\em{realized volatility}} defined by the sum of absolute high-frequency intraday returns for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and 22...
Liu, Chuang, Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Ren, Fei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We study the statistical properties of return intervals $r$ between successive energy dissipation rates above a certain threshold $Q$ in three-dimensional fully developed turbulence. We find that the...
Ni, Xiao-Hui, Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The dynamics of a complex system is usually recorded in the form of time series, which can be studied through its visibility graph from a complex network perspective. We investigate the visibility...
Mu, Guo-Hua, Chen, Wei, Kertész, János, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The distribution of trade sizes and trading volumes are investigated based on the limit order book data of 22 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. We...
Multiscaling behavior in the volatility return intervals of Chinese indices (2008)
We investigate the probability distribution of the return intervals $\tau$ between successive 1-min volatilities of two Chinese indices exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)...
Emergence of long memory in stock volatilities from a modified Mike-Farmer model (2008)
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the inverse cubic law of returns...
Statistical properties of world investment networks (2008)
Song, Dong-Ming, Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We have performed a detailed investigation on the world investment networks constructed from the Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS) data of the International Monetary Fund, ranging from...
Multifractal analysis of the fracture surfaces of foamed polypropylene/polyethylene blends (2008)
Liu, Chuang, Jiang, Xiu-Lei, Liu, Tao, Zhao, Ling, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Yuan, Wei-Kang
The two-dimensional multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis is applied to reveal the multifractal properties of the fracture surfaces of foamed polypropylene/polyethylene blends at different...
Statistical properties of volatility return intervals of Chinese stocks (2008)
Ren, Fei, Guo, Liang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The statistical properties of the return intervals $\tau_q$ between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold $q$ are carefully studied. The...
Detrended fluctuation analysis of intertrade durations (2008)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the...
On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model (2008)
Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement...
Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks (2008)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on...
Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis for two nonstationary signals (2008)
It is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences that two variables, recorded temporally or spatially in a complex system, are cross-correlated and possess multifractal features. We propose a new...
Empirical shape function of limit-order books in the Chinese stock market (2008)
Gu, Gao-Feng, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We have analyzed the statistical probabilities of limit-order book (LOB) shape through building the book using the ultra-high-frequency data from 23 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock...
Direct evidence for inversion formula in multifractal financial volatility measure (2008)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The inversion formula for conservative multifractal measures was unveiled mathematically a decade ago, which is however not well tested in real complex systems. In this Letter, we propose to verify...
Multifractal analysis of Chinese stock volatilities based on partition function approach (2008)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We have performed detailed multifractal analysis on the minutely volatility of two indexes and 1139 stocks in the Chinese stock markets based on the partition function approach. The partition...
Ji, Li-Jun, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Liu, Hai-feng, Gong, Xin, Wang, Fu-Chen, Yu, Zun-Hong
We perform rescaled range analysis upon the signals measured by Dual Particle Dynamical Analyzer in gas-liquid two-phase turbulent jets. A novel rescaled range analysis is proposed to investigate...
Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market (2007)
Gu, Gao-Feng, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction,...
Niu, Miao-Ren, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Yan, Zhuo-Yong, Guo, Qing-Hua, Liang, Qin-Feng, Wang, Fu-Chen, ...
On a laboratory-scale testing platform of impinging entrained-flow gasifier with four opposed burners, the flame images for diesel combustion and gasification process were measured with a single...
Intraday pattern in bid-ask spreads and its power-law relaxation for Chinese A-share stocks (2007)
We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily...
Relaxation dynamics of aftershocks after large volatility shocks in the SSEC index (2007)
The relaxation dynamics of aftershocks after large volatility shocks are investigated based on two high-frequency data sets of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index. Compared with...
Empirical distributions of Chinese stock returns at different microscopic timescales (2007)
Gu, Gao-Feng, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We study the distributions of event-time returns and clock-time returns at different microscopic timescales using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the limit-order books of 23 stocks traded in...
Universal price impact functions of individual trades in an order-driven market (2007)
The trade size $\omega$ has direct impact on the price formation of the stock traded. Econophysical analyses of transaction data for the US and Australian stock markets have uncovered market-specific...
Qian, Xi-Yuan, Song, Fu-Tie, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We investigate the behavior of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index for the period from 1990:12 to 2007:06 using an unconstrained two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an...
Multifractality in stock indexes: Fact or fiction? (2007)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
Multifractal analysis and extensive statistical tests are performed upon intraday minutely data within individual trading days for four stock market indexes (including HSI, SZSC, S&P500, and NASDAQ)...
Statistical significance of rich-club phenomena in complex networks (2007)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
We propose that the rich-club phenomena in complex networks should be defined in the spirit of bootstrapping, in which a null model is adopted to assess the statistical significance of the rich-club...
Niu, Miao-Ren, Liang, Qin-Feng, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Wang, Fu-Chen, Yu, Zun-Hong
This paper has been withdrawn by the authors due to a fatal error in the analysis. The manuscript was submitted to Chemical Engineering Science. To clarify the situation, we copy the main comment...
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price...
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Guo, Liang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation...
A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003-2006 (2007)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We tested 45 indices and common stocks traded in the South African stock market for the possible existence of a bubble over the period from Jan. 2003 to May 2006. A bubble is defined by a...
Gu, Gao-Feng, Chen, Wei, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different...
Scale invariant multiplier and multifractality of absolute returns in stock markets (2006)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing
The statistical properties of the multipliers of the absolute returns are investigated using one-minute high-frequency data of financial time series. The multiplier distribution is found to be...
Detrended fluctuation analysis for fractals and multifractals in higher dimensions (2006)
One-dimensional detrended fluctuation analysis (1D DFA) and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (1D MF-DFA) are widely used in the scaling analysis of fractal and multifractal time series...
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We have recently introduced the ``thermal optimal path'' (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust...
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Sornette, Didier
Song, Havlin and Makse (2005) have recently used a version of the box-counting method, called the node-covering method, to quantify the self-similar properties of 43 cellular networks: the minimal...
Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets (2006)
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard...
Inversion formula of multifractal energy dissipation in 3D fully developed turbulence (2006)
Xu, Jian-Liang, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Liu, Hai-Feng, Gong, Xin, Wang, Fu-Cheng, Yu, Zun-Hong
The concept of inverse statistics in turbulence has attracted much attention in the recent years. It is argued that the scaling exponents of the direct structure functions and the inverse structure...
Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US? (2005)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of...
Fundamental Factors versus Herding in the 2000-2005 US Stock Market and Prediction (2005)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to our previous theory of herding to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of Rational...
Process Flow Diagram of an Ammonia Plant as a Complex Network (2005)
Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, Zhou, Wei-Xing, Xu, Bin, Yuan, Wei-Kang
Complex networks have attracted increasing interests in almost all disciplines of natural and social sciences. However, few efforts have been afforded in the field of chemical engineering. We present...
Self-fulfilling Ising Model of Financial Markets (2005)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained...
Sornette, Didier, Zhou, Wei-Xing
Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price...
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Li, Bin, Liu, Tao, Cao, Gui-Ping, Zhao, Ling, Yuan, Wei-Kang
We have investigated the fractal characteristics and shape complexity of the fracture surfaces of swelled isotactic polypropylene Y1600 in supercritical carbon dioxide fluid through the consideration...
Inverse statistics in stock markets: Universality and idiosyncracy (2004)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Yuan, Wei-Kang
Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel...
Multifractality of Drop Breakup in Air-blast Nozzle Atomization Process (2004)
The multifractal nature of drop breakup in air-blast nozzle atomization process has been studied. We apply the multiplier method to extract the negative and the positive parts of the f(alpha) curve...
Does randomness in multifractals imply latent dimensions? (2004)
Negative, or latent, dimensions have always attracted a strong interest since their discovery. When randomness is introduced in multifractals, the sample-to-sample fluctuations of multifractal...
Non-Parametric Analyses of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes (2002)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We apply two non-parametric methods to test further the hypothesis that log-periodicity characterizes the detrended price trajectory of large financial indices prior to financial crashes or strong...
Generalized q-Analysis of Log-Periodicity: Applications to Critical Ruptures (2002)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We introduce a generalization of the q-analysis, which provides a novel non-parametric tool for the description and detection of log-periodic structures associated with discrete scale invariance. We...
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We estimate the probability that random noise, of several plausible standard distributions, creates a false alarm that a periodicity (or log-periodicity) is found in a time series. We investigate...
Evidence of Intermittent Cascades from Discrete Hierarchical Dissipation in Turbulence (2001)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Sornette, Didier
We present the results of a search of log-periodic corrections to scaling in the moments of the energy dissipation rate in experiments at high Reynolds number (2500) of three-dimensional fully...
Under the formalism of annealed averaging of the partition function, a type of random multifractal measures with their multipliers satisfying exponentially distributed is investigated in detail....
Features arising from randomly multiplicative measures (2000)
Zhou, Wei-Xing, Liu, Hai-Feng, Yu, Zun-Hong
Under the formalism of annealed averaging of the partition function, two types of random multifractal measures with their probability of multipliers satisfying power distribution and triangular...
Didier Sornette, Wei-Xing Zhou
We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag--lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists of constructing a distance...
Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We analyze the quarterly average sale prices of new houses sold in the USA as a whole, in the northeast, midwest, south, and west of the USA, in each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia of...
Detrended fluctuation analysis of intertrade durations
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
The intraday pattern, long memory, and multifractal nature of the intertrade durations, which are defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, are investigated based upon the...
Fundamental Factors versus Herding in the 2000-2005 US Stock Market and Prediction
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We present a general methodology to incorporate fundamental economic factors to our previous theory of herding to describe bubbles and antibubbles. We start from the strong form of Rational...
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We have recently introduced the ``thermal optimal path'' (TOP) method to investigate the real-time lead-lag structure between two time series. The TOP method consists in searching for a robust...
Multifractal analysis of Chinese stock volatilities based on partition function approach
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou
We have performed detailed multifractal analysis on the minutely volatility of two indexes and 1139 stocks in the Chinese stock markets based on the partition function approach. The partition...
Direct evidence for inversion formula in multifractal financial volatility measure
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou
The inversion formula for conservative multifractal measures was unveiled mathematically a decade ago, which is however not well tested in real complex systems. In this Letter, we propose to verify...
A case study of speculative financial bubbles in the South African stock market 2003-2006
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We tested 45 indices and common stocks traded in the South African stock market for the possible existence of a bubble over the period from Jan. 2003 to May 2006. A bubble is defined by a...
On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model
Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement...
Intraday pattern in bid-ask spreads and its power-law relaxation for Chinese A-share stocks
We use high-frequency data of 1364 Chinese A-share stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange to investigate the intraday patterns in the bid-ask spreads. The daily...
Self-fulfilling Ising Model of Financial Markets
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained...
Multiscaling behavior in the volatility return intervals of Chinese indices
We investigate the probability distribution of the return intervals $\tau$ between successive 1-min volatilities of two Chinese indices exceeding a certain threshold $q$. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS)...
Emergence of long memory in stock volatility from a modified Mike-Farmer model
The Mike-Farmer (MF) model was constructed empirically based on the continuous double auction mechanism in an order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the cubic law of returns and the...
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Liang Guo, Wei-Xing Zhou
A phenomenological investigation of the endogenous and exogenous dynamics in the fluctuations of capital fluxes is investigated on the Chinese stock market using mean-variance analysis, fluctuation...
Empirical regularities of opening call auction in Chinese stock market
Gao-Feng Gu, Fei Ren, Xiao-Hui Ni, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
We study the statistical regularities of opening call auction using the ultra-high-frequency data of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. The distribution of the relative...
Scale invariant multiplier and multifractality of absolute returns in stock markets
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou
The statistical properties of the multipliers of the absolute returns are investigated using one-minute high-frequency data of financial time series. The multiplier distribution is found to be...
Empirical distributions of Chinese stock returns at different microscopic timescales
Gao-Feng Gu, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
We study the distributions of event-time returns and clock-time returns at different microscopic timescales using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the limit-order books of 23 stocks traded in...
Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets
We study dynamical behavior of the Chinese stock markets by investigating the statistical properties of daily ensemble returns and varieties defined respectively as the mean and the standard...
Guo-Hua Mu, Wei Chen, J\'anos Kert\'esz, Wei-Xing Zhou
The distribution of trade sizes and trading volumes are investigated based on the limit order book data of 22 liquid Chinese stocks listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the whole year 2003. We...
Multifractality in stock indexes: Fact or fiction?
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou
Multifractal analysis and extensive statistical tests are performed upon intraday minutely data within individual trading days for four stock market indexes (including HSI, SZSC, S&P500, and NASDAQ)...
The components of empirical multifractality in financial returns
We perform a systematic investigation on the components of the empirical multifractality of financial returns using the daily data of Dow Jones Industrial Average from 26 May 1896 to 27 April 2007 as...
Didier Sornette, Wei-Xing Zhou
Following a long tradition of physicists who have noticed that the Ising model provides a general background to build realistic models of social interactions, we study a model of financial price...
Gao-Feng Gu, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
The statistical properties of the bid-ask spread of a frequently traded Chinese stock listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange are investigated using the limit-order book data. Three different...
Empirical regularities of order placement in the Chinese stock market
Gao-Feng Gu, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
Using ultra-high-frequency data extracted from the order flows of 23 stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, we study the empirical regularities of order placement in the opening call auction,...
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We analyze 27 house price indexes of Las Vegas from Jun. 1983 to Mar. 2005, corresponding to 27 different zip codes. These analyses confirm the existence of a real-estate bubble, defined as a price...
Scaling and memory in the return intervals of realized volatility
Fei Ren, Gao-Feng Gu, Wei-Xing Zhou
We perform return interval analysis of 1-min {\em{realized volatility}} defined by the sum of absolute high-frequency intraday returns for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSEC) and 22...
Inverse statistics in stock markets: Universality and idiosyncracy
Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel...
Universal price impact functions of individual trades in an order-driven market
The trade size $\omega$ has direct impact on the price formation of the stock traded. Econophysical analyses of transaction data for the US and Australian stock markets have uncovered market-specific...
Non-Parametric Analyses of Log-Periodic Precursors to Financial Crashes
Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette
We apply two non-parametric methods to test further the hypothesis that log-periodicity characterizes the detrended price trajectory of large financial indices prior to financial crashes or strong...
Long-term correlations and multifractal analysis of trading volumes for Chinese stocks
Guo-Hua Mu, Wei Chen, J\'anos Kert\'esz, Wei-Xing Zhou
We investigate the temporal correlations and multifractal nature of trading volume of 22 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2003. We find that the trading volume exhibit...
Scaling in the distribution of intertrade durations of Chinese stocks
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
The distribution of intertrade durations, defined as the waiting times between two consecutive transactions, is investigated based upon the limit order book data of 23 liquid Chinese stocks listed on...
Empirical shape function of limit-order books in the Chinese stock market
Gao-Feng Gu, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
We have analyzed the statistical probabilities of limit-order book (LOB) shape through building the book using the ultra-high-frequency data from 23 liquid stocks traded on the Shenzhen Stock...
Modified detrended fluctuation analysis based on empirical mode decomposition
Xi-Yuan Qian, Wei-Xing Zhou, Gao-Feng Gu
Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) is a simple but very efficient method for investigating the power-law long-term correlations of non-stationary time series, in which a detrending step is...
Statistical properties of volatility return intervals of Chinese stocks
Fei Ren, Liang Guo, Wei-Xing Zhou
The statistical properties of the return intervals $\tau_q$ between successive 1-min volatilities of 30 liquid Chinese stocks exceeding a certain threshold $q$ are carefully studied. The...
Xi-Yuan Qian, Fu-Tie Song, Wei-Xing Zhou
We investigate the behavior of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index for the period from 1990:12 to 2007:06 using an unconstrained two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an...
Relaxation dynamics of aftershocks after large volatility shocks in the SSEC index
The relaxation dynamics of aftershocks after large volatility shocks are investigated based on two high-frequency data sets of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) index. Compared with...
Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis for two nonstationary signals
It is ubiquitous in natural and social sciences that two variables, recorded temporally or spatially in a complex system, are cross-correlated and possess multifractal features. We propose a new...
We investigate the probability distributions of the recurrence intervals $\tau$ between consecutive 1-min returns above a positive threshold $q>0$ or below a negative threshold $q
Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles
Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou, Didier Sornette, Ryan Woodard, Ken Bastiaensen, Peter Cauwels
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of...
Bubble Diagnosis and Prediction of the 2005-2007 and 2008-2009 Chinese stock market bubbles
Zhi-Qiang JIANG, Wei-Xing ZHOU, Didier SORNETTE, Ryan WOODARD, Ken BASTIAENSEN, Peter CAUWELS
By combining (i) the economic theory of rational expectation bubbles, (ii) behavioral finance on imitation and herding of investors and traders and (iii) the mathematical and statistical physics of...
Meng-Cen Qian, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Wei-Xing Zhou
The investigations of financial markets from a complex network perspective have unveiled many phenomenological properties, in which the majority of these studies map the financial markets into one...
Scaling and memory in the non-poisson process of limit order cancelation
Xiao-Hui Ni, Zhi-Qiang Jiang, Gao-Feng Gu, Fei Ren, Wei Chen, Wei-Xing Zhou
The order submission and cancelation processes are two crucial aspects in the price formation of stocks traded in order-driven markets. We investigate the dynamics of order cancelation by studying...
The Financial Bubble Experiment: advanced diagnostics and forecasts of bubble terminations
Didier Sornette, Maxim Fedorovsky, Stefan Reimann, Hilary Woodard, Ryan Woodard, Wei-Xing Zhou
This is the first delivery of the Financial Bubble Experiment that our group has recently launched within the Financial Crisis Observatory (FCO) at ETH Zurich (\url{http://www.er.ethz.ch/fco/})