Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making (2009)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott, Soon, Willie
Policymakers need to know whether prediction is possible and if so whether any proposed forecasting method will provide forecasts that are substantively more accurate than those from the relevant...
Benchmark forecasts for climate change (2008)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J. Scott, Soon, Willie
Climate is complex, uncertain, and, over horizons that are relevant for policy decisions, varies little. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we determined that for such a...
Benchmark Forecasts for Climate Change (2008)
Green, Kester C, Armstrong, J. Scott, Soon, Willie
We assessed three important criteria of forecastability--simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to many causal variables and their variable interactions. There is uncertainty...
Benchmark forecasts for climate change (2008)
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J Scott, Soon, Willie
We assessed three important criteria of forecastability—simplicity, certainty, and variability. Climate is complex due to many causal variables and their variable interactions. There is uncertainty...
Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (2008)
Arthur B. Robinson, Sallie L. Baliunas, Willie Soon, W. Robinson
ABSTRACT A review of the research literature concerning the environmental consequences of increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide leads to the conclusion that increases during the 20th Century...
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit (2008)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C, Soon, Willie
Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports...
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit (2007)
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Soon, Willie
The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on...
Gregory W. Henry, Sallie L. Baliunas, Robert Donahue Francis, Francis C. Fekel, Willie Soon
We present the results of an analysis of time-series photometry, Ca II H and K spectrophotometry, and high-dispersion visible spectra of nine nearby Sun-like stars recently identied as having...
A review of the recent refereed literature fails to confirm quantitatively that carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing was the prime mover in the changes in temperature, ice-sheet volume, and related...
Reconstructing climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years: a reappraisal (2003)
Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas, Craig Idso, Sherwood Idso, David R. Legates
The 1000-year climatic and environmental history of the Earth contained in various proxy records is examined. As indicators, the proxies duly represent or record aspects of local climate. Questions...
Lifetime of Surface Features and Stellar Rotation: A Wavelet Time-Frequency Approach (1998)
Soon, Willie, Frick, Peter, Baliunas, Sallie
We explore subtle variations in disk-integrated measurements spanning $\lsim$ 18 years of stellar surface magnetism by using a newly developed time-frequency gapped wavelet algorithm. We present...
Properties of Sun-like Stars with Planets: ρ¹ Cancri, τ Boötis, and v Andromedae (1997)
Sallie Baliunas, Gregory Henry, Robert Donahue, Francis Fekel, Willie Soon
Planets have been reported orbiting the Sun-like stars r 1 Cnc, t Boo, and y And based on low-amplitude radial velocity variations. We have derived information on the first two stars from analysis of...
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., Soon, Willie
The extinction of polar bears by the end of the 21st century has been predicted and calls have been made to list them as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. The decision on...
Benchmark forecasts for climate change
Green, Kesten C, Armstrong, J Scott, Soon, Willie
Climate is complex, uncertain, and, over horizons that are relevant for policy decisions, varies little. Using evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles, we determined that for such a...